Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

The Jaguars and Lions will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions are heavily favored, with money line odds of -794, and the point spread is -13 in favor of the Lions. The game is being televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 47.5 points.

Jacksonville vs. Detroit Key Information

• Teams: Jaguars at Lions
• Where: Ford Field Detroit
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds DET -794 | JAX +522 O/U 47.5

The Jaguars Can Win If…

Jacksonville heads into week 11 on a three-game losing streak, including a 12-7 home loss to the Vikings in week 10. The Jaguars were +7 in that game, so they covered the spread despite the loss. They also covered in weeks 8 and 9, putting their ATS record at 6-4 this season. As underdogs, Jacksonville is 5-1 against the spread.

With a 2-8 record, the Jaguars rank 29th in our power rankings and have just a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are 0-5 on the road this season and 2-3 at home. In division games, Jacksonville is 1-1, and they are 2-4 in conference play.

Jacksonville’s offense has struggled to find consistency, ranking 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in yards per game (302.9) and 18th in points per game (20.2). On 3rd down, they rank 27th, converting just 33% of their attempts. They are 21st in passing yards per game (195.2) and 25th in rushing yards per game (107.7).

In week 10, Jacksonville scored just 7 points, all in the 1st quarter, in a loss to the Vikings. Mac Jones threw for 111 yards (14/22) with 2 interceptions. Evan Engram led the team with 40 receiving yards, and Travis Etienne Jr. had 44 rushing yards on 11 carries.

In their 12-7 loss to the Vikings, the Jaguars’ defense did come up with three interceptions, but they struggled to stop the run, giving up 169 yards on 43 attempts. Despite this, they held Minnesota to just 12 points. The Jaguars’ defense also forced the Vikings to convert on just 35.7% of their third down attempts. They did allow 233 passing yards and had just one sack in the game.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Jacksonville has a record of 0-3. They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 3-0 as well as an over-under record of 2-1.
• Across Jacksonville’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 2-8. Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-4, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Lions Can Win If…

With seven straight wins, the Lions sit atop our NFL power rankings and have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs. Detroit is 8-1 this season and leads the NFC North with a 2-0 division record. They are 5-0 on the road and 3-1 at home.

Against the spread, the Lions are 7-2, including 6-2 as favorites. Their average scoring margin is +12.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-4-1, with their games averaging 50.6 points (O/U line: 50).

Heading into week 11, the Lions are 4th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 31.6 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. They are 7th in passing yards per game (219.6), despite being 27th in passing attempts. Detroit ranks 5th in rushing attempts and 7th in rushing yards per game, averaging 147.3 yards on the ground. They are 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and 4th in red zone attempts, but their 13.9% red zone conversion rate ranks 27th.

Jared Goff threw for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 10, but he also had 5 interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 59. Jahmyr Gibbs led the team with 71 rushing yards on 19 carries, while Sam LaPorta had 3 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Detroit scored 13 points in the 4th quarter against the Texans, converting 7 of 12 3rd-down attempts and going 2/3 in the red zone.

The Lions’ defense played well in their most recent game, coming up with four sacks and forcing two interceptions in their 26-23 win over the Texans. Detroit’s defense limited Houston to just 56 yards on 28 rushing attempts, averaging only 2.0 yards per attempt. In the passing game, the Lions gave up 192 yards through the air, with one touchdown allowed, and held the Texans to a 57.6% completion percentage.

They also held Houston to a 40% conversion rate on third downs. Detroit’s defense was disruptive up front, winning the tackles for loss battle and coming away with more quarterback hits than the Texans.

• The Lions have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Lions have gone 8-2 straight up. Their record vs the spread sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 7-3 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our model has the Lions winning this week 11 matchup against the Jaguars by a score of 32-15. With the point spread sitting at 13 points in favor of the Jaguars, we are taking the Lions to cover as home favorites.

For this game, we have a point spread pick and a pick vs. the spread. As for the over/under, we are leaning towards the under, with a projected combined score of 47 points and the line sitting at 47.5 points.

Lions Going After Club-Record Win Streak Against Jacksonville

The Detroit Lions (8-1) aim to secure their eighth consecutive win, a feat that would set a franchise record during the Super Bowl era, as they host the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) on Sunday at Ford Field.

Coming off a dramatic 26-23 victory over the Houston Texans, Detroit overcame five interceptions by quarterback Jared Goff to rally from a 16-point halftime deficit. Kicker Jake Bates sealed the game with two clutch field goals in the fourth quarter, including the game-winner.

Lions Focused Amid Record-Setting Opportunities

Detroit sits atop the NFC standings and enters this matchup with momentum, but head coach Dan Campbell remains cautious, emphasizing the need for focus and discipline as opponents give the Lions their best effort.

“We’re going to get everybody’s best shot,” Campbell said. “It really is about yourself and the details to what we do.”

Despite last week’s victory, Goff will need to clean up his game after throwing five interceptions against Houston. The Lions had previously gone five games without a turnover, a key to their consistent success.

“I’ve got to improve, and we’ve got to improve if we want to keep this momentum going,” Goff said.

The Lions’ defense will be bolstered by the debut of Za’Darius Smith, acquired at the trade deadline to strengthen the pass rush. Campbell believes Smith will make an immediate impact.

“He’s a complementary piece who can elevate our defense,” Campbell said.

Jaguars Struggling Without Trevor Lawrence

The Jaguars face another uphill battle as starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence is sidelined for a second straight week with a shoulder injury. Backup Mac Jones will get the nod after a lackluster performance in last week’s 12-7 loss to Minnesota, where he threw for just 111 yards and two interceptions.

Jones struggled to involve the team’s top wide receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, who combined for only three catches. He knows he’ll need to step up against Detroit’s opportunistic defense, tied for second in the NFL with 13 interceptions.

“They’re sound all around,” Jones said of Detroit’s defense. “It’s a physical group, and playing at Ford Field will be a challenge with that fan base.”

In addition to Lawrence, the Jaguars may also be without Tank Bigsby, who injured his ankle against Minnesota. This could put more pressure on running back Travis Etienne Jr., who was limited to just 44 rushing yards last week.

Key Matchups

Jared Goff vs. Jaguars Secondary
Goff will look to rebound against Jacksonville’s pass defense, which has been inconsistent but could capitalize on any turnovers.

Mac Jones vs. Lions Pass Rush
With Za’Darius Smith making his debut, Detroit’s defense will aim to pressure Jones and force him into mistakes.

Travis Etienne Jr. vs. Lions Run Defense
Etienne will need to carry the load for Jacksonville if Bigsby is sidelined. Detroit’s defense, however, has been strong against the run.

Za’Darius Smith’s Impact
All eyes will be on Smith as he takes the field for the first time in a Lions uniform, aiming to make an immediate impact on the pass rush.

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Outlook

The Lions have been dominant at Ford Field, and with Jacksonville’s offense struggling to find its footing, Detroit is heavily favored to extend their winning streak. For the Jaguars, a strong defensive effort and a breakout performance from Mac Jones will be necessary to pull off an upset.

Prediction: Lions 30, Jaguars 13