Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions October 24th 2024

Nuggets vs Thunder October 24th 2024

At 10:00 ET, the Thunder (+115) will take on the Nuggets (-137) in a Northwest Division matchup. The over/under line is 225.5.

Last year, Oklahoma City was 57-25 and finished first in the Western Conference. Denver was 57-25 and finished second in the West.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Key Information

We have the Thunder ranked 7th in our pre-season power rankings, with a 96.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 59.2% chance of winning the Northwest Division. Last season, Oklahoma City finished 1st in the Western Conference with a 57-25 record. They were 33-8 at home and 24-17 on the road.

Oklahoma City was 45-37 against the spread and 47-14 straight-up when favored. They were favored in 61 games, covering in 35 of them. Their games averaged 232.8 points, and their average over/under line was 232.2 points. The Thunder went 44-37-1 on over/unders for the season.

Last season, the Thunder ranked 8th in our offensive power rankings, scoring 120.1 points per game (3rd) with 99.7 possessions per game (7th). They shot 49.9% from the field (2nd) and led the league in 3-point percentage at 38.9%, making 13.3 threes per game (8th). They attempted 34.2 threes per game (16th) and 21.5 free throws per game (17th), hitting 82.5% from the line (4th). Oklahoma City struggled on the offensive glass, ranking 29th with 8.8 offensive rebounds per game.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds last season, is projected to lead the league in scoring. Chet Holmgren, who averaged 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds, is projected to be 3rd on the team in scoring and 3rd among centers in 3-pointers made. Luguentz Dort is projected to lead the team in 3-pointers made, ranking 11th among small forwards, while Alex Caruso, acquired from the Bulls, is projected to be 5th on the team in scoring.

We have the Thunder ranked 10th in our defensive power rankings after they allowed 112.7 points per game last season, putting them 11th in the NBA. Oklahoma City held opponents to 45.6% shooting, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and were 15th in three-point defense at 36.4%. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the top rebounders at his position, and Chet Holmgren is projected to be among the league leaders in blocked shots. However, Isaiah Hartenstein, one of their top rebounders and shot-blockers, is currently out.

The Thunder were second in the NBA in blocked shots last season, averaging 6.6 per game, and finished 12th in defensive rebounding. They also ranked second in steals, with 8.5 per game. Opponents shot 52.1% on two-pointers against them, which was the fourth-lowest percentage in the league.

The Nuggets enter the season ranked 5th in our power rankings, with an 83.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 21.6% chance of winning their division. Last season, Denver finished 2nd in the Western Conference with a 57-25 record, going 33-8 at home and 24-17 on the road. They were 2nd in the conference with a 33-19 record in conference games and went 10-6 in divisional matchups, placing 2nd in the Northwest Division.

Denver was favored in 72 games last season, going 33-37 against the spread in those matchups. They had a 21-19 ATS record at home and were 16-24 ATS on the road. The average over/under line for their games was 225.7 points, and their games averaged 224.5 points per game. They finished the season with a 34-46-2 O/U record.

The Nuggets enter the season ranked 6th in our offensive power rankings after finishing 14th in points per game (114.9) last season. They were 28th in possessions per game (96.2) but 4th in field goal percentage (49.6%). Denver attempted 31.2 threes per game (30th) and made 11.7 (25th), shooting 37.4% from deep (9th). They were 29th in free throw attempts per game (19.9) and 25th in free throw percentage (76.2%).

Nikola Jokic, who averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring and rank 5th in the league. Michael Porter Jr. is projected to lead the team in made threes, ranking 18th in the league. Jamal Murray is projected to be 2nd on the team in both points and made threes. Denver also added Russell Westbrook, who is projected to be 5th on the team in scoring.

Last season, the Nuggets ranked 7th in points allowed, giving up 109.6 per game, and head into this year ranked 9th in our defensive power rankings. They held opponents to 46.3% shooting, the 6th-lowest mark in the NBA, and were 4th in effective field-goal percentage allowed. Denver also ranked 10th in blocked shots, with Nikola Jokic projected to be one of the top shot-blockers among centers.

Opponents shot 35.4% from three-point range against the Nuggets, who finished 9th in defensive rebounding. Jokic is one of the league’s top rebounders, and Michael Porter Jr. is also strong on the boards. Denver held opponents to 52.4% shooting inside the arc, the 5th-lowest percentage in the NBA. They averaged 7.1 steals per game, ranking 21st in the league.

Coming in as the underdogs at +2.5, we have the Thunder as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 225.5 and given that our model is projecting 243 points between the teams, we like the over.

Thunder, Nuggets Tip Off in Battle of Title Contenders

Oklahoma City and Denver were expected to be deep contenders in the Western Conference last season, but both teams fell short of the conference finals. However, that’s all in the rearview mirror as the Thunder and Nuggets open their 2024-25 campaigns on Thursday night in Denver.

Oklahoma City Aims for Another Strong Season

The Thunder were the surprise of the league last season, claiming the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with a 57-win season. Oklahoma City swept New Orleans in the first round before falling to the eventual Western Conference champions, the Dallas Mavericks, in six games.

This season, the Thunder are once again poised to challenge for the top seed, and they’ve made some adjustments to bolster their already talented roster. Oklahoma City traded for guard Alex Caruso and signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to add depth to their frontcourt. However, Hartenstein is set to miss at least a month with a broken bone in his left hand, an injury he sustained during a preseason game on October 15.

Hartenstein’s absence leaves Chet Holmgren with the daunting task of guarding Denver’s three-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, on Thursday. Holmgren, a promising young 7-foot-1 power forward, understands that containing Jokic will require a collective team effort.

“It’s not a ‘me’ preparing thing,” Holmgren said of facing Jokic. “It’s more of a ‘we’ preparing thing. He’s a really good player and there is no guarding him. There is no one-on-one matchup for him. You guard him with a whole team.”

The Thunder are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the league’s top young guards, and Holmgren, both of whom form the core of one of the most talented young teams in the NBA. After a 3-1 record against Denver last season, Oklahoma City will look to start their new campaign strong, even with key injuries.

Denver’s Adjustments and High Expectations

The Denver Nuggets are also contenders for the top seed in the West, but they will field a slightly different starting lineup this season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was a key part of their squad last season, has moved on to Orlando, while bench players Reggie Jackson and Justin Holiday are also gone.

Denver made a notable move on draft night, acquiring forward DaRon Holmes II from the Phoenix Suns with the 22nd overall pick. Unfortunately, Holmes tore his Achilles and will miss the entire season. In response, the Nuggets signed veteran forward Dario Saric to back up Jokic.

Perhaps the most intriguing addition to the Nuggets’ roster is veteran guard Russell Westbrook, who signed a two-year deal worth $6.8 million. Westbrook, once an adversary from his days with the Thunder, will now lead Denver’s second unit behind Jamal Murray. Murray, who struggled with knee discomfort during the preseason, may even have to sit out, potentially thrusting Westbrook into the starting lineup.

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Denver’s young guard Christian Braun, a member of their 2023 championship team, is also expected to step up into a starting role, potentially filling the void left by Caldwell-Pope.

As always, Denver’s success will hinge on the performance of their star, Nikola Jokic. The reigning MVP will once again carry the team’s title hopes on his shoulders. Jokic has not been shy about voicing concerns over the team’s lackluster preseason performance.

“The defense was not where it’s supposed to be. We couldn’t make shots. So, we played really bad and poorly the whole preseason,” Jokic said. “Hopefully we can do something a little bit better when the (regular) season comes.”

Opening Night Stakes

With both teams sporting championship aspirations, Thursday’s matchup could be an early indicator of which squad is poised to take control of the Western Conference. Oklahoma City, despite some injuries, boasts a young and talented core eager to build on last season’s success. Denver, meanwhile, is leaning on Jokic to lead them back to the top, while integrating new players into key roles.

It’s the first step in what should be another thrilling NBA season for both title contenders.