Toledo Rockets vs Central Michigan Chippewas Picks and Predictions November 12th 2024

The Toledo Rockets are the heavy favorite in this matchup as they host the Central Michigan Chippewas at the Glass Bowl in Toledo. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET, and you can catch the action on ESNU. Toledo comes in with a 6-3 record, while Central Michigan is 3-6 on the season. The over/under line is currently set at 50 points.

Central Michigan vs. Toledo Key Information

• Teams: Chippewas at Rockets
• Where: Glass Bowl Toledo
• Date: Tuesday, November 12th
• Betting Odds TOLEDO -657 | CMICH +447 O/U 50

The Chippewas Can Win If…

Central Michigan enters Week 12 against Toledo with a 3-6 record, ranked 122nd in our power rankings. Their chances of becoming bowl-eligible stand at just 1.4%. The Chippewas are 2-2 at home but have struggled on the road, going 0-4 this season.

They’ve been favored in three games, going 2-1, but have an average scoring margin of -5.8 points per game. Against the spread, Central Michigan is 3-5, with a 0-3 record as the favorite and 3-2 as the underdog.

The Chippewas’ over/under record is 5-3, with their games averaging 56.7 points. Their average over/under line is 49.9 points, and this week’s line is set at 50 points.

Central Michigan’s offense has been centered around their rushing attack, averaging 184.7 yards per game, ranking 47th in the nation. They are 42nd in rushing attempts, with 36.7 per game. Marion Lukes leads the team with 537 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and an average of 4 yards per carry. Heading into week 12, Central Michigan is 61st in scoring, with 25.4 points per game, and they are ranked 109th in our offensive power rankings.

Joe Labas has thrown for 1,114 yards this season, with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 76. Central Michigan is 114th in passing yards per game, averaging 175.4 yards. Their third-down conversion rate is 34.2%, ranking 110th nationally. Chris Parker leads the receiving corps with 308 yards and three touchdowns.

Central Michigan’s defense allowed 23 points in their recent 23-13 loss to Bowling Green, giving up 389 total yards. The Chippewas surrendered 182 rushing yards on 34 attempts and 207 passing yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown allowed.

On the season, Central Michigan’s defense ranks 77th nationally, allowing 31.2 points per game. Opponents have averaged 186.2 rushing yards per game and 209.2 passing yards, completing 59.9% of their throws.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Central Michigan has a record of 0-3. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Central Michigan Chippewas have gone 3-7 straight up. Against the spread, Central Michigan went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Rockets Can Win If…

Toledo enters Week 12 with a 6-3 record, holding an 87th-place spot in our CFB power rankings. They are 100% bowl-eligible but have just an 18.8% chance of winning the Mid-American. At home, the Rockets are 2-1, while they’ve gone 3-2 on the road this season.

Toledo is 3-5 against the spread, with a +6.8 average scoring margin. As the favorite, they are 1-5 ATS, but they’ve covered both games as the underdog (2-0).

The over/under line for this week is 50 points. Toledo’s games have averaged 51.4 points, and their over/under record stands at 6-2, with an average line of 50.4 points.

Toledo’s offense is averaging 29.1 points per game, placing them 45th in the nation as they head into week 12. Our rankings have them 92nd in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 36th in attempts, 35th in completions, and 39th in yards, with an average of 261.3 yards per game. They are converting 36.5% of their third-down attempts.

Quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown for 1,896 yards and has a passer rating of 96. He has 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Leading receiver Jerjuan Newton has 49 catches for 783 yards and 10 touchdowns. On the ground, Connor Walendzak has rushed for 363 yards and one touchdown.

Toledo’s defense, ranked 37th in the nation, has allowed an average of 22.3 points per game this season. In their recent 29-28 win over Eastern Michigan, they gave up 28 points and 435 total yards, including 265 passing yards and two touchdowns, while also forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged 229.6 passing yards per game against Toledo, completing 59.2% of their passes. The Rockets have faced the 102nd most passing attempts in the country. On the ground, they’ve allowed 138.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 64th nationally.

• The Toledo Rockets have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 3-0.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Toledo Rockets have gone 8-2 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 7-3.

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The Lean

Our predicted final score for this matchup is 28-27 in favor of Toledo, making Central Michigan the best bet as +14.5 point underdogs. We expect them to cover the spread while Toledo pulls out the straight-up win.

With the over/under line set at 50 points, our projections suggest a combined 55 points, so we recommend taking the over in this game.