Southern Methodist Mustangs vs California Golden Bears Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

SMU Mustangs vs California Golden Bears November 30th 2024

SMU Mustangs is the heavy favorite in this week 14 matchup against the California Golden Bears, with a -13.5 point spread in their favor. The game is set for 3:30 ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, and ESPN2 will be covering the action. The over/under line is currently at 57.5 points. The money line odds have SMU at -498 and California at +371. SMU comes in with a 10-1 record, while California is 6-5 for the season.

California vs. SMU Key Information

California enters Week 14 with a 6-5 record, and they are 100% bowl-eligible. They are 3-3 on the road and 2-2 at home this season. The Golden Bears have been favored in six of their 11 games and are 4-2 as the favorite.

California’s ATS record stands at 6-4, with a +7.2 average scoring margin. They are 3-1 against the spread on the road and 3-3 at home, going 3-3 as the favorite and 3-1 as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is 57.5 points. California’s games have averaged 48.6 points, with an average over/under line of 52 points. Their over/under record is 3-5-2, with eight games having lower lines than this week’s total.

California’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 22nd in passing attempts and 21st in passing yards, with 276.1 yards per game. They are 12th in completions and 13th in completion percentage, completing 67.8% of their passes. Heading into week 14, they are 54th in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game, and we have them 74th in our offensive power rankings.

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Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 3,004 yards, completing 68.7% of his passes, with a passer rating of 99. He has 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. On the ground, California is averaging 119.6 rushing yards per game. Jaivian Thomas leads the team with 598 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Nyziah Hunter has 493 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

California’s defense ranks 25th nationally, allowing 20.7 points per game. They’ve given up 228.3 passing yards per game, ranking 103rd, but have held opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 67.4, the 12th-lowest in the country. Opponents have completed 55.6% of their passes against Cal’s defense.

In their recent game against Stanford, Cal’s defense allowed 21 points, giving up 261 total yards. Stanford rushed 39 times for 120 yards and threw for 141 yards on 15 completions. The Golden Bears also rank 22nd in the nation against the run, allowing just 109.6 rushing yards per game.

SMU enters Week 14 with a 10-1 record and a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. They have a 42% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast and hold the 11th best odds to make the CFB playoff at 62.7%. So far, they are 4-1 at home and 4-0 on the road this season.

The Mustangs have been favored in seven of their 11 games, going 6-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +18.3 points per game, and they are 6-3 against the spread this season.

SMU’s over/under record is 5-4, with their games averaging 60.3 points. This week’s line is set at 57.5 points, compared to their average line of 54 points.

SMU’s offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, ranking 5th nationally in scoring. They are 26th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,521 yards with a passer rating of 107, completing 66.7% of his passes. SMU ranks 30th in passing yards per game.

Jennings has 17 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions this season. On the ground, Brashard Smith has rushed for 1,086 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored 13 touchdowns. SMU is 27th in rushing attempts, averaging 189.5 rushing yards per game.

SMU’s defense shined in their recent 33-7 win over Virginia, allowing just 7 points and 173 total yards. They held Virginia to 65 rushing yards on 39 attempts and 108 passing yards.

On the season, SMU ranks 9th nationally, giving up just 97.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve allowed an average passer rating of 76, which is 35th best in the country.

SMU is the heavy favorite in their week 14 matchup against California, with the point spread set at -13.5 in their favor. We expect SMU to win convincingly, with a projected final score of 40-21.

Given our projection of 61 total points, we recommend taking the over, as it exceeds the current over/under line of 57.5 points. For the best bet, take SMU to cover the spread while also looking for the over in this one.

No. 9 SMU Seeks to Bolster Playoff Chances Against Cal

As No. 9 SMU closes out its regular season on Saturday afternoon in Dallas, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With a perfect ACC record and a spot in the conference championship game secured, the Mustangs are now eyeing a potential berth in the College Football Playoff (CFP). However, standing in their way is a resilient Cal team looking to cap its season with an upset.

SMU’s Playoff Case

SMU (10-1, 7-0 ACC) has been one of the most impressive teams in the nation this season. Under head coach Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs have showcased an explosive offense and a stout defense, making them a formidable force in their inaugural ACC campaign.

Lashlee emphasized the importance of finishing strong.

“The regular season is important,” he said. “We’d like to finish well in everything we do … and continue to show the committee and others that we’re worthy of continuing to play this year.”

Key Players for SMU

• Kevin Jennings (QB): Jennings has thrown for 2,521 yards, 17 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while adding 315 rushing yards and four TDs. His dual-threat ability has made him one of the top quarterbacks in the country.
• Brashard Smith (RB): With 1,089 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, Smith has been a workhorse for the Mustangs.
• Defense: SMU’s defense has been opportunistic, tied for 14th nationally with 20 takeaways, and its dominant defensive line has been a critical factor in their success.

Cal: Underdogs with Momentum

Cal (6-5, 2-5 ACC) enters the game fresh off a thrilling 24-21 victory over rival Stanford, a win that secured bowl eligibility for the Golden Bears. Despite their record, Cal has been competitive all season, with all five losses coming by one score.

Head coach Justin Wilcox praised SMU while acknowledging the challenge ahead.

“They’re very, very good really in every phase of the game,” Wilcox said. “We’ve got a lot of challenges in front of us, and our guys are excited for that.”

Key Players for Cal

• Fernando Mendoza (QB): Mendoza has thrown for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions, providing stability to Cal’s offense.
• Nohl Williams (DB): Leading the nation with seven interceptions, Williams anchors a defense that ranks first in the ACC in scoring defense (20.7 points per game) and turnover margin (plus-13).
• Jack Endries (TE): Endries leads the team with 555 receiving yards, while Nyziah Hunter has caught a team-high five touchdowns.

Cal quarterback Mendoza summed up their approach.
“Our task at hand is to make the best bowl game right now. And the way to do that is to go into Dallas, give it our best, and ruin SMU’s season.”

Matchups to Watch

1. Kevin Jennings vs. Cal’s Secondary: With Nohl Williams leading the country in interceptions, Jennings must avoid turnovers to keep SMU’s offense on track.
2. Brashard Smith vs. Cal’s Run Defense: Cal’s defense, which thrives on forcing mistakes, will need to slow Smith down to have a chance at pulling off the upset.
3. Fernando Mendoza vs. SMU’s Pass Rush: Mendoza will be tested by SMU’s dominant defensive line, which has consistently disrupted opposing quarterbacks.
4. Turnover Battle: Both teams excel in forcing turnovers. The team that wins this category will likely control the game.

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The Bigger Picture

For SMU, this game is about more than finishing the regular season strong—it’s about solidifying their playoff resume. A win over Cal would not only maintain their perfect ACC record but also send a clear message to the CFP committee about their legitimacy as a top contender.

For Cal, the goal is simpler but no less significant: spoil SMU’s playoff hopes and improve their own bowl prospects. With a defense capable of making game-changing plays and an offense that has kept them competitive, the Golden Bears are not to be overlooked.

Saturday’s showdown marks the first-ever conference meeting between these teams and just the second time they’ve faced off overall. SMU won their only previous encounter, a 13-6 victory in 1957. This time, however, the stakes are much higher. Will SMU continue its march toward the CFP, or will Cal play spoiler in Dallas? All eyes will be on this pivotal ACC clash.