2024 NASCAR Xfinity 500 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, November 3, NASCAR’s Cup Series makes their second annual trip to Martinsville Speedway for the Xfinity 500. This marks the final race of the Round of 8 and the 35^th overall race of the season.

At the conclusion of the Xfinity 500, four drivers will be eliminated and the remaining four participants will head to Phoenix and compete for the 2024 NASCAR Championship.

Last weekend, Tyler Reddick won the Straight Talk Wireless 400 in Homestead-Miami, to advance to the Championship Race. He’s joined by Joey Logano who won the South Point 400 in Las Vegas two weeks ago.

The other six Playoff drivers are competing for the remaining two spots in the Final 4. Currently, Kyle Larson is favored to win the Xfinity 500. He is joined by Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and William Byron in the Top 5 odds-on favorites to win this Sunday’s race.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Xfinity 500 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at Martinsville Speedway race.

Xfinity 500 Race Profile

Located in Ridgeway, Virginia, Martinsville Speedway is the only race track to have been on the NASCAR calendar each year since 1949. It’s considered hallowed grounds and one of the most cherished tracks in the sport.

The speedway is shaped like a paper clip and features a concrete surface with a lap distance of 0.526 miles. This short track has four turns of 12 degrees in banking.

Sunday’s Xfinity 500 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 263 miles
• Total Laps: 500 laps
• Stage 1: 130 laps
• Stage 2: 130 laps
• Final Stage: 240 laps

The Xfinity 500 is set to begin at 2:00 pm ET and will air live on NBC.

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Previous Xfinity 500 Winners

There are four drivers all tied with the record for most wins of this race at six apiece. Those drivers are Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Currently, Denny Hamlin is the only active driver with multiple Xfinity 500 wins.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2023: Ryan Blaney
• 2022: Christopher Bell
• 2021: Alex Bowman
• 2020: Chase Elliott
• 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2018: Joey Logano
• 2017: Kyle Busch
• 2016: Jimmie Johnson
• 2015: Jeff Gordon
• 2014: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Playoff Drivers

The following drivers are in the 8-car Playoff field. Let’s take a look at how these drivers have fared in the postseason so far, and how they might do at Martinsville Speedway this weekend:

Tyler Reddick (+2000)

• Playoff Standings: 1
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 20

I must admit, I did not see Tyler Reddick winning the race in Homestead last weekend. I faded him after his poor performances in the Playoffs over the last six weeks. In fact, I removed him from my early predictions of making the Final 4 because he was not racing well at all in the postseason.

Then, the #45 car decided to find his regular season mojo and pull off a shocking Straight Talk Wireless 400 victory last Sunday.

The win locked Reddick into the Championship Race on November 10. It’s fortunate for him because he has not been good at Martinsville over his Cup Series career. In nine starts at this track, he has just two Top 10s, a 19.3 average finish and 1 DNF.

Avoid Reddick this weekend as he’s in cruise control until Phoenix.

Joey Logano (+1400)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 11

Just like with Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano is on cruise control until Phoenix after winning in Las Vegas two races ago. I said to avoid the #22 car last weekend and hopefully you did. Logano finished 28^th at Homestead.

With that said, I would avoid him this weekend as well. Sure, he could pull off a Top 10 finish, but why risk your funds on a driver who is solely focused on the Championship Race now, and not this weekend?

Logano has the third best average finish at Martinsville (10.8) and 19 Top 10s in 31 appearances. So, he has had plenty of success at this venue. Yet, there are toher

Christopher Bell (+1200)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 14
• Top 10: 22

Here’s where things get really interesting. Christopher Bell is one of the remaining Playoff drivers trying to get one of the two available Championship Race spots.

He currently leads the Playoff Standings with a 22-point lead over William Byron. Kyle Larson sits 29 points behind Bell.

Last weekend, Bell nailed my prediction of what I think he could do:

“I believe that Bell will be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised of he won, but I’m not fully convinced that he will win this race for a second straight year.”

Bell finished 4^th and even led three laps. However, he wasn’t able to outrace Reddick, Denny Hamlin or Ryan Blaney last weekend.

This Sunday, Bell needs another strong performance in order to clinch a spot in the Final 4. Unfortunately, he’s had some ups and downs at Martinsville. In nine starts, Bell has one win, one Top 5, three Top 10s, and a 16.2 average finish.

Since his 2022 Xfinity 500 win, Bell has a 19.3 average finish at this track. With that said, I still like Bell to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling.

William Byron (+900) 

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 19

William Byron has impressed me this postseason. The #24 car has put together a strong Playoff run with five Top 6 finishes over the last five races.

He now heads to a track where Byron has had plenty of success at in his young Cup Series career. In 13 starts, Byron has two wins, five Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a 13.8 average finish. Byron won the spring race at Martinsville this year and has two victories in the last five events at this track.

I don’t see Byron sweeping the Martinsville races this year, but I do like for the Hendrick Motorsports driver to finish in the Top 10 and flirt with a Top 5 result.

Kyle Larson (+450)

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 16

Since winning the Bank of America ROVAL a few weeks ago, Larson has two consecutive results outside of the Top 10. He was 11^th at Las Vegas and 13^th at Homestead, which were two tracks he’s been historically strong at.

Now, he heads to Martinsville where the #5 car has been decent at. Earlier in his career, Larson had four DNFs and many finishes outside of the Top 15. However, over the last two years, Larson has turned things around to become a contender every time the Cup Series races at this venue.

In his last four Martinsville appearances, Larson has one win, two runner ups, and a sixth in last year’s Xfinity 500. He won the 2023 spring race here and was runner up in the 2024 spring event. Larson has a 4.0 average finish over the last two Xfinity 500 races.

It’s surprising that the best driver this year, is on the verge of missing out in competing for the Championship. He needs at least a Top 5 finish to have a shot.

Denny Hamlin (+450) 

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 17

Just like with Larson, Denny Hamlin also needs a Top 5 result to have any hope of advancing to the next round. I thought Hamlin could score a Top 5 finish at Homestead last weekend, and he did by coming home third. Unfortunately, that still puts him 18 points below the cutoff line.

The #11 car must like his chances this weekend as he’s been one of the best drivers among the field at Martinsville. In 37 starts, Hamlin has five wins, 19 Top 5s, 25 Top 10s, and a 10.2 average finish which is second best among active drivers.

If anyone can prevent Larson, Bell or Byron from advancing, it’s Hamlin at Martinsville. But will he?

I like for Hamlin to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling. He hasn’t won at this track since 2015, and he hasn’t won this season since the Wurth 400 at Dover on April 28.

Ryan Blaney (+600)

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 16

I have been on the side of the fence that doesn’t think Ryan Blaney will make the Final 4. Since the beginning of the Playoffs, and with each breakdown of the Championship odds, I’ve picked Blaney to be eliminated at the conclusion of third round.

Now, that doesn’t mean the reigning Cup Series champ will go down without a fight. He pulled out a surprising result in Homestead last weekend with a 2^nd place finish.

With that said, Blaney has been a strong driver at Martinsville for his career. In 17 starts, Blaney has one win, nine Top 5s, 11 Top 10s, and an 8.8 average finish which is the best among the field.

Blaney has five consecutive Top 7 results including winning this race last year. Can he win the Xfinity 500 two years in a row?

Since 1949, there’s only been seven drivers to have ever won this race two years in a row. And, some of those names include the sport’s all-time greats like Petty, Yarborough, Waltrip and Johnson. Denny Hamlin was the last driver to accomplish this back in 2009-10.

I don’t see Blaney etching his name among those legends of the sport. That means he’s going to fall short of winning this race on Sunday and advancing to the next round. Blaney is a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling.

Chase Elliott (+800)    

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 17

After suffering from suspension issues in Las Vegas, Elliott bounced back with a 5^th place result at Homestead last weekend. It was his second Top 5 in the last three races and kept him alive in the possibility of moving on to the next round.

I said that Elliott would be a Top 15 driver with a Top 5 ceiling at Homestead, and the #9 car didn’t let me down. This weekend, I see Elliott being a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling.

He has one win, six Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and a 12.7 average finish in 18 starts at Martinsville. Unfortunately, he sits 43 points below the cutoff line and will more than likely miss out on trying to win a second Cup Series Championship. I don’t see Elliott winning on Sunday, but I do see him coming close.

Xfinity 500 Best of The Rest

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, but they still offer value at Martinsville:

Chase Briscoe (+2200)

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9

Chase Briscoe has had a rough go of things since being eliminated from the Playoffs after the first round. Over his last five races, he’s finished 24^th or worse in four of them. Last weekend, Briscoe snapped that streak by scoring a 12^th place result.

It seems like the #14 car might have turned things around and I expect that trend to continue this weekend in Martinsville. Briscoe has five Top 10s in his seven starts at this venue. Additionally, all five of those results have come in the last five races at this track.

Briscoe was 4^th in this race last year and 9^th in 2022. That’s a 6.5 average finish for the last two Xfinity 500 races which is better than his 12.3 average finish at Martinsville. However, that average finish puts him as the fourth best among active drivers. I like for Briscoe to finish in the Top 10 this weekend.

Brad Keselowski (+2800)

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 13

Over his career, Brad Keselowski has been a strong Martinsville driver with two wins, 12 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s and a 13.6 average finish in 29 starts at this track.

Typically, these are the kind of stats that gets you higher on my list. Unfortunately, Keselowski has five consecutive finishes of 17^th or worse. In fact, he’s finished 24^th or worse in four consecutive races at this track and has three finishes of outside the Top 30 in the last seven Martinsville races.

Keselowski was 33 in this race last year and 36 in 2022. So, you might be wondering why I have him on this list at all. The answer is simple, he has +150 odds to finish in the Top 10. I think that’s worthy of a small flier considering he has a 58.6% percent Top 10 finishing rate.

Kyle Busch (+2800)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Kyle Busch is in the same boat as Keselowski. Both veteran drivers have a solid body of work for their career at Martinsville, but they both have fallen off over the last few years.

In 38 starts at this venue, Busch has two wins, 17 Top 5s, 21 Top 10s and a 12.9 average finish. Just as impressive as those numbers are, Busch only has one DNF in all these appearances.

With that said, he’s finished 16^th or worse in four straight appearances at this short track. Yet, his +150 odds of finishing in the Top 10 are also worthy of a flier just like Keselowski and Briscoe.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Xfinity 500

Denny Hamlin (-120) is my choice for the best Top 5 bet this weekend. Currently, he has -120 odds to score a Top 5 result, which offers solid value considering that the #11 car has the most Top 5 results among active drivers.

Hamlin has 19 Top 5 finishes in 37 starts, which gives him a 51.4% Top 5 finishing rate over his lengthy career. Additionally, he has three Top 5 finishes in the last four races including the last two Xfinity 500 events.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Xfinity 500

Chase Briscoe (+130) gets my nod for the best Top 10 bet this weekend. Now, there are other drivers who have more Top 10s and are more desperate to finish in the Top 10 this weekend. However, their odds offer no value. For example, Larson, Hamlin and Blaney all have odds higher than -300 to finish in the Top 10.

Briscoe has +130 odds to finish in the Top 10 and that’s great value in my book. The #14 car has five consecutive Top 10 finishes. In fact, over that span, he has a 7.4 average finish. Briscoe has a 6.5 average finish over the last two Xfinity 500 events and was 10^th in the 2024 spring race at this venue.

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Predictions: Who Wins?

Here we go racing fans! The last race before the sport crowns their 2024 Champion. This Xfinity 500 event won’t be for the feint of hearts. That not only applies to the drivers competing for the two remaining spots in the Final 4, but for fans and bettors as well.

We are going to have an all-out battle on the short track. You are going to seem some aggressive driving which means bumping and knocking people out of the way.

My Top 5 drivers for the Xfinity 500 are Larson, Bell, Byron, Hamlin and Blaney, Briscoe or Elliott.

With that said, this is not easy when it comes to picking the winner of the race especially with what’s at stake. Nevertheless, let’s start dwindling this down.

I don’t see Blaney winning this race two years in a row as it’s less common than you think. I also don’t see Byron sweeping Martinsville or Elliott winning either. The latter has just one win this year and seems to be a step behind the rest of the competition.

So, we’re down to Larson, Bell and Hamlin. All three drivers have wins at this track. Hamlin is the best Martinsville driver among the field. Unfortunately, he hasn’t won at this venue in over nine years. And, he hasn’t won this season in over six months.

I think the victory comes down to Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. The former is the odds-on favorite and the latter offers far better value.

Bell won the 2022 Xfinity 500 race, and Larson won the spring 2023 race at Martinsville. Of the two drivers, Larson is more desperate as he sits below the cutoff line. Bell is leading in Playoff points.

Do we go with Larson two weeks in a row or do we take the better value in Bell? Can Larson answer the bell is the question?

For Larson to make the Final 4, he’s going to have to outperform Bell and his teammate Byron who is also a strong driver at this track.

At Bristol, in the final Playoff race of Round 1, Larson dominated and won. At Charlotte’s road course, in the final Playoff race of Round 2, Larson dominated and won. Do you see where I’m going here?

I can’t ignore Larson winning this weekend just because I picked him last weekend. I’m riding with Larson to victory circle for the Xfinity 500.

Bet: Kyle Larson +450

NASCAR Xfinity 500 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Xfinity 500 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Larson or Byron (-160)

The Hendrick Motorsports teammates have three wins, two runner ups, and five Top 5s in the last five races at Martinsville. Both drivers are competing to advance to the Championship race in Phoenix on November 10.

I picked Larson to win this race, but Byron is more than capable of winning again. I like for one or both of these drivers to crack the Top 3.

Bet: Either To Finish Top 3: Larson or Byron (-160)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+140)
• Toyota (+175)
• Ford (+220)

As you can see from above, I really like Chevrolet this weekend. They have the most manufacturer wins in this race with 32. That’s twice the number of wins that Ford has. Additionally, they’ve won four of the last six Martinsville races. I’m taking Chevy for this prop bet.

Bet: Chevrolet (+140)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+160)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+190)
• Team Penske (+400)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+1000)
• 23XI Racing (+1200)
• RFK Racing (+1600)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2200)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2500)
• Front Row Motorsports (+6000)

Hendrick Motorsports (+160) is the favorite because of drivers like Larson, Byron and Elliott. But let’s not forget that Alex Bowman is also on this team. And, like his three teammates, Bowman has also won at this venue. In fact, he won the 2021 Xfinity 500 race.

As much as I think there’s a decent hedge opportunity with Joe Gibbs Racing, you can’t ignore that all four of Hendrick’s drivers have won at Martinsville and three of them are competing to advance to the Championship Race.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+160)