Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins November 30th 2024

The Penn State Nittany Lions are the heavy favorite heading into this week 14 matchup against the Maryland Terrapins, with the point spread set at -24.5 in their favor. The game is scheduled for 3:30 ET at Beaver Stadium in University Park and will be broadcast on BTN. Penn State enters the game with a 10-1 record, while Maryland is looking to pull off the upset with their 4-7 record. The over/under line is currently at 50.5 points.

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Maryland vs. Penn State Key Information

• Teams: Terrapins at Nittany Lions
• Where: Beaver Stadium University Park
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds PENNST -3585 | MARY +1343 O/U 50.5

The Terrapins Can Win If…

Maryland enters Week 14 against Penn State with a 4-7 record and no chance of bowl eligibility. They rank 67th in our power rankings, having gone 2-4 at home and 1-3 on the road this season.

The Terrapins have been favored in four games, going 1-3 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is -4 points per game, and they are 4-6 against the spread this season.

Maryland’s over/under record is 6-3-1, with their games averaging 54.4 points. The average line has been 49.5 points, and this week’s line is set at 50.5 points.

Maryland’s offense is ranked 69th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14, and they are also 70th in points per game, scoring 25.2 per contest. Their passing game has been the focal point, ranking 4th in both passing attempts and completions, with 42.3 attempts and 27.3 completions per game. They are 12th in passing yards, averaging 289.6 yards per game, and their third-down conversion rate is 41.7%.

Billy Edwards Jr. has thrown for 2,881 yards this season, completing 65% of his passes. He has 15 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, with a passer rating of 87. On the ground, Maryland is 112th in rushing, averaging 116.7 yards per game. Roman Hemby leads the team with 543 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Tai Felton has 92 catches for 1,097 yards and nine touchdowns.

Maryland’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 29.2 points per game. They rank 131st in the nation in passing yards allowed, giving up 245.7 yards per game, with opposing quarterbacks completing 62.2% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 92.6. On the ground, Maryland has allowed 133.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 56th nationally.

In their recent game against Iowa, Maryland’s defense gave up 29 points and 21 first downs. They allowed 273 rushing yards on 57 attempts but limited Iowa to just 76 passing yards on 14 attempts.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Maryland Terrapins have gone 0-3 straight up. Against the spread, Maryland went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Maryland has a record of 3-7. Against the spread, Maryland went 3-7 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-3-1.

The Nittany Lions Can Win If…

Penn State enters Week 14 with a 10-1 record, holding the 9th spot in our power rankings. They are 100% bowl-eligible and have a 4.2% chance of winning the Big Ten. However, they have a 98.7% chance of making the CFB playoff, the 3rd highest in the nation.

The Nittany Lions have a +17.7 average scoring margin this season. They are 5-5 against the spread, going 2-4 at home and 3-1 on the road. Penn State has been favored in nine of their 11 games, with a 5-4 ATS record as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is 50.5 points. Penn State’s games have averaged 47 points, with an average over/under line of 49.6 points. Their over/under record is 3-7 this season.

Heading into week 14, Penn State’s offense ranks 32nd in points per game, averaging 32.4. However, they are 7th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 2,497 yards with a passer rating of 116, and Penn State ranks 6th in passer rating nationally. They are also 3rd in completion percentage, completing 72.2% of their passes, and convert 48.8% of their third downs, ranking 8th in that category.

Allar has 17 touchdown passes and five interceptions this season. The Nittany Lions are 37th in passing yards per game, averaging 253.2 yards. On the ground, they average 193.7 rushing yards per game. Kaytron Allen leads the rushing attack with 664 yards and five touchdowns. Harrison Wallace III is the top receiver, with 579 yards and three touchdowns.

Penn State’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 7th nationally by allowing just 14.6 points per game. They are also 13th in the country against the run, giving up only 102 rushing yards per game, and 18th in passing yards allowed, at 174.1 yards per game.

In their recent game against Minnesota, Penn State’s defense allowed 25 points but gave up just 107 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 175 passing yards. They also forced an interception in the game.

• Over their last three games, the Penn State Nittany Lions have gone 2-1 straight up. But, they did not perform well vs the spread in these games, going 1-2. Their over-under record in these matchups was 0-3.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Penn State has a record of 7-3. Across these games, their ATS record was just 3-7, while posting an over-under record of 3-7.

The Lean

Penn State is favored by -24.5 points in their week 14 matchup against Maryland. We expect the Nittany Lions to win comfortably, with a projected final score of 41-13 in their favor.

Given the over/under line of 50.5 points, our projection of 54 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play. For Penn State vs. Maryland, we see the combined score going over the line.

College Football Picks from Expert Handicappers

No. 4 Penn State Focuses on Maryland Amid Playoff Aspirations

Penn State fans have long awaited this moment—a chance to see the Nittany Lions make their debut in the College Football Playoff (CFP). Now, with No. 4 Penn State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) hosting Maryland (4-7, 1-7) this Saturday in University Park, Pa., the stakes couldn’t be higher.

A victory over the Terrapins would all but guarantee Penn State a spot in the inaugural 12-team CFP field, finalized on Dec. 8. Beyond that, if No. 2 Ohio State stumbles against Michigan on Saturday, Penn State could find themselves in the Big Ten championship game—a dream scenario for the program and its passionate fanbase.

However, head coach James Franklin is adamant about focusing on the task at hand, avoiding any distractions that could derail the team’s momentum.

“We want an opportunity to compete as many times as we possibly can this year,” Franklin said. “But all we have to do is focus on playing Maryland this week. If we’re not focused on that, then everything else becomes questionable.”

Playoff Aspirations Within Reach

The Nittany Lions’ CFP hopes hinge on maintaining their form against Maryland, especially after a narrow 26-25 escape against Minnesota last week. That victory preserved their CFP standing and solidified their projected first-round matchup against Indiana in the playoff’s expanded format.

A win over Maryland on Senior Day would solidify their postseason destiny. However, with so much at stake, Franklin’s emphasis on discipline and execution is paramount.

Drew Allar’s Stellar Form

Quarterback Drew Allar is hitting his stride at the perfect time. Over the past three games, Allar has completed 77.3% of his passes, throwing five touchdowns without a single interception.

The sophomore has already proven his ability to pick apart Maryland’s defense, as evidenced by his four-touchdown performance in last year’s 51-15 road win.

This time, however, Allar will be without star offensive tackle Anthony Donkoh, who sustained a right knee injury against Minnesota. Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci will step into the starting role, and his performance could be crucial in protecting Allar and maintaining the team’s offensive rhythm.

Maryland’s Struggles and Bright Spots

Maryland enters this matchup amid a disappointing season, having lost four straight games. Their 29-13 defeat to Iowa last week confirmed they will miss bowl eligibility for the first time since 2020.

Adding to their woes is uncertainty at quarterback. Regular starter Billy Edwards Jr. has struggled in recent weeks and exited the Iowa game after taking a big hit. Backup MJ Morris, a transfer from North Carolina State, stepped in and delivered a mixed performance, throwing two touchdowns but also two interceptions.

Head coach Michael Locksley expressed cautious optimism about Edwards’ availability, noting the quarterback has been battling injuries all season.

“He’s fought through all year, and I expect him to try to make himself available this weekend,” Locksley said.

Despite Maryland’s challenges, senior wide receiver Tai Felton has been a beacon of excellence. Felton ranks among the nation’s best with 92 receptions and 1,097 receiving yards this season. He is just 143 yards away from breaking Maryland’s single-season receiving record, making him a key player to watch.

Keys to the Game

For Penn State:

• Stay Focused: As Franklin emphasized, the team cannot afford to overlook Maryland, even with larger goals in sight.
• Offensive Line Adjustments: Protecting Allar without Donkoh will be critical to sustaining offensive success.
• Control the Game Early: Establishing an early lead could neutralize any upset ambitions from Maryland.

For Maryland:

• Felton’s Breakout Potential: If Felton can capitalize on mismatches in Penn State’s secondary, he could provide the spark Maryland needs.
• Quarterback Consistency: Regardless of who starts, limiting turnovers will be crucial to keeping the game competitive.
• Resilience on Defense: Maryland must find a way to pressure Allar and disrupt Penn State’s passing game.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Both head coaches have instilled a sense of urgency in their teams. Franklin’s message to Penn State revolves around blocking out distractions and focusing solely on the immediate challenge.

Meanwhile, Locksley is leaning on his senior leaders, particularly Felton, to rally the Terrapins for what could be the final game of their collegiate careers.

“I got a bunch of seniors that are all for the smoke,” Locksley said. “They’re showing up, doing the work, and nobody’s hanging their heads.”

The Final Countdown

For Penn State, this game is about more than just securing a win—it’s about staying on course for a historic season. Maryland, on the other hand, will look to play spoiler while giving their seniors a memorable send-off.

As the stakes rise, one thing is clear: focus and execution will determine whether Penn State takes another step toward their long-awaited CFP debut or if Maryland writes an unlikely upset story.