Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

The 49ers and Bills will face off on Sunday, December 1st at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Bills are the heavy favorite with a money line of -319, and they are favored by -7 in this non-conference matchup. The over/under line is set at 45.5 points. The 49ers need to add their record to this one.

San Francisco vs. Buffalo Key Information

• Teams: 49ers at Bills
• Where: Highmark Stadium Orchard Park
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds BUF -319 | SF +252 O/U 45.5

The 49ers Can Win If…

Heading into week 13, the 49ers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 38-10 loss to the Packers in week 12. San Francisco was a 6.5-point underdog in that game but couldn’t cover the spread, leaving them at 4-7 against the spread this season. They have an average scoring margin of 0 points per game and rank 7th in our NFL power rankings.

With a 5-6 record, the 49ers currently have a 16.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 12.9% chance of winning the NFC West. They are 1-3 in division games and 3-5 in conference play, putting them 4th in the NFC West. In our O/U betting stats, the over has hit in 6 of their 11 games this season.

Heading into week 13, the 49ers are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 13th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.6, and 4th in passing yards per game with 246.2, despite being 20th in passing attempts. San Francisco is 7th in rushing yards per game, averaging 138.4, on 28.5 attempts per game. They are 6th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, but their red zone conversion rate of 16.7% ranks 21st.

In week 12, the 49ers struggled offensively, scoring just 10 points in a loss to the Packers. Brandon Allen, filling in for Brock Purdy, threw for 197 yards, completing 17 of 29 passes with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Christian McCaffrey had 31 rushing yards on 11 carries, and George Kittle led the team with 6 catches for 82 yards.

In their 38-10 loss to the Packers, the 49ers’ defense allowed just 13 completions for 156 yards in the passing game. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 169 yards on 42 attempts. The 49ers’ offense managed only 10 points in this one, and the defense was on the field for 32:16 minutes of the game. The 49ers’ defense did force the Packers into 3rd down 15 times, but Green Bay converted on 7 of those opportunities.

The 49ers’ defense also came up with two sacks in the game and had two tackles for loss compared to the Packers. Despite their struggles against the run, the 49ers did a good job limiting the Packers in the passing game, holding them to just 6.8 yards per attempt.

• Across San Francisco’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 0-3 to go along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• San Francisco has put together a record of 4-6 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-7 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo’s 9-2 record has them atop the AFC East, and our projections give them a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Bills are currently on a six-game winning streak, including a 30-21 victory over the Chiefs in week 11. They also picked up wins over the Colts, Dolphins, Seahawks, Titans, and Jets during this stretch.

Heading into week 13, Buffalo ranks 3rd in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and are 7-4 against the spread. The over has hit in three straight Bills games, including their matchup with the Chiefs, which saw 51 points scored on a 47-point line.

Josh Allen threw for 262 yards (27/40) and a touchdown in week 11 against the Chiefs, posting a passer rating of 83. He also led the team in rushing with 55 yards on 12 carries. Khalil Shakir was the top receiver, with 8 catches for 70 yards. The Bills scored 14 points in the 4th quarter and converted 9 of 15 3rd downs, while going 3/4 in the red zone.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.1, and they are 13th in passing yards per game (226.1) and rushing yards per game (119.2). They are 9th in 3rd down conversions and 2nd in red zone attempts, but their red zone conversion rate of 6.4% ranks 28th in the league.

Buffalo’s defense gave up three passing touchdowns in their 30-21 win over the Chiefs, but they also came away with two interceptions. The Bills allowed just 78 rushing yards on 17 attempts and held Kansas City to 181 passing yards. The Chiefs completed 69.7% of their passes and converted on 50% of their third down attempts.

Despite giving up three passing scores, Buffalo’s defense was able to make key plays and help secure the victory. The Bills also recorded two sacks and had a positive quarterback hit differential.

• Over their last three games, the Bills have gone 3-0 straight up. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 3-0.
• The Bills have gone 9-1 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-4, while posting an over-under record of 8-2.

The Lean

Our pick against the spread is to take the 49ers to cover as road underdogs in this week 13 matchup vs. the Bills. Right now, the 49ers are +7 point road underdogs, and we have them not only covering but winning by a score of 20-18.

For an over/under pick, we like going with the under, with a projected combined score of 38 points and the O/U line sitting at 45.5 points.

Bills Poised to Secure AFC East Crown

The Buffalo Bills (9-2) are on a roll, riding a six-game win streak and sitting at the top of the AFC East. With a win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, coupled with a Miami Dolphins loss earlier in the week, the Bills can officially clinch their fifth consecutive division title.

Quarterback Josh Allen has been instrumental in Buffalo’s offensive surge, passing for 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions this season. The Bills have scored 30 or more points in their last five games, including a commanding 30-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs before their bye week.

“To be at the bye week … at 9-2 and obviously feeling confident about what we got going on here … it’s a great feeling,” said Allen.

Despite their success, Buffalo players like cornerback Taron Johnson remain focused on staying sharp.

“Even though we have a good record, we still have things we have to clean up and things we got to get better at,” Johnson emphasized.

49ers Reeling From Injuries

For the San Francisco 49ers (5-6), injuries have derailed a promising season. After starting the year strong, the 49ers have dropped two straight games and now find themselves fighting to stay in playoff contention.

San Francisco is dealing with uncertainty at quarterback. Starter Brock Purdy is nursing a shoulder injury that kept him out last week, forcing backup Brandon Allen into action. Allen struggled in a 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers, completing just 17 of 29 passes for 199 yards, one touchdown, and two turnovers.

Running back Christian McCaffrey, a key offensive piece, has yet to regain his form after missing significant time earlier in the season with an Achilles injury. McCaffrey has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in his three games back.

“When you lose and maybe you don’t jump out on the stat sheet, your failures are highlighted,” McCaffrey said.

San Francisco’s woes extend to the defensive side, where Nick Bosa (hip, oblique) and Trent Williams (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday and remain questionable. Meanwhile, Fred Warner revealed he’s been playing through a fractured bone in his ankle since late September.

“It’s not an excuse. It’s just what it is. That’s the NFL,” Warner said.

Key Matchups

Bills Offense vs. 49ers Defense
Buffalo’s high-octane offense, averaging over 39 points per game in recent matchups against San Francisco, will test a depleted 49ers defense. With Allen leading the charge and tight end Dalton Kincaid potentially returning, the Bills have a diverse array of weapons to exploit mismatches.

49ers Running Game vs. Bills Front Seven
For the 49ers to stay competitive, McCaffrey must establish the run game against a stout Bills front. A strong ground attack will alleviate pressure on whoever starts at quarterback for San Francisco.

Injury Updates

49ers:

• Out: Nick Bosa (hip, oblique), Trent Williams (ankle)
• Questionable: Brock Purdy (shoulder), Christian McCaffrey (Achilles)

Bills:

• Out: Tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee)
• Activated: Linebacker Matt Milano (biceps)

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Prediction

The Bills’ balanced offense and opportunistic defense should prove too much for an injury-ravaged 49ers team. While San Francisco’s resilience is commendable, the absence of key players like Purdy and Bosa makes it hard to envision an upset.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 34, 49ers 17