West Virginia Mountaineers vs Central Florida Knights Picks and Predictions November 23rd 2024

West Virginia Mountaineers vs UCF Knights November 23rd 2024

UCF comes into this week 13 matchup against West Virginia as the -3-point favorite on the road. The game is set for 3:30 ET at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown and will be televised by ESNU. The over/under line is currently at 64.5 points. UCF has a 4-6 record this season, while West Virginia is 5-5. The money line odds are -148 for UCF and +125 for West Virginia.

UCF vs. West Virginia Key Information

UCF enters Week 13 with a 4-6 record, facing West Virginia. They are ranked 36th in our power rankings and have a 39.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Knights are 2-3 at home and 1-3 on the road this season.

UCF’s ATS record is 4-5, with a +6.6 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in five games, going 2-3 ATS as the favorite and 2-1 ATS as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 64.5, the highest for UCF this season. Their over/under record is 7-2, with an average line of 56.8 points and an average game total of 59.4 points.

UCF’s offense is ranked 32nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. They are also 27th in points per game, scoring 33 per contest. Their rushing attack is the strength of the offense, as they rank 3rd in the nation with 262.8 rushing yards per game, averaging 43.8 attempts per game.

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RJ Harvey leads the ground game with 1,328 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. KJ Jefferson has thrown for 1,012 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. UCF ranks 91st in passing yards per game.

UCF’s defense has allowed 26.4 points per game this season, including 35 points in their recent 35-31 loss to Arizona State. They gave up 399 total yards, with 275 yards and three touchdowns coming through the air.

Opponents have averaged 239.5 passing yards per game against UCF, completing 66.6% of their passes. On the ground, UCF has allowed just 117.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 38th nationally.

West Virginia enters Week 13 against UCF with a 5-5 record, ranked 54th in our CFB power rankings. They have a 65.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, the Mountaineers are 1-4, while they’ve gone 3-1 on the road this season.

West Virginia’s ATS record stands at 4-5, with a 1-4 mark at home and 3-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in just two games this season, and their average scoring margin is -0.4 points per game.

This week’s over/under line is 64.5, the highest they’ve faced this season. West Virginia’s over/under record is 6-3, with their games averaging 59.6 points and an average line of 56.2 points.

West Virginia’s offense has leaned heavily on their rushing attack, ranking 27th in the nation with 200.1 rushing yards per game. They are 20th in rushing attempts, averaging 39.5 per game. Jahiem White leads the team with 639 rushing yards, five touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are 43rd in scoring, with 29.6 points per game, and we have them ranked 34th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13.

Quarterback Garrett Greene has thrown for 1,589 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions, posting a passer rating of 77. West Virginia is 89th in passing yards per game, averaging 202.3 yards, and their third-down conversion rate stands at 40.2%. Hudson Clement leads the receiving corps with 454 yards and three touchdowns.

West Virginia’s defense struggled in their recent game against Baylor, allowing 49 points in a 49-35 loss. They gave up 516 total yards, including 329 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, while also allowing 187 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.

On the season, West Virginia is allowing 30 points per game. Opponents are averaging 269.6 passing yards per game, completing 64.2% of their passes. The Mountaineers have faced 33.6 rushing attempts per game, giving up an average of 134.4 rushing yards.

West Virginia is the +3 point underdog at home in their week 13 matchup against UCF. We expect them to not only cover the spread but win the game, with a final score of 36-33.

With the over/under line set at 64.5 points, our projections suggest a combined 69 points, making the over the best play for this matchup.

UCF must win at West Virginia to be in bowl picture

With bowl bids looming, Big 12 foes UCF and West Virginia meet to shore up their postseason chances on Saturday in Morgantown, W.Va.

Pressure on UCF with quarterback shuffle

More pressure exists for UCF (4-6, 2-5), which is on its fourth starting quarterback of the season. Coach Gus Malzahn has shuffled from KJ Jefferson, who started the first five games, to EJ Colson, then Jacurri Brown, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions in losses against BYU and Iowa State.

Malzahn has placed the ball in the hands of Dylan Rizk, a Florida native who completed 44 of 59 passes for 523 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in a 35-31 loss at Arizona State and a 56-12 home win over Arizona.

The latter is UCF’s only win in the past seven outings.

RJ Harvey leads UCF’s run game

The Knights’ offense revolves around the run game, starting with RJ Harvey, the leading rusher in the Big 12. He has amassed 1,328 yards, 19 touchdowns and seven 100-yard games.

To achieve bowl eligibility, the Knights roll out of the bye week in a must-win matchup at West Virginia, then also win their home finale against struggling Utah.

“We’re focused on this game, not the next game,” Malzahn said Monday. “(We’re) going to a tough place to play, there’s no doubt about it. They’re a team that’s similar to us that got after us pretty good last year.”

The Mountaineers (5-5, 4-3) beat UCF 41-28 in Orlando last season.

Garrett Greene leads Mountaineers’ charge

In that win, quarterback Garrett Greene rushed for three scores and completed 14 of 23 pass attempts for 156 yards.

This season, the senior from Florida has passed for 1,589 yards with 11 TDs and nine interceptions and rushed for 600 yards and five scores.

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West Virginia enters the matchup on a down note, losing 49-35 at home to Baylor last Saturday.

Familiar coaching connections

Due to proximity, Mountaineers coach Neal Brown knows Malzahn well from their days coaching in Alabama, when Brown led Troy and Malzahn walked the sidelines at Auburn.

“Coach Malzahn wants to run the football,” Brown said Monday. “They’re one of the top rushing offenses in the country. It starts with their running back, Harvey. He was really good last year, (but) he’s elite this year. Tough to tackle, makes people miss and has a great feel for their zone schemes that they’re running.”

Both teams eye bowl eligibility

West Virginia needs to win either against UCF or at Texas Tech in the finale on Nov. 30 to become bowl eligible.