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Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks November 29th 2024
ESNU will be covering the Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Bowling Green Falcons matchup, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Bowling Green. Both teams come in with identical 7-4 records this season. The over/under line is at 42.5 points, and the Falcons are the -2.5 point favorites at home. The current money line odds are +116 for Miami (OH) and -139 for Bowling Green.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Key Information
- Teams: RedHawks at Falcons
- Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium Bowling Green
- Date: Friday, November 29th
- Betting Odds BOWLGR -139 | MIAOH +116 O/U 42.5
The RedHawks Can Win If…
Miami (OH) enters Week 14 with a 7-4 record, facing Bowling Green on the road. They are 4-1 at home and 2-3 on the road this season. The RedHawks have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and hold a 23.2% chance of winning the Mid-American Conference.
Miami (OH) is 6-0 as the favorite this season, with a +6.1 average scoring margin. Their ATS record stands at 5-5, going 4-2 as the favorite and 1-3 as the underdog.
The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points. Miami (OH) games have averaged an over/under line of 45.1 points, with their over/under record at 4-5-1 and an average total of 41.7 points per game.
Miami (OH) heads into week 14 averaging 23.9 points per game, placing them 77th nationally. Our offensive power rankings have them 95th. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has thrown for 2,355 yards with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 91.
The RedHawks average 225.3 passing yards per game, ranking 68th. They convert just 32.3% of their third downs, which is 118th in the country. Keyon Mozee leads the rushing attack with 937 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry. Reggie Virgil has 705 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.
Miami (OH)’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 13th nationally by allowing just 17.8 points per game. They’ve also held opponents to 177.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 23rd, and a passer rating of 66.9, the 11th-lowest in the country.
In their recent game against Northern Illinois, Miami’s defense gave up only 9 points and allowed 242 total yards. They held the Huskies to 114 passing yards and forced one interception.
- The Miami (OH) RedHawks have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 0-2-1.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have gone 7-3 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 4-5-1.
The Falcons Can Win If…
Bowling Green enters Week 14 with a 7-4 record, and they are guaranteed bowl eligibility. They have a 36.2% chance of winning the Mid-American title, according to projections. At home, they are 2-2, while their road record stands at 4-2.
The Falcons have been favored in seven of their 11 games this season, going 5-2 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +8.5 points per game, and they are 5-5 against the spread, with a 4-2 record on the road and 1-3 at home.
The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points, the lowest they’ve faced this season. Bowling Green’s over/under record is 3-7, with their games averaging 47.6 points and an average line of 51.1 points.
Heading into week 14, Bowling Green’s offense ranks 67th in our college football power rankings, averaging 28.1 points per game. Quarterback Connor Bazelak has thrown for 2,453 yards, leading the team to 43rd in completions per game. His passer rating is 101, with 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, and he has completed 67.6% of his passes. Nationally, Bowling Green ranks 18th in completion percentage.
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The Falcons are 66th in passing yards per game, averaging 225.9 yards. Terion Stewart leads the ground game with 861 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Bowling Green is 76th in rushing yards nationally. Malcolm Johnson Jr. has 429 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.
Bowling Green’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 19th nationally by allowing just 19.5 points per game. They also rank 19th in passing yards allowed, giving up only 174.6 yards per game and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 56.3% completion rate.
In their recent 38-13 win over Ball State, Bowling Green’s defense allowed just 13 points and 254 total yards. They were particularly effective against the run, giving up only 43 rushing yards on 24 attempts.
- Spanning across their last three games, Bowling Green have gone 2-1. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 0-3.
- Bowling Green has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.
The Lean
Our projections have Miami (OH) winning this matchup 20-19 over Bowling Green in a game where they are +2.5 point underdogs. We like Miami (OH) to win straight-up and would also take them to cover the spread.
With the over/under line set at 42.5 points, our models are pointing towards the under, as we see these teams combining for just 39 points.
