Oklahoma City Thunder vs Orlando Magic Picks and Predictions November 4th 2024

Thunder vs Magic November 4th 2024

At 9:15 ET, the Orlando Magic (3-4) will travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (6-0) in a non-conference matchup. The Thunder are favored by 12 points and the over/under line is set at 215.5.

This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. FDSO will have the TV coverage.

Magic vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Monday, November 4th
• Betting Odds OKC -12, ORL +528 | OKC -741 O/U 215.5

The Magic Can Win If…

Orlando’s season record dropped to 3-4 after a 108-85 loss to the Mavericks on Sunday. The Magic, who were +6.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread, losing by 23 points. The game’s total of 193 points fell well short of the 220-point line.

A 13-0 run by Dallas in the 2nd quarter put Orlando in a deep hole, as they were outscored 35-18 in the period. While the Magic managed to win the 4th quarter 24-20, they entered the final frame trailing 88-61.

In their 108-85 loss to the Mavericks, the Magic’s offense struggled, shooting just 33.3% from the field and 19.5% from three-point range, making only 8 threes. Franz Wagner led the team with 13 points, 6 assists, and 6 rebounds, shooting 40% from the field.

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Jett Howard added 12 points, hitting 2 threes at 25% efficiency. Jalen Suggs contributed 10 points, shooting 30.8%. Wagner scored 4 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, adding 5 more in the 3rd.

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 3rd and 4th quarters, the Magic couldn’t overcome a rough start, allowing 65 points in the 1st half against the Mavericks. Overall, they gave up 108 points on 49% shooting.

Orlando did well defending the three, holding Dallas to 31% shooting with just 10 made threes. The Magic also sent the Mavericks to the line 23 times, where they hit 14 free throws. Defensively, the Magic recorded 8 steals and 4 blocks.

• In their last three games away from home, the Magic have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 97 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Magic have an ATS mark of just 0-3 in their last three games. Orlando posted a straight up mark of 0-3 in these matchups.
• Over their last three games, the Magic have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

The Thunder improved to 6-0 on the season with a 105-92 road win over the Clippers on Saturday. Oklahoma City, favored by 5.5 points, covered the spread, while the game’s total of 197 points fell well short of the 220.5 O/U line.

After trailing 28-19 after the 1st quarter, the Thunder went on a 15-0 run, extending their lead from 47-38 to 62-38. They closed out the game strong, holding the Clippers to just 14 points in the 4th quarter while scoring 24 of their own.

The Magic struggled offensively in their 108-85 loss to the Mavericks, shooting just 33.3% from the field and 19.5% from three-point range, making only 8 threes. Franz Wagner led the team with 13 points, 6 assists, and 6 rebounds, hitting 40% of his shots.

Jett Howard added 12 points, connecting on 2 threes at 25% efficiency, while Jalen Suggs contributed 10 points, shooting 30.8%. Wagner scored 5 points in the 3rd quarter, while Howard added 4 points in the 4th.

The Thunder’s defense tightened up in the 2nd half, allowing just 35 points to the Clippers, including a stifling 4th quarter where they gave up only 14 points. Overall, they held the Clippers to 92 points on 40% shooting.

Oklahoma City also limited LA’s damage from beyond the arc, with the Clippers hitting 11 threes at a 31% clip. The Thunder sent the Clippers to the line 26 times, where they made 17 free throws. Defensively, the Thunder recorded 11 steals and 3 blocks.

• Oklahoma City has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 118 points per game while allowing 100. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
• As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 4-1 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.
• In their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Thunder winning this one by a score of 121-96, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Thunder at -12.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 215.5, and our model projects the Magic and Thunder to reach a combined total of 217 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder Look to Fluster Magic

The Oklahoma City Thunder have started the season with a commanding 6-0 record, marking the franchise’s best start since relocating from Seattle in 2008. As the Thunder prepare to host the Orlando Magic on Monday night, star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is focused on maintaining perspective despite the impressive start.

“There’s still 76 games left,” Gilgeous-Alexander remarked. “We’re not even close to what we need to be to accomplish what we want to accomplish, which is obviously winning big. So yeah, it’s cool. We’re not satisfied at all.”

Thunder’s Defensive Dominance

While the Thunder’s offense ranks mid-league with 112.5 points per 100 possessions, their defense has been exceptional. Oklahoma City currently leads the NBA in defensive rating, holding opponents to an impressive 95.1 points per 100 possessions — well below any other team in the league, with the closest rival allowing more than 101 points.

Gilgeous-Alexander, a significant factor in both Oklahoma City’s offense and defense, is averaging 26.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game this season. Notably, he’s been more aggressive from beyond the arc, averaging 7.2 three-point attempts per game — double his attempts from last season. His scoring and defensive versatility are pivotal, helping Oklahoma City win each of their games by an average margin of 17.7 points, with their closest contest decided by 12 points.

Magic Struggle in Banchero’s Absence

Orlando is navigating a rough patch without their 2022 first-overall draft pick, Paolo Banchero, who suffered a torn right oblique in last Wednesday’s game against the Chicago Bulls. Banchero is expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks, forcing the Magic to shuffle their rotation and elevate second-year forward Jett Howard. Howard, who saw a career-high 22 minutes in Sunday’s 108-85 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, is working to fill Banchero’s offensive void.

“Jett played with a high level of energy,” Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley said. “He got his shot whenever he needed to… but we gotta sit down and guard and play defense the right way.”

Orlando will be looking to snap their three-game losing streak on Monday. The game is their fourth on a five-game road trip, and it’s also the second game of a back-to-back set. The Magic have already dropped their previous back-to-back outing this season, and missing Banchero has exposed weaknesses on both ends of the floor.

In addition to Banchero’s absence, the Magic’s frontcourt is hampered by injuries to Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze. Carter, who briefly returned from right knee tendinitis against Dallas, suffered a plantar fascia strain in his left foot during Sunday’s game and may be out for an extended period. Bitadze has also missed the last four games due to a left foot tendon strain, leaving the Magic in a difficult position to contend with Oklahoma City’s size and physicality.

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Key Matchups and Game Outlook

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Orlando’s Perimeter Defense
   With Gilgeous-Alexander taking more perimeter shots, the Magic will need to find ways to disrupt him beyond the arc while maintaining defensive pressure inside. Howard and Franz Wagner will likely draw the primary assignments, but both face a tough task against Oklahoma’s versatile scorer.
2. Thunder Defense vs. Jett Howard’s Emerging Role
   Howard’s offensive workload has increased without Banchero, but facing the league’s top defense will be a new test. Oklahoma City will aim to shut down Howard early and force the Magic into uncomfortable positions.
3. Thunder’s Home-Court Momentum
   This matchup kicks off a period where Oklahoma City will play seven of their next eight games at home. With a favorable schedule ahead and a perfect record, the Thunder are poised to build even more momentum.

Game Implications

As Oklahoma City seeks to extend their record-breaking start, they have the defensive prowess and offensive momentum to outpace an injury-plagued Magic squad. For Orlando, finding consistency and protecting the ball will be crucial to stay competitive without key players.

With a solid home-court advantage and Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge, the Thunder appear well-positioned to keep their streak alive. For the Magic, managing turnovers and increasing defensive discipline will be essential in challenging Oklahoma City’s confident, well-rounded roster.