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Mavericks vs Spurs November 16th 2024
At 8:30 ET, the Dallas Mavericks (-512) will host the San Antonio Spurs (+388) in a Western Southwest division matchup. The Mavericks are favored by 10.5 points and the over/under line is set at 228.
San Antonio is 6-7 and 11th in the Western Conference, while Dallas is 5-7 and 12th in the West. The Mavericks have lost four straight games.
Spurs vs. Mavericks Key Information
- Sport: NBA
- Teams: San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
- Where: Dallas at American Airlines Center
- Date: Saturday, November 16th
- Betting Odds DAL -10.5, SA +388 | DAL -512 O/U 228
The Spurs Can Win If…
The Spurs fell to 6-7 on the season after a 120-115 home loss to the Lakers on Friday. San Antonio entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 235 points exceeded the O/U line of 228 by 7 points.
San Antonio started strong with an 11-0 run but couldn’t maintain their momentum. The Lakers took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Spurs 37-30. San Antonio edged the Lakers 26-25 in the 3rd and made a push in the 4th, cutting the deficit from 93-86 to 120-115 by the end of the game.
Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 28 points and 14 rebounds in their loss to the Lakers, hitting 4 threes despite shooting just 30.8% from deep. Stephon Castle added 22 points, knocking down 3 threes at a 75% rate, while Devin Vassell contributed 15 points and 3 made threes.
The Spurs connected on 17 threes as a team, shooting 37.8% from beyond the arc and 48.9% overall. Wembanyama scored 9 points in the 1st quarter, while Castle added 9 in the 2nd. Keldon Johnson and Chris Paul each scored 6 points in the 4th quarter.
The Spurs struggled defensively in the 2nd quarter, giving up 37 points, and allowed 120 points overall in their loss to the Lakers. San Antonio did tighten up in the 3rd and 4th quarters, allowing 25 and 27 points, respectively.
San Antonio allowed the Lakers to shoot 50% from the field and 45% from three, with 14 threes made. The Lakers also went 18/23 from the free-throw line. The Spurs finished with 29 defensive rebounds, gave up 10 offensive boards, and recorded 6 steals and 5 blocks.
- In their last ten games away from home, the Spurs have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 103 points per game in this stretch.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Spurs have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
- Over their last three games, the Spurs have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.
The Mavericks Can Win If…
The Mavericks fell to 5-7 on the season after a narrow 115-113 loss to the Jazz on Thursday. Dallas, who were -7.5 point favorites, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game came in at 228, just under the O/U line of 230.
Utah took control with an 11-0 run, stretching the score from 73-72 to 83-73. Dallas fought back in the 4th quarter, holding the Jazz to 16 points while scoring 28 of their own, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.
In their 115-113 loss to the Jazz, the Mavericks shot 50.6% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 30.8% of their threes. Luka Dončić led the way with 37 points and 9 assists, connecting on 4 threes despite the shooting woes.
Naji Marshall added 19 points, including 10 in the 4th quarter, while Klay Thompson contributed 17 points, making 5 threes at a 38.5% clip. Quentin Grimes also chipped in 15 points, scoring 8 in the opening quarter.
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Defensively, the Mavericks struggled in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, giving up 34 and 38 points, respectively, but tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 16 points. Despite their efforts, they still allowed the Jazz to shoot 50% from the field.
From beyond the arc, the Mavericks limited the Jazz to 13 made threes on 38% shooting. Dallas also sent Utah to the line 21 times, where they made 16 free throws. The Mavericks recorded 11 steals and 10 blocks in the game.
- Through their last five home games, Dallas has an ATS record of just 1-3-1. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 114 points per game.
- The last ten games that Dallas was favored, they have an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 4-6 straight up.
- In their last three games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 1-2 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.
The Lean
When looking to get a point-spread pick down in this Spurs vs. Mavericks game, our recommendation is to take the Spurs at +10.5. Despite our model showing the Mavericks winning 140-130, we like Spurs as our point-spread pick.
Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 228 and given that our model is projecting 270 points between the teams, we like the over.
