Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers December 1st 2024

The Bengals are favored at -152 on the money line as they host the Steelers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Bengals are -3 point favorites on the point spread. This week 13 AFC North matchup is being televised on CBS. The over/under line is set at 47 points.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Steelers at Bengals
• Where: Paycor Stadium Cincinnati
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds CIN -152 | PIT +127 O/U 47

The Steelers Can Win If…

Despite a week 12 loss to the Browns, the Steelers remain atop the AFC North with an 8-3 record. Our projections give them a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 43.0% chance of winning the division. Pittsburgh currently ranks 10th in our NFL power rankings.

So far, the Steelers have an average scoring margin of +6 and are 8-3 against the spread. They are 4-0 ATS as underdogs and 4-3 as favorites. Their O/U record is 6-5, with their games averaging 39.8 points compared to an average line of 40.4.

Heading into week 13, the Steelers sit 17th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.9, and are 18th in yards per game with 328. Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on the run game, ranking 2nd in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game (135.2). On the other hand, they are 31st in passing attempts and 26th in passing yards per game, averaging 192.8.

Russell Wilson had a strong performance in week 12, posting a passer rating of 116 with 270 yards and a touchdown on 21/28 passing. Calvin Austin III led the team with 78 receiving yards, while Jaylen Warren had 45 rushing yards on 11 carries. Pittsburgh scored 13 points in the 4th quarter against the Browns, converting 7 of 16 third downs and going 1/2 in the red zone.

In their 24-19 loss to the Browns, the Steelers’ defense held Cleveland to just a 10% third-down conversion rate. They allowed 219 passing yards on 18 completions and limited the Browns to 85 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Despite their strong coverage, the Steelers didn’t give up any passing touchdowns but managed just one sack and struggled in the backfield, losing the tackles for loss battle by 10.

The Steelers forced one interception and gave up 304 total yards, with 66.7% of their passes being completed. The Browns’ ground game was effective, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

• Through their last three games, the Steelers have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 2-1 on the over/under.
• Pittsburgh has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Bengals Can Win If…

After snapping a two-game losing streak with a win over the Raiders in week 9, the Bengals have dropped two straight, including a 34-27 loss to the Chargers in week 11. Cincinnati was a 1-point underdog in that game and couldn’t cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 6-5 this season. They are 4-3 as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. The over has hit in four straight Bengals games, and their O/U record is 8-3.

Heading into week 13, the Bengals have a 4-7 record and rank 15th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +0.1 scoring margin this season and a 13% chance of making the playoffs. Cincinnati is 1-4 at home and 3-3 on the road. In division games, they are 1-2, and they are 2-5 in conference play.

Joe Burrow has been putting up big numbers for the Bengals, throwing for 356 yards (28/50) and 3 touchdowns in week 11, following his 428-yard, 4-touchdown game in week 10. In week 9, he had a 5-touchdown performance with 251 yards. Against the Chargers in week 11, Tee Higgins led the team with 9 catches for 148 yards, while Chase Brown rushed for 86 yards on 22 carries.

Heading into week 13, the Bengals are 4th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing yards per game (262.7) and are 6th in points per game, averaging 27. On 3rd down, they convert 45.2% of the time, which ranks 5th in the league.

In their 34-27 loss to the Chargers, the Bengals’ defense struggled to stop the run, giving up 155 rushing yards on just 25 attempts, including a concerning 6.2 yards per attempt. Despite this, they did manage to hold the Chargers to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down.

Cincinnati’s defense also recorded two sacks and limited the Chargers to a 47.2% completion rate. However, they allowed 280 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and a total of 435 yards in the game. Additionally, the Bengals lost the tackles for loss battle, finishing with -1 compared to the Chargers.

• Over their last three regular season games, the Bengals have gone 1-2 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Bengals have gone 4-6 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-6-1 and an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Steelers to cover as road underdogs in this week 13 matchup between the Steelers and Bengals. Right now, the point spread lines have the Steelers at +3, making them our pick to cover, even though we have the Bengals pulling off the upset by a score of 27-25.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a projected combined score of 52 points and the line sitting at just 47 points. This is a great spot to take the over and capitalize on what looks to be a lower line than it should be.

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Bengals Look to Bounce Back as Steelers Aim to Maintain AFC North Lead

The AFC North battle heats up as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals this Sunday afternoon. Both teams come into the matchup with something to prove: the Steelers (8-3) aim to stay atop the division, while the Bengals (4-7) look to regain momentum after a disappointing season.

Steelers Seek Redemption After Tough Loss

The Steelers saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 24-19 loss to the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 21. Battling through a second-half snowstorm, Pittsburgh rallied from an 18-6 deficit to take a 19-18 lead late in the fourth quarter. However, defensive miscues—including allowing a critical fourth-down conversion—led to a game-winning touchdown by Cleveland’s Nick Chubb with under a minute to play.

Defensive tackle Cameron Heyward expressed frustration with the team’s inability to capitalize in key moments. “We just didn’t make enough of those critical plays. We’ve stepped up in critical moments before, but in our losses, we haven’t had those winning moments. We need to change that,” he said.

Despite their solid record, Pittsburgh’s losses this season have all come against teams with losing records, including the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts. With the Baltimore Ravens (8-4) nipping at their heels, the Steelers cannot afford further setbacks in the tight AFC North race.

Bengals Focus on Strong December Finish

For Cincinnati, this season has not gone as planned. After a promising start, the Bengals have dropped three of their last four games, slipping out of playoff contention. Head coach Zac Taylor is determined not to let his team throw in the towel.

“This is December football,” Taylor said. “Regardless of our record, we need to play our best football now. Our guys understand that, and they’re committed to moving forward from here.”

Cincinnati last played on Nov. 17, suffering a heartbreaking 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bengals erased a 27-6 deficit behind Joe Burrow’s three second-half touchdown passes but ultimately fell short when Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins scored the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining.

Burrow delivered an impressive performance in the loss, completing 28 of 50 passes for 356 yards and three touchdowns. As Cincinnati returns from their bye week, Burrow’s leadership will be crucial in setting the tone for the team’s December push.

Key Players and Injury Updates

Both teams face significant injury concerns heading into Sunday’s game:

Steelers

• Alex Highsmith (LB): The talented linebacker did not practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury that has already sidelined him for two games. His absence could leave Pittsburgh vulnerable against Cincinnati’s offense.
• T.J. Watt (LB): Though not mentioned in recent updates, Watt’s continued dominance will be critical to offseting Highsmith’s potential absence.

Bengals

• Orlando Brown (LT): Brown, who has missed three games with a leg injury, was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. His availability could bolster the Bengals’ protection for Burrow.
• Joe Burrow (QB): Fully participated in practice despite a wrist injury, reassuring fans that he’ll be ready to lead the offense.
• Logan Wilson (LB): Missed practice with a knee injury, raising questions about Cincinnati’s defensive depth.
• Charlie Jones (WR): Returned to practice after missing three games with a groin injury, offering an additional weapon for Burrow.

What to Watch For

1. Critical Moments Under Pressure

Both teams have struggled in high-stakes moments this season. The Steelers’ defense faltered against Cleveland, while the Bengals failed to close out a dramatic comeback against the Chargers. This matchup could come down to who executes better in the final minutes.

2. Impact of Injuries

Highsmith’s absence could limit Pittsburgh’s pass rush, while Brown’s potential return might stabilize Cincinnati’s offensive line. The health of these key players will play a pivotal role in determining each team’s success.

3. Division Dynamics

The Steelers lead the AFC North but face mounting pressure from the Ravens. A loss to the Bengals could shake their grip on the division. Meanwhile, the Bengals are focused on building momentum and finishing the season strong, even if their playoff hopes are slim.

Quotes That Set the Tone

• Cameron Heyward (Steelers): “No matter what team we’re playing, we’ve got to have those winning moments.”
• Zac Taylor (Bengals): “This is where it means something. You need to play your best football in December.”

These perspectives highlight the contrasting pressures each team faces—Pittsburgh fighting to maintain its edge, and Cincinnati striving for redemption.

Prediction and Outlook

While the Steelers are the favorites due to their superior record and division-leading status, the Bengals are far from an easy out. Burrow’s recent performances suggest that Cincinnati can capitalize on any weaknesses in Pittsburgh’s defense, especially if injuries further deplete the Steelers’ lineup.

Pittsburgh’s offense must also find consistency, as slow starts and reliance on late-game rallies have been a recurring issue. Conversely, Cincinnati will need to avoid costly mistakes and finish strong if they hope to upset the Steelers.

Final Thoughts

Sunday’s matchup promises to be a test of resilience and execution. For the Steelers, it’s about maintaining their position at the top. For the Bengals, it’s about proving they still belong in the conversation despite a challenging season. As December football begins, both teams have plenty to fight for.