Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings Picks and Predictions November 10th 2024

Jaguars vs Vikings November 10th 2024

FOX will broadcast the week 10 non-conference matchup between the Vikings and Jaguars, which is set to kick off at 1:00 ET. The Jaguars are the home team, and the game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Vikings are favored on the road with a point spread of -4 and have a money line of -198. The over/under line is at 47.5 points.

Minnesota vs. Jacksonville Key Information

• Teams: Vikings at Jaguars
• Where: EverBank Stadium Jacksonville
• Date: Sunday, November 10th
• Betting Odds MIN -198 | JAX +165 O/U 47.5

The Vikings Can Win If…

After back-to-back losses, the Vikings bounced back in week 9 with a 21-13 win over the Colts, improving their record to 6-2. Minnesota was favored by 5.5 points and covered the spread, but the 34 combined points fell short of the 47-point line. The Vikings are 6-2 against the spread this season, including a 3-0 record as underdogs.

Heading into week 10, Minnesota ranks 8th in our power rankings and has an 81.3% chance of making the playoffs. They sit 2nd in the NFC North with a 1-1 division record. The Vikings have a +7.4 scoring margin and an O/U record of 3-5, with their games averaging 44.9 points.

Heading into week 10, the Vikings rank 13th in our offensive power rankings and 8th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 26.1. They are 13th in the league in yards per game (336.2) and 12th in passing yards, with 222.1 per game on 28.1 attempts. Minnesota ranks 21st in rushing yards per game and 17th in attempts.

Sam Darnold threw for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 9, going 28/34, but he also had 2 interceptions. Justin Jefferson had 7 catches for 137 yards, and Aaron Jones rushed for 64 yards on 21 carries. The Vikings scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter and converted 6 of 12 third downs in their win over the Colts.

In their 21-13 win over the Colts, the Vikings’ defense limited Indianapolis to just 159 passing yards on 16 completions. They also held the Colts to 68 rushing yards on 19 attempts. The Vikings defended the pass well, allowing only 5.9 yards per attempt and not giving up any passing touchdowns. Additionally, they held the Colts to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down.

Minnesota’s defensive front generated three sacks in the game, and they also came away with one interception. Despite losing the tackles for loss battle, the Vikings held the Colts to just 227 total yards in the game. The Vikings’ secondary defended the pass effectively, allowing just a 59.3% completion rate.

• Minnesota has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
• Minnesota has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 5-5 on the over-under.

The Jaguars Can Win If…

Jacksonville heads into week 10 with a 2-7 record, putting them 4th in the AFC South. After snapping their losing streak with a win over the Patriots in week 7, the Jaguars have dropped two straight, including a 28-23 loss to the Eagles in week 9. Despite the loss, they covered the spread as 7.5-point underdogs. Jacksonville is 5-4 against the spread this season and has covered in three straight games.

Our projections give the Jaguars a 3.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.0% chance of winning the division. They rank 26th in our NFL power rankings. Their O/U record is 6-3, with the over hitting in five consecutive games.

Jacksonville’s offense ranks 19th in our power rankings heading into week 10. They are 17th in the NFL in points per game (21.7) and passing yards per game (207.2), while ranking 21st in total yards per game (320.7). They have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 31.6% of their attempts (27th in the NFL), and are 24th in red zone conversion percentage despite ranking 6th in red zone attempts.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a rough outing in week 9, posting a passer rating of 40 with 169 yards and 2 interceptions against the Eagles. Jacksonville scored 23 points in that game, with 16 coming in the 3rd quarter. Evan Engram led the team with 5 catches for 45 yards.

In their 28-23 loss to the Eagles, the Jaguars’ defense gave up 237 rushing yards on 46 attempts, allowing Philadelphia to control the game on the ground. Despite this, they did manage to sack the quarterback three times. The Eagles also had success through the air, with 210 passing yards and a collective 447 yards of total offense.

Jacksonville’s defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Eagles to convert on 52.9% of their attempts. Philadelphia also completed 75% of their passes and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt.

• Through their last three games, the Jaguars have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 3-0.
• The Jaguars have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, Jacksonville went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Vikings to cover as 4-point favorites in this week 10 matchup between the Jaguars and Vikings. We have the Vikings winning 27-19, and with the Jaguars being the home team in this one, we like the Vikings to cover as road favorites.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 47.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections coming in at 46 combined points.

Best NFL Expert Handicappers

As the Minnesota Vikings prepare to visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon, quarterback Sam Darnold is focused on one crucial area for improvement: reducing turnovers. For Darnold, who has been instrumental in the Vikings’ 6-2 season start, the focus isn’t just on passing yards, touchdowns, or even wins. Instead, he is determined to make “smarter” decisions on the field to maintain Minnesota’s strong momentum.

Darnold’s Strategy: Minimize Turnovers, Maximize Control

Darnold’s main takeaway from last week’s game, where he threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, is clear: better decision-making will be critical for the Vikings’ success. “At the end of the day, I need to make smarter decisions,” he said, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control by improving his use of footwork, eye movement, and progression reads.

This introspective approach could prove crucial against a Jaguars team with a struggling defense, where limiting turnovers will allow the Vikings to control the pace of the game and avoid giving Jacksonville any additional scoring opportunities.

Vikings Riding High with Strong Season Start

The Vikings are entering this game with a 6-2 record, coming off a 21-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Their season has been marked by a dominant point differential (+59), showing strength on both sides of the ball. While the Vikings have excelled in both offensive and defensive play, there’s still room for growth, particularly in securing cleaner, turnover-free performances from their quarterback.

Comparison to Jaguars’ Season Struggles

In contrast, the Jaguars (2-7) are struggling to find footing in a tough AFC South division. They’ve lost two straight games against top teams, the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles, and carry a significant point deficit (-57) heading into Week 10. As they look to snap a two-game losing streak, Jacksonville’s primary challenge will be overcoming these difficulties while managing key injuries that add to their unpredictability.

Trevor Lawrence Injury Raises Questions for Jacksonville

The Jaguars face a major question mark with quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s status after he injured his non-throwing shoulder last week. Lawrence was limited in practice on Wednesday, prompting Jacksonville to bring back veteran quarterback C.J. Beathard as a backup plan. Although Beathard has familiarity with the Jaguars’ system, if Lawrence is unable to play, it’s likely that backup Mac Jones will start, adding further uncertainty to Jacksonville’s offensive outlook.

Coach Doug Pederson acknowledged the benefits of having an experienced quarterback room. “C.J. got hurt in camp, and we had to let him go, but we definitely wanted to get him back here,” Pederson said. “Trevor’s sore, and it gives us assurance.”

If Lawrence does play, the Jaguars will rely on his leadership to anchor a struggling offense. Lawrence is determined to be on the field, stating, “I’m doing everything I can to be out there.” His determination to play underscores Jacksonville’s commitment to avoiding further decline in a challenging season.

Vikings’ Special Teams Adjustments

Injuries are also affecting the Vikings, particularly on special teams. They signed kicker John Parker Romo to replace rookie kicker Will Reichard, who is out with a strained right quadriceps. Additionally, Minnesota’s long snapper Andrew DePaola will miss the game due to a hand injury, and veteran Jake McQuaide will step into the role.

While these changes may seem minor, they could impact Minnesota’s field goal performance and special teams’ reliability. Field position and consistent kicking could play an even greater role in a matchup where each score matters, especially if the game is close.

Head-to-Head: Historical Advantage for Minnesota

The Vikings hold a 6-1 lead in the all-time series against the Jaguars, including a 27-24 overtime victory in their last matchup on December 6, 2020. Minnesota’s consistent record in this rivalry highlights their historical dominance, giving them added confidence heading into Sunday.

Jaguars’ Home Performance and Potential Upset

Despite Jacksonville’s struggles this season, they hold a 2-2 record at home, showing they can put up a fight on their own turf. Minnesota, however, boasts a solid 2-1 road record, proving their capability to perform away from home. Although the Vikings appear to have the upper hand, Jacksonville could turn the tables if Lawrence is able to play effectively and the Jaguars’ defense steps up.

Game Outlook and Key Strategies

For the Vikings, the priority will be for Darnold to avoid turnovers and maintain control of the game tempo. If he can limit mistakes, Minnesota’s offense should be able to capitalize on Jacksonville’s defensive weaknesses, particularly if the Jaguars are adjusting to Lawrence’s absence or limited performance.

For the Jaguars, Lawrence’s availability will be crucial. Should he play, Jacksonville will need a strong, efficient offense, as well as a tighter defense to slow down Minnesota’s potent attack. With Pederson and the Jaguars’ roster working through the challenges of quarterback uncertainty, they’ll be looking for other contributors to step up in what could be a high-stakes game.

Prediction: Vikings Favored, but Upset Potential Exists

The Vikings hold a clear advantage due to their consistent season performance, offensive power, and strong historical record against Jacksonville. However, the Jaguars’ potential for a home-field advantage and the possibility of Lawrence suiting up could narrow the gap. While Minnesota is favored, an upset is possible if Jacksonville’s offense can find rhythm and their defense limits Minnesota’s scoring opportunities.

Conclusion As Sunday’s game approaches, all eyes will be on Darnold’s execution and Lawrence’s health. If Darnold sticks to his game plan of “playing smarter,” and if the Vikings’ adjustments on special teams hold steady, Minnesota could continue their strong season with another win. For the Jaguars, it’s a chance to turn things around, making this a pivotal moment in Jacksonville’s season.