Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions November 17th 2024

The Falcons and Broncos will face off on Sunday, November 17th at 4:05 ET on FOX. The Broncos are the favorite with a money line of -134 and are -2.5 point favorites on the road. The over/under line is set at 44 points for this non-conference matchup. The Falcons’ record and the Broncos’ record need to be added.

Atlanta vs. Denver Key Information

• Teams: Falcons at Broncos
• Where: Empower Field at Mile High Denver
• Date: Sunday, November 17th
• Betting Odds DEN -134 | ATL +112 O/U 44

The Falcons Can Win If…

Heading into week 11, the Falcons sit atop the NFC South with a 6-4 record, including a 4-1 mark in division play. Our projections give Atlanta an 85.5% chance of winning the division and an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs. They rank 14th in our NFL power rankings. Against the spread, the Falcons are 5-5 this season, with a +0.2 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 4-6, with the under hitting in their last two games.

After two straight wins, the Falcons couldn’t get past the Saints in week 10, losing 20-17. They entered the game as 3.5-point favorites but couldn’t cover the spread. The teams combined for 37 points, falling short of the 47-point line. Atlanta’s record now stands at 6-4.

Heading into week 11, the Falcons rank 11th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 23.8 points per game, which is 11th in the NFL. They are 5th in passing yards per game (250.4) on 33.5 attempts per game and 12th in rushing yards per game (124.7) on 26.9 attempts. Atlanta ranks 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.1% success rate, and they are also 17th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 9th in red zone attempts.

In week 10, Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards on 23/38 passing, with one interception and no touchdowns. Bijan Robinson rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, while Drake London led the team with 8 receptions for 97 yards. The Falcons scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter against the Saints but were shut out in the 4th quarter.

Despite a strong overall effort, the Falcons’ defense couldn’t come up with any sacks in their 20-17 loss to the Saints. They gave up 269 yards passing on just 16 completions and allowed two passing touchdowns. Atlanta’s defense held the Saints to 3.6 yards per attempt on 27 rushing attempts.

Opposing quarterbacks completed 64% of their passes against Atlanta in the most recent game. The Falcons’ defense also allowed the Saints to convert on 38.5% of their third down attempts. Atlanta’s defense struggled in generating pressure, losing the QB hit differential by -8 and the tackles for loss differential by -4.

• Over their last three games, the Falcons have gone 2-1 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• The Falcons have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Broncos Can Win If…

Denver heads into week 11 looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in week 10. This dropped the Broncos to 5-5, putting them 3rd in the AFC West. They currently have a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs and rank 25th in our NFL power rankings.

Despite their even record, the Broncos are +2 in scoring margin and are 7-3 ATS this season. They are 3-0 as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record stands at 6-4, with their games averaging 37.4 points compared to an average line of 39.8.

Heading into week 11, the Broncos’ offense ranks 27th in our power rankings, averaging 19.7 points per game (19th) and 303.7 yards per game (24th). They are 12th in passing attempts but 27th in passing yards, with 186.6 per game. Denver ranks 16th in rushing attempts and 20th in rushing yards, averaging 117.1 per game. They are 22nd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 35.6% success rate, and they rank 18th in red zone conversion percentage.

Bo Nix threw for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22/30 passing in week 10, posting a passer rating of 115. Courtland Sutton led the team with 6 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Denver scored all 14 of their points in the 2nd quarter against the Chiefs, failing to score in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters.

In their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs, the Broncos’ defense allowed 243 passing yards on 28 completions. Despite this, they did manage to sack the quarterback four times and held Kansas City to just 57 rushing yards on 19 attempts. The Broncos defended the run well, allowing only 3.0 yards per attempt.

Denver’s defense also limited the Chiefs to a 43.8% third-down conversion rate and forced them into several long-yardage situations. However, they did allow one passing touchdown and finished with a tough loss.

• Through their last three games, the Broncos have a record of 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Denver has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Denver went 6-4 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

For this week 11 matchup between the Broncos and Falcons, we have the Broncos coming out on top by a score of 22-20. Despite the Falcons being the favorite at +2.5, we like the Broncos to pull off the upset. This makes our pick vs. the spread to take the Broncos to cover at home.

As for the best way to bet the point spread, we like taking the Falcons to cover as road underdogs. With the line sitting at 44 points, we are leaning towards the under, with our projections coming in at 42 combined points.

Broncos, Falcons Share Same Goal: End Postseason Drought

Two franchises desperately seeking to break lengthy playoff absences collide Sunday when the Denver Broncos (5-5) host the Atlanta Falcons (6-4) in a high-stakes matchup. With both teams firmly in the playoff hunt, a victory could mark a crucial step toward ending years of postseason futility.

• Denver’s Last Playoff Appearance: Super Bowl 50 victory in 2015.
• Atlanta’s Last Playoff Appearance: 2017 NFC Divisional Round.

Atlanta Falcons: Clinging to the NFC South Lead

Despite sitting atop the NFC South, the Falcons are under pressure following a disappointing 20-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. Missed opportunities—particularly three missed field goals by usually reliable kicker Younghoe Koo—cost Atlanta the chance to solidify its division lead.

Key Offensive Contributors:

Bijan Robinson: The rookie sensation has 748 rushing yards, providing a consistent spark on the ground.

Kirk Cousins: Atlanta’s quarterback ranks third in the NFL with 2,634 passing yards, spreading the ball effectively to his top targets.

Drake London and Darnell Mooney: London leads the team in touchdowns, while Mooney has been a reliable deep threat.

The Falcons’ offense must rise to the occasion against Denver’s elite defense. Atlanta is 0-4 in games where it has failed to score 20 points, a concerning trend heading into Sunday’s matchup.

Denver Broncos: Resilience Despite Offensive Struggles

The Broncos have leaned heavily on their defense, allowing just 17.7 points per game (fourth in the NFL). However, offensive consistency has been elusive. After a narrow 16-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, rookie quarterback Bo Nix remains optimistic about the team’s potential.

Key Players to Watch:

• Bo Nix: The first-year quarterback has tallied 1,968 passing yards, the second-most among NFL rookies this season.
• Will Lutz: Denver’s kicker looks to bounce back after a blocked 35-yard field goal attempt cost the Broncos a potential upset win over Kansas City.
• Josh Reynolds: The wide receiver, returning from injured reserve, will provide a much-needed boost to Denver’s passing game.

Head coach Sean Payton expressed confidence in his team’s ability to bounce back:

“This team has been resilient. The sky isn’t falling… We’ve got a good week of practice coming up before Atlanta.”

Key Matchups

Bijan Robinson vs. Denver’s Defense

Robinson’s dynamic running ability will test Denver’s front seven. The Broncos must contain him to force Atlanta into predictable passing situations.

Bo Nix vs. Falcons’ Secondary

Nix’s development continues to be a bright spot, but he’ll face challenges against Atlanta’s defensive backs, even with Dee Alford and Antonio Hamilton potentially sidelined.

Kirk Cousins vs. Broncos’ Pass Rush

Denver’s pass rush has been disruptive, and Cousins, dealing with shoulder and elbow injuries, will need time in the pocket to exploit mismatches downfield.

Injury Report

Atlanta Falcons:

Dee Alford (hamstring), Antonio Hamilton (pectoral), and Ta’Quon Graham (pectoral) did not practice Wednesday.

Charlie Woerner (concussion) remains in protocol.

Denver Broncos:

Josh Reynolds (finger) designated to return from IR.

Zach Allen (elbow/rest) and Brandon Jones (abdomen) were limited in practice.

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Game Outlook

Both teams have much to gain and little margin for error. The Falcons aim to bolster their NFC South lead, while the Broncos must capitalize on home-field advantage to stay in the AFC wild-card race.

Prediction: Denver’s defense gives them a slight edge, but Atlanta’s offensive versatility could make for a tightly contested matchup. Expect a hard-fought game as both teams fight to keep their playoff aspirations alive.