Los Angeles Fc vs San Jose Earthquakes Picks and Predictions October 19th 2024

LAFC tune up for playoffs vs. last-place Earthquakes

With the playoffs looming and home-field advantage already secured for Round 1, Los Angeles FC (LAFC) enter their final regular-season match against the last-place San Jose Earthquakes with more than just pride at stake. Though the odds are slim, LAFC still have an outside shot at overtaking their cross-town rivals, the LA Galaxy, for the top spot in the Western Conference.

As Decision Day approaches, LAFC’s goal is clear: continue their dominant form, finish the season on a high note, and carry that momentum into the postseason.

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The Stakes: LAFC Eye Slim Shot at First Place

LAFC (18-8-7, 61 points) head into their clash against San Jose needing a win to keep any hope of topping the Western Conference alive. For LAFC to claim first place, two things must happen: they must defeat the Earthquakes and overturn a two-goal differential with the Galaxy, while the Galaxy must lose to the Houston Dynamo. LAFC’s current goal differential (+18) is just shy of the Galaxy’s (+20), meaning LAFC not only need to win but must do so decisively.

Though the scenario is unlikely, head coach Steve Cherundolo remains focused on finishing the regular season strong.

“If you do your job, but (outside) results don’t go your way, there’s no point in making that a negative,” Cherundolo explained. “We’ve won a couple of games in a row now, and to finish the season on a high note with a win is very important.”

Formidable LAFC: Red-Hot Heading into the Playoffs

LAFC are currently riding a wave of momentum, boasting a five-match winning streak across all competitions. During this impressive run, they’ve outscored opponents 11-3, showcasing both their offensive firepower and defensive solidity. This hot streak positions them as one of the most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs.

Denis Bouanga has been at the forefront of LAFC’s attack. With 19 goals on the season, Bouanga is just one goal shy of his team-leading total from last year. He also leads the team with 11 assists, underlining his playmaking abilities. Having missed the recent 2-1 win over Vancouver due to international duty, Bouanga is expected to return to the lineup and add another layer of threat against San Jose.

Complementing Bouanga’s efforts is Mateusz Bogusz, who has quietly put together an impressive season with 15 goals. Together, these two form one of the most potent attacking duos in the league, and they will look to exploit the Earthquakes’ shaky defense.

San Jose Earthquakes: A Season of Struggles

On the other side of the pitch, the San Jose Earthquakes (6-24-3, 21 points) have endured a tough campaign, marred by defensive lapses and inconsistency. They currently sit at the bottom of the Western Conference and have the league’s worst defensive record, having conceded a staggering 75 goals this season.

San Jose’s form since September reflects their struggles. With just one win in their last six matches (1-4-1), the Earthquakes are limping toward the finish line of an 11th consecutive season without a winning record. Their defense has been their Achilles’ heel, and facing LAFC’s in-form attack could spell trouble.

However, San Jose have shown glimpses of potential. They managed a surprising 3-1 victory over LAFC at home back in May, giving them some hope of being able to compete. But since then, LAFC have dominated their meetings, outscoring the Earthquakes 10-3 in two subsequent matches (one regular season, one Leagues Cup).

Despite the challenges, San Jose interim coach Ian Russell remains optimistic. “LAFC is very good, and they’re still playing for positions in the standings. We do match up pretty well against them. We beat them already this season, so just go down there, play good football, defend well, and try to hurt them,” Russell said.

Key Players to Watch: LAFC vs. Earthquakes

For LAFC, Denis Bouanga will be the focal point of the attack, while Mateusz Bogusz provides strong secondary scoring. Their combination of goals and assists makes LAFC a multidimensional threat, capable of breaking down defenses both on the counterattack and in set-piece situations.

For the Earthquakes, Amahl Pellegrino leads the way with seven goals, while Jeremy Ebobisse and Hernan Lopez have each contributed six goals. San Jose’s top playmaker, Cristian Espinoza, ranks eighth in MLS with 14 assists, making him their best hope for creating chances against LAFC’s stout defense.

Tactical Outlook: LAFC to Dictate the Game

LAFC’s Approach: Given their recent form and superior firepower, LAFC will likely take the initiative from the first whistle. Expect them to dominate possession and push high up the field to capitalize on San Jose’s vulnerable backline. Bouanga’s return will be crucial, as he is adept at breaking down defenses with his pace, movement, and finishing.

San Jose’s Strategy: For San Jose, defense will be the key. With 75 goals conceded this season, they need to tighten up at the back if they want to avoid another lopsided result. Russell’s comments suggest that the Earthquakes will attempt to stay compact defensively and look for opportunities to counterattack, hoping to replicate their earlier season success against LAFC.

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The Big Picture: Momentum Is Everything

For LAFC, this match offers an opportunity to continue building momentum. Though the possibility of finishing first in the Western Conference is slim, a win here would extend their winning streak to six matches, further boosting their confidence as they enter the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Earthquakes are simply looking to end their season on a positive note. With little to play for in terms of standings, this match is more about salvaging pride and giving their fans one final glimpse of what could be a brighter future.

Final Thoughts

LAFC are heavy favorites in this matchup, given their current form, offensive prowess, and home-field advantage. San Jose’s defensive woes make it difficult to imagine an upset, but as they proved earlier in the season, they are capable of surprising stronger opponents on their day. Regardless of the outcome, LAFC’s primary goal will be to stay sharp and carry their winning form into the playoffs, where they are sure to be one of the teams to watch.