Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens Picks and Predictions October 21st 2024

Bucs-Ravens a clash of high-powered offenses

The Ravens are favored on the road as they take on the Buccaneers at 8:15 ET on Monday, October 21st at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The game is being televised on ESPN, and the Ravens’ money line odds are -193, while the Buccaneers’ money line odds are +160. Baltimore is favored by -3.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 48 points.

Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Ravens at Buccaneers
• Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa Bay
• Date: Monday, October 21st
• Betting Odds BAL -193 | TB +160 O/U 48

The Ravens Can Win If…

The Ravens have climbed to 2nd in our NFL power rankings and have a 70.9% chance of winning the AFC North. After starting the season with two losses, Baltimore has won four straight, including a 30-23 victory over the Commanders in week 6. They were favored by 7 points in that game, so the win was a push against the spread. The over hit, with the teams combining for 53 points.

Baltimore’s O/U record is 5-1 this season, with the over hitting in two straight games. Their games have averaged 54.3 points, while the O/U line has been 47.1. Against the spread, the Ravens are 3-2-1, including 3-1-1 as favorites.

Heading into week 7, the Ravens are 2nd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29.5 points per game (3rd in the NFL) and leading the league with 453.7 passing yards per game. They also rank 8th in passing yards per game, with 248.3, despite being 21st in pass attempts. On the ground, Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing attempts and yards, with 205.3 per game. They have been excellent on 3rd down, converting 51.5% of their attempts, but rank 29th in red zone conversion percentage.

Lamar Jackson has been on fire, throwing for 323 yards (20/26) and a touchdown in week 6 against the Commanders. Before that, he had a 348-yard, 4-touchdown game in week 5 and a 135 passer rating in week 4. Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards on 24 carries in week 6, and Zay Flowers had 9 catches for 132 yards.

Despite giving up 253 passing yards, the Ravens’ defense held Washington to just 52 rushing yards on 18 attempts in their 30-23 win. Washington finished with 305 total yards, and Baltimore limited them to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. They also recorded three sacks and won the quarterback hit battle with a +4 differential.

Washington did find the end zone twice through the air, as the Ravens allowed a completion percentage of 68.6%. However, Baltimore’s defense tightened up when needed, helping the Ravens come out on top.

• Through their last three games, the Ravens have a record of 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 2-0-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Baltimore has a record of 6-4. In these contests, the team went just 5-4-1 against the spread, while going 6-3-1 on the over-under.

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

Heading into week 7, the Buccaneers have a 4-2 record, putting them 2nd in the NFC South. After a week 5 loss to the Falcons, Tampa Bay bounced back with a 51-27 win over the Saints in week 6. They were 3.5-point favorites in that game and easily covered the spread. The 78 combined points also went well over the 42.5-point line, marking the third straight game the over has hit in Bucs games.

According to our projections, Tampa Bay has a 69.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 44.1% chance of winning the division. They rank 10th in our NFL power rankings and have a +6.2 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, the Bucs are 4-2, with a 2-1 record as both favorites and underdogs.

Heading into week 7, the Buccaneers are 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.7, and they rank 9th in total yards per game with 367.2. They are 11th in passing yards per game (230.3) and 15th in passing attempts. On the ground, Tampa Bay is 18th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game, with 136.8. They have been strong on 3rd down, converting 47.1% of their attempts, which ranks 3rd in the league, but they are 27th in red zone conversion percentage despite ranking 4th in red zone attempts. Our offensive power rankings have them 7th in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield threw for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns in week 6, but he also had 3 interceptions. He finished 24 of 36 with a passer rating of 97. Chris Godwin led the team with 11 catches for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Sean Tucker rushed for 136 yards on 14 carries. Tampa Bay scored 20 points in the 4th quarter and converted 6 of 10 3rd downs, along with 4 of 5 red zone attempts.

In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense came up with five sacks and forced two interceptions, helping Tampa Bay to a 51-27 win over the Saints. The defense was also tough against the run, allowing just 81 yards on 21 attempts. Against the pass, they gave up 222 yards and one touchdown, while holding the Saints to a 55% completion rate. Additionally, they allowed the Saints to convert only 30.8% of their third down attempts.

• The Buccaneers have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Across Tampa Bay’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 6-4. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Lean

Our model has the Buccaneers coming out on top by a score of 25-23 in their week seven matchup against the Ravens. With the point spread sitting at +3.5 in favor of the Buccaneers, we are recommending taking them to cover as home underdogs.

For this game, we are also leaning towards taking the over, as the line is currently at 48 points, and our projections have this game finishing with 48 combined points.

NFL Latest Picks & Previews

In what promises to be a thrilling Monday night matchup, the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. Both teams are tied for first place in their respective divisions and boast some of the most potent offenses in the league. With both sides averaging close to 30 points per game, this clash could turn into a high-scoring affair, especially considering the weaknesses in both teams’ pass defenses.

Offensive Juggernauts Collide

Both the Ravens and Buccaneers come into the game with 4-2 records, sharing their division leads in the AFC North and NFC South. Statistically, they are among the top offensive teams in the NFL:

• The Buccaneers are tied for second in the league with 29.7 points per game, led by their dynamic quarterback Baker Mayfield and an arsenal of offensive weapons.
• The Ravens, meanwhile, are ranked first in total yards per game with 453.7 yards and are fourth in scoring at 29.5 points per game, powered by the dual-threat capabilities of Lamar Jackson.

The game could see fireworks, as both teams are capable of putting up big numbers on the scoreboard.

Pass Defenses Struggling

While the offenses shine, both teams struggle in pass defense, which could open the door for an aerial showdown:

• Baltimore ranks 31st in the NFL, giving up an average of 275.7 passing yards per game, while Tampa Bay isn’t far behind, ranking 28th and allowing 252.3 passing yards per game.

This presents an opportunity for both quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield—to exploit their opponents’ weak secondaries. With such defensive vulnerabilities, the potential for a high-scoring contest is high, and big plays through the air may determine the game’s outcome.

Baltimore’s Dominant Rushing Attack

A major storyline heading into this game is Baltimore’s league-leading run game. The addition of All-Pro running back Derrick Henry has bolstered an already powerful rushing attack:

• Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (704), attempts (119), and touchdowns (8), establishing himself as the centerpiece of Baltimore’s offense. His ability to break tackles and extend plays makes him a constant threat, especially against a Buccaneers defense that has shown vulnerability in defending the pass but could struggle against Henry’s physicality.

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh emphasized how unique Henry is: “He’s one of one,” he said. “There just aren’t many players like him.”

Baltimore’s ground game could control the tempo, especially if the Ravens get an early lead, forcing Tampa Bay into passing situations.

Lamar Jackson’s MVP-Caliber Season

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore’s two-time MVP quarterback, is having another impressive season, continuing to demonstrate his dual-threat abilities:

• Jackson has thrown for 1,529 yards with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions through six games. He’s also contributed significantly on the ground, rushing for 403 yards and two scores, making him the second-leading rusher on his team.

Perhaps even more impressive is Jackson’s track record against NFC opponents, where he holds an unprecedented 22-1 record. His ability to win across conferences is unmatched, and he’s a perfect 2-0 against the Buccaneers.

Buccaneers Offense: Mayfield Leading the Charge

On the other side, Baker Mayfield is having an excellent season in Tampa Bay, efficiently leading the Bucs’ offense:

• Mayfield has completed 134 of 189 passes for 1,489 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His ability to spread the ball to his talented receiving corps has been a driving force behind Tampa Bay’s offense, which ranks 11th in passing, averaging 230.3 yards per game.

With star receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans—both tied for the league lead with five receiving touchdowns each—Mayfield has plenty of firepower to keep pace with Baltimore’s offense. However, Evans is nursing a hamstring injury and missed practice earlier this week. His status will be a critical factor in Tampa Bay’s offensive production.

Buccaneers’ Rushing Attack: An Emerging Threat

While Tampa Bay’s run game isn’t as formidable as Baltimore’s, they have a rising talent in rookie Bucky Irving. Irving has rushed for 328 yards this season, but it was second-year player Sean Tucker who stole the spotlight last week:

• Tucker racked up 136 rushing yards and 56 receiving yards in a dominant 51-27 victory over the New Orleans Saints, showcasing his versatility. If Tampa Bay’s offensive line can give him space, Tucker could be an X-factor.

However, running the ball against Baltimore won’t be easy. The Ravens’ defense ranks No. 1 against the run, allowing just 59.0 rushing yards per game, led by physical linemen Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Michael Pierce.

Defensive Showdown: Can Either Side Hold?

Both defenses, while struggling against the pass, have strong front sevens. For Baltimore, their run defense is anchored by fierce tacklers, and their ability to shut down opposing rushing attacks could force the Buccaneers to rely heavily on Mayfield and the passing game.

Baker Mayfield acknowledges the challenge: “They’re physical. They want to be the bully,” he said of the Ravens’ defense. With Tampa Bay potentially missing Evans and facing the league’s best run defense, Mayfield will need to be at his best to keep the Bucs competitive.

Injury Watch

• Baltimore Ravens: None of the Ravens’ starters missed practice, indicating they will be fully healthy for the game. Cornerback Arthur Maulet could make his season debut, bolstering the secondary.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans missed practice due to a hamstring injury, and Antoine Winfield Jr., the team’s All-Pro safety, is limited with a foot injury. Evans’ absence could severely hamper Tampa Bay’s ability to keep pace with Baltimore’s high-powered offense.

Game Outlook: Who Has the Edge?

While both offenses are explosive, Baltimore’s advantage in the ground game, led by Derrick Henry, and their suffocating run defense give them a slight edge. The game may come down to whether Lamar Jackson can continue his NFC dominance or if Baker Mayfield can find a way to exploit Baltimore’s weak pass defense.

The injury status of Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. will be crucial for the Buccaneers, especially considering how evenly matched these teams are offensively.

Prediction: Ravens 34, Buccaneers 27