Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears Picks and Predictions November 28th 2024

Lions vs Bears November 28th 2024

The Bears and Lions will face off on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30 ET on CBS. This week 13 NFC North matchup is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions are favored by -10.5 and have a money line of -590, while the Bears’ money line is +433. The over/under line is set at 48.5 points.

Chicago vs. Detroit Key Information

Chicago enters week 13 on a five-game losing streak, dropping their record to 4-7. After a 19-point win over the Jaguars in week 6, the Bears have been unable to get back in the win column, including a 30-27 loss to the Vikings in week 12. Chicago was a 3-point underdog in that game, and the combined 57 points went over the 39.5-point line.

The Bears currently rank 24th in our power rankings and have just a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. They are 6-4-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +0.4 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-7, with their games averaging 39.8 points compared to an average line of 42.4.

Heading into week 13, the Bears’ offense ranks 23rd in our power rankings. They sit 21st in the NFL in points per game (20.1) and 26th in yards per game (298.9). Despite ranking 12th in passing attempts, they are 29th in passing yards per game (187.1). On the ground, Chicago ranks 15th in rushing attempts and 22nd in rushing yards per game (111.8). They have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 32.3% of their attempts, which ranks 29th in the league. However, they are 7th in red zone conversion percentage, scoring on 42.3% of their trips.

Caleb Williams is coming off a 340-yard, 2-touchdown performance in week 12 against the Vikings, completing 32 of 47 passes without an interception. DJ Moore led the team with 7 catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. Chicago scored 17 points in the 4th quarter after being shut out in the 3rd. Before that, Williams threw for 231 yards in week 11 and 120 yards in week 10.

In their 30-27 overtime loss to the Vikings, the Bears’ defense gave up 452 yards, including 328 yards through the air. Chicago allowed Minnesota to average 9.4 yards per passing attempt and convert on 46.2% of their third down attempts. The Bears also gave up 124 rushing yards on 27 attempts.

Chicago’s defense did manage to record three sacks in the game and had a +5 advantage in quarterback hits, despite losing the tackles for loss battle by -3. The Bears allowed the Vikings to complete 65.7% of their passes and score two passing touchdowns.

With a 10-1 record, the Lions sit atop our NFL power rankings and have a 9-game winning streak. This includes a 24-6 win over the Colts in week 12, where they covered the 7-point spread. Detroit bounced back from a week 2 loss to the Bucs by winning 9 straight, including a 46-point win over the Jaguars in week 11 and a 38-point win over the Cowboys in week 6.

Our projections give the Lions a 100% chance of making the playoffs and an 84.4% chance of winning the NFC North. They are 9-2 against the spread and have a +16.1 scoring margin this season. Their O/U record is 5-5-1, with their games averaging 49.4 points.

Heading into week 13, the Lions are 2nd in our offensive power rankings, leading the NFL with 32.7 points per game. They rank 2nd in total yards per game (394.3) and 6th in passing yards (243.5), despite being 27th in passing attempts. On the ground, Detroit is 4th in rushing yards per game (150.8) on 32.4 attempts per game, which ranks 3rd. The Lions have been strong on 3rd down, converting 46.8% of their attempts, and they rank 3rd in red zone attempts, although they are 29th in red zone conversion percentage.

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Jared Goff threw for 269 yards in week 12, completing 26 of 36 passes without a touchdown or interception. He was sacked 3 times. Jahmyr Gibbs led the rushing attack with 90 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 carries, while Jameson Williams had 5 catches for 64 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had 161 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 11, is questionable for week 13 with a knee injury.

Indianapolis managed only 11 completions for 172 yards through the air against the Lions in their most recent game. Detroit’s defense was stingy on third down, allowing just a 25% conversion rate, and held the Colts to 6 points in a 24-6 win. The Lions’ run defense gave up 96 yards on 21 attempts, and despite not recording any sacks, they limited the Colts to a rushing yards per attempt of 4.6.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Bears to cover as 10.5-point underdogs in this week 13 matchup between the Bears and Lions. Even though the Lions are the heavy favorites at -10.5, we have the Bears losing by a score of 31-23.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 48.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with our projections pointing to a combined 54 points.