Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions October 23rd 2024

76ers vs Bucks October 23rd 2024

At 7:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-156) will take on the Philadelphia 76ers (+132) in a matchup between Eastern Conference foes. The Bucks are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 223.5. ESPN will broadcast the game.

Last year, the Bucks finished 49-33 and were the 3rd seed in the East. The 76ers, who were 7th in the conference at 47-35, will be the home team tonight at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

Bucks vs. 76ers Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
• Where: Philadelphia at Wells Fargo Center
• Date: Wednesday, October 23rd
• Betting Odds MIL -3.5, MIL -156 | PHI +132 O/U 223.5

The Bucks Can Win If…

The Bucks enter this season ranked 8th in our power rankings, with a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 35.1% chance of winning their division. Last season, Milwaukee finished 49-33, placing 3rd in the Eastern Conference. They were 31-11 at home and 18-22 on the road, finishing 1st in their division with a 10-7 record.

Against the spread, the Bucks went 33-49, and they were 45-22 straight-up when favored. They were favored in 67 games, covering in 29. At home, they were 19-23 ATS, and on the road, they went 14-26. Their games averaged 235.3 points, with an over/under record of 41-41.

Ranked 3rd in our preseason offensive power rankings, the Bucks averaged 119.0 points per game last season, placing 4th in the league. They were 6th in possessions per game (99.9) and 19th in field goal attempts per game (88.5), but they made the most of their opportunities, shooting 48.7% from the field (8th). Milwaukee was 5th in both three-pointers made (14.2) and attempted (38.1) per game, hitting 37.3% from deep (11th). They also ranked 3rd in free throw attempts per game (23.9), converting 77.4% (19th).

Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists last season, is projected to be 3rd in our league-wide points projections. Damian Lillard, who averaged 24.3 points and 7 assists, is projected to be 15th in points and 8th in three-pointers made. Gary Trent Jr., a key addition from the Raptors, is projected to be 26th in three-pointers made. Khris Middleton is out, and Brook Lopez is projected to be 70th in three-pointers made.

Milwaukee enters the season ranked 14th in our defensive power rankings, after allowing 116.4 points per game last year, which was 21st in the NBA. They held opponents to 47.1% shooting from the field, ranking 13th, and were 8th in three-point defense, allowing 35.5% shooting. Inside the arc, they held opponents to 54.1% shooting, ranking 10th in two-point defense.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to play, and he remains one of the league’s top rebounders, with Milwaukee finishing 3rd in defensive rebounding last year. Brook Lopez, one of the NBA’s best shot-blockers, adds to their interior defense, and the Bucks averaged 5.0 blocks per game, ranking 16th in the league. They were 26th in steals, with 6.8 per game.

• Although Milwaukee has a straight up record of 0-5 in their last five road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 104 points per game in these games.
• As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Milwaukee posted a straight up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
• Over their last three games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The 76ers Can Win If…

Ranked 3rd in our preseason power rankings, the 76ers are projected to have a 97.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 10.8% chance of winning their division. Last season, they finished 47-35, placing 3rd in their division and 7th in the Eastern Conference. At home, they were 25-16, with a +4.9 scoring margin, and on the road, they went 22-19.

Against the spread, the 76ers had a 43-39 record and were 38-13 straight-up when favored. They struggled as the underdog, going 9-22. Their games averaged 226.1 points, with an average O/U line of 226.9, and they finished 42-40 on over/unders.

Last season, the 76ers ranked 5th in our offensive power rankings. They averaged 114.6 points per game (15th) on 97.3 possessions per game (18th). Philadelphia shot 46.4% from the field (23rd) and made 12.1 threes per game (22nd) on 36.3% shooting (18th). They attempted 33.3 threes per game (19th) and were 4th in free throw attempts per game (23.6), hitting 82.6% from the line (2nd). The 76ers also averaged 11.0 offensive rebounds per game (9th).

With Joel Embiid out, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are projected to lead the team in scoring. Maxey is projected to finish 10th among PGs, while George is 4th among SFs. George, who averaged 22.6 points per game last season, is also projected to lead the team in three-pointers made, with Maxey right behind him.

Last season, the 76ers were one of the NBA’s top defensive teams, finishing 5th in our defensive power rankings. They allowed 111.5 points per game, ranking 9th in the league, and held opponents to 35.3% shooting from beyond the arc, the 5th-best mark in the NBA. Philadelphia also led the league in steals, averaging 8.5 per game, and were 7th in blocked shots, with 6.0 per contest.

Joel Embiid, one of the league’s top rebounders and shot-blockers, is out, but Andre Drummond will help inside. The 76ers ranked 23rd in defensive rebounding last season. They allowed opponents to shoot 46.9% from the field, ranking 11th, and were 10th in effective field-goal percentage defense (53.8%).

• In their last three home games, Philadelphia has averaged 105 points per game while allowing 107. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the 76ers have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 4-1.
• In their last five games, the 76ers have an over/under record of 3-2 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

We’re putting our money on the Bucks to win, and have the projected score sitting at 152-99. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Bucks at -3.5.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 223.5 and given that our model is projecting 251 points between the teams, we like the over.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers enter the 2024-25 NBA season with much to prove after falling short of expectations last year. Both teams were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, setting the stage for a fresh start when they meet in their season opener on Wednesday in Philadelphia. For the third straight season, these two Eastern Conference powerhouses will face off in their respective opening games. However, this year’s matchup comes with significant absences on the 76ers’ side, shifting the balance of power towards Milwaukee.

ScoresandStats | The Edge You’ve Been Looking For

Bucks vs. 76ers: Familiar Foes in Season Openers

Milwaukee and Philadelphia have developed a unique rivalry, meeting in their third consecutive season opener. However, Wednesday’s contest will look different without some of the usual star power. The Bucks will take the court led by the formidable duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, while the 76ers will be missing key players like Joel Embiid and Paul George.

Despite their shared history, this game is poised to be a lopsided affair, given the absence of Philadelphia’s top talent.

Milwaukee Bucks: A New Era Under Doc Rivers

After a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the Indiana Pacers last season, the Bucks are eager to bounce back. They’ll be playing their first full season under head coach Doc Rivers, who took over midway through last season. Rivers, previously the coach of the 76ers, is familiar with both teams, which could give Milwaukee an edge in this opener.

Leading the charge will be Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had another stellar season in 2023-24, averaging 30.4 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. Alongside him is Damian Lillard, who contributed 24.3 points and 7.0 assists in his first season with the Bucks.

Despite their potent offense—ranking fourth in the league at 119.0 points per game last season—the Bucks struggled defensively, allowing 116.4 points per game, which ranked 21st in the NBA. This defensive weakness will be something to watch as the season progresses.

One key absence for the Bucks is Khris Middleton, who is still recovering from offseason surgeries on both ankles. His absence could impact Milwaukee’s depth, but with the firepower of Antetokounmpo and Lillard, they are still expected to dominate.

Philadelphia 76ers: Injury Woes to Start the Season

The 76ers had high hopes heading into the 2024-25 season with the addition of Paul George to their roster, but those expectations are already tempered by significant injury news. Both George and MVP Joel Embiid will miss Wednesday’s game, leaving Philadelphia without its two biggest stars.

• Joel Embiid, who won the NBA MVP last season after averaging 34.7 points and 11.0 rebounds per game, is still recovering from a knee injury that limited him to just 39 games last year. He underwent in-season knee surgery in 2023-24 and is expected to miss the first three games this season as he ramps up his recovery.
• Paul George, the Sixers’ marquee offseason acquisition, signed a four-year, $212 million deal to bring veteran leadership and scoring to Philadelphia. He averaged 22.6 points with the Los Angeles Clippers last season but will miss the opener due to a knee issue.

In their absence, the 76ers will rely heavily on Tyrese Maxey, last season’s NBA Most Improved Player. Maxey had a breakout year, averaging 25.9 points and 6.2 assists, and earned his first All-Star appearance. He’s eager to lead his team in the absence of Embiid and George, expressing his desire to wash away the “sour taste” left from the 76ers’ first-round playoff exit to the New York Knicks last season.

Key Matchups: Bucks’ Firepower vs. Sixers’ Resilience

Without Embiid and George, the 76ers will need to rely on the scoring and playmaking of Tyrese Maxey and the rest of their supporting cast. Philadelphia will be undermanned, but the Bucks can’t afford to be complacent. Maxey’s ability to get hot and take over games makes him a legitimate threat, even without his superstar teammates.

For the Bucks, the focus will be on how Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard mesh in their second season together. Both players are high-usage, dynamic scorers who will need to find a balance on the court. Lillard emphasized the importance of working together: “We both gotta be aggressive and understand the moments and situations where we can use the other to create an advantage.” The duo’s chemistry will be crucial as Milwaukee aims to return to championship contention.

Bucks’ Defensive Concerns Remain

While Milwaukee’s offense was one of the best in the league last season, their defense was a glaring issue. Ranking just 21st in points allowed per game, the Bucks struggled to stop opponents, often relying on outscoring their competition. Heading into this season, Doc Rivers will need to prioritize defensive improvements if the Bucks hope to go deep into the playoffs. The Sixers, even without Embiid and George, may exploit Milwaukee’s defensive lapses if not addressed.

Recent History: Bucks’ Dominance Over the Sixers

Milwaukee has had the upper hand in recent meetings with Philadelphia, winning all four of their matchups last season. The Bucks have either won or tied the season series against the 76ers every year since the 2012-13 season. This dominance gives Milwaukee confidence heading into Wednesday’s game, especially with the 76ers’ injury setbacks.

Outlook: Bucks Poised to Capitalize on Short-Handed Sixers

With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard leading the way, and the 76ers missing their top stars, the Bucks have a clear advantage in this season opener. However, Milwaukee can’t afford to overlook the resilience of players like Tyrese Maxey, who will be determined to lead Philadelphia in the absence of Embiid and George.

For both teams, this game marks the beginning of a long journey. The Bucks will be looking to cement their status as a top contender in the Eastern Conference, while the 76ers, even without their stars, will hope to remain competitive and build momentum once Embiid and George return.

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