Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos Picks and Predictions November 12th 2024

Bowling Green Falcons vs Western Michigan Broncos November 12th 2024

ESPN2 will be covering the 7:00 ET kickoff as the Bowling Green Falcons host the Western Michigan Broncos in a week 12 matchup. The game is being played at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons are looking to take care of business as -8.5 point favorites. Both teams come in with identical 5-4 records for the season. The over/under line is currently set at 58 points.

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Key Information

Western Michigan enters Week 12 against Bowling Green with a 5-4 record, ranking 108th in our power rankings. They have an 86.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Broncos are 2-1 at home and 2-3 on the road this season.

They’ve been favored in three games, going 3-0 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is -1.3 points per game, and they are 4-4 against the spread.

The over/under line for this week is set at 58 points. Western Michigan’s games have averaged 68 points, with an average over/under line of 54.2 points. Their over/under record is 6-2 this season.

Western Michigan’s offense has been driven by their run game, averaging 212.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 21st nationally. They are 29th in scoring, with 33.3 points per game, and we have them 40th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. Jaden Nixon leads the ground attack with 847 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and an impressive 7 yards per carry.

Quarterback Hayden Wolff has thrown for 1,765 yards, with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 107. The Broncos rank 25th in passer rating and 21st in completion percentage, completing 65.5% of their passes. Wolff’s top target, Anthony Sambucci, has 353 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.

Western Michigan’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 34.7 points per game. In their recent game against Northern Illinois, they gave up 42 points, including 258 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The defense also allowed 156 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Opponents have averaged 183.4 rushing yards per game against Western Michigan, while quarterbacks have posted a 105.6 passer rating, completing 65.1% of their throws for an average of 246.2 passing yards per game.

With a 5-4 record, Bowling Green is aiming for bowl eligibility in Week 12 against Western Michigan. They’ve gone 3-2 on the road and 1-2 at home this season. Our projections give them a 96.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, and they hold a 26.2% shot at winning the Mid-American Conference.

Bowling Green’s ATS record stands at 3-5, with a 3-2 mark on the road and 0-3 at home. They’ve gone 0-5 against the spread as favorites but are 3-0 ATS as underdogs. Their average scoring margin is +5.7 points per game.

The over/under line for this week is set at 58 points. Bowling Green’s average over/under line this season is 49.9 points, and their games have averaged 47.7 points, with a 3-5 record against the over/under.

Bowling Green’s offense is averaging 26.7 points per game heading into week 12, ranking 64th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Connor Bazelak has thrown for 2,022 yards with a passer rating of 98, completing 68.2% of his passes. The Falcons are 54th in passing attempts, averaging 227.8 yards per game, and they are 41st in completions.

Bazelak has 11 touchdown passes and four interceptions this season. Leading the rushing attack is Terion Stewart, who has 679 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and scoring five touchdowns. Malcolm Johnson Jr. leads the receivers with 375 yards and two touchdowns.

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Bowling Green’s defense has been solid this season, allowing just 21 points per game, ranking 27th nationally. In their recent game against Central Michigan, they gave up only 13 points and 250 total yards, including 63 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 168.3 passing yards per game against Bowling Green, the 19th-lowest in the country, completing 55.1% of their passes. However, the Falcons have struggled against the run, allowing 172.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 121st nationally.

Our projections have this game going over the current over/under line of 58 points, with a final score of 31-30 in favor of Western Michigan. We like Western Michigan to pull off the road upset as +8.5 point underdogs.

For a point spread pick, we would take Western Michigan to cover and win straight-up. So, we like the Broncos as the road underdog and would lean towards the over based on our projections.