New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams Picks and Predictions December 1st 2024

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams December 1st 2024

The Rams are favored on the road in their week 13 matchup against the Saints. This one kicks off at 4:05 ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints are the underdog with a point spread of +3 and their money line odds are +129. The Rams’ money line odds are -153, and the over/under line is 48.5 points. You can watch this one on FOX.

Los Angeles vs. New Orleans Key Information

• Teams: Rams at Saints
• Where: Caesars Superdome New Orleans
• Date: Sunday, December 1st
• Betting Odds LAR -153 | NO +129 O/U 48.5

The Rams Can Win If…

After defeating the Patriots in week 11, the Rams couldn’t keep the momentum going, losing 37-20 to the Eagles in week 12. This dropped them to 5-6, putting them 3rd in the NFC West with a 2-1 division record. Our power rankings have them 17th, and they have a 14.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Against the spread, the Rams are 4-7, with a scoring margin of -3.9 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Matthew Stafford has been solid over his last three games, posting a passer rating of 104 in week 12 against the Eagles, with 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. In week 11, he threw for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns, achieving a passer rating of 142. Before that, he had 293 yards in week 10. Puka Nacua has been his top target, with 9 receptions for 117 yards in week 12, following a 123-yard performance in week 11 and 98 yards in week 10. Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 72 yards on 16 carries in week 12.

Despite these individual performances, the Rams’ offense struggled on third down in week 12, failing to convert any of their 8 attempts. They are currently ranked 31st in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage. Heading into week 13, they are averaging 21.2 points per game, which ranks 19th in the league, and they sit 15th in our offensive power rankings.

Despite giving up 314 rushing yards and 7.0 yards per attempt on the ground, the Rams’ defense held the Eagles to 167 passing yards in their most recent game, which was a 37-20 loss to Philadelphia. The Eagles rushed for 481 total yards and 7.6 yards per attempt through the air. Los Angeles’ defense allowed Philadelphia to convert on 60% of their third down attempts.

Even though the Rams’ defense allowed just 15 completions, they struggled to generate pressure, finishing with only one sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials to the Eagles.

• Los Angeles has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across Los Angeles’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. Against the spread, Los Angeles went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Saints Can Win If…

After snapping a five-game losing streak with back-to-back wins, the Saints are now 4-7 on the season. They followed up a narrow 20-17 victory over the Falcons in week 10 with a 35-14 win against the Browns in week 11. New Orleans was the underdog in both games, including a +1 line vs. Cleveland, but they comfortably covered with a 21-point win.

Heading into week 13, the Saints rank 20th in our power rankings and have a 3.7% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record stands at 7-4, with their games averaging 47.5 points per game. New Orleans is 5-6 against the spread, with a +0.2 scoring margin.

New Orleans ranks 16th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. They are 11th in the NFL in points per game (23.8) and 347.4 passing yards per game. They rank 17th in passing yards per game (216.6) and 18th in passing attempts. On the ground, the Saints are 11th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards per game, averaging 130.7 yards. They rank 14th in third-down conversion percentage and 17th in red zone conversions.

Derek Carr has been playing well, posting a passer rating of 129 in week 11, with 248 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21/27 passing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with 87 receiving yards, while Taysom Hill had 138 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. The Saints scored 21 points in the 4th quarter against the Browns in week 11.

In their most recent game, the Saints’ defense allowed 377 passing yards to the Browns, despite coming out with a 35-14 victory. The Browns had two passing touchdowns and managed to gain 443 total yards. However, the Saints’ defense was tough on the ground, allowing just 66 rushing yards on 20 attempts.

New Orleans’ defense held Cleveland to a 23.1% conversion rate on third down and recorded three sacks while winning the quarterback hit differential by three. Even though the Browns had some success through the air, the Saints’ defense made it difficult for them to sustain drives.

• The Saints have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Saints have gone 6-4 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

The Lean

For this week 13 matchup between the Rams and Saints, we have the Rams coming out on top by a score of 25-23. Even though the Rams are the favorites at -3, our pick vs. the spread is to take the Saints to cover as home underdogs.

As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 48.5 points, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 48 points.

Football Picks

Rams, Saints Battle to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

Both the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams are at critical junctures in their seasons, navigating injuries, inconsistencies, and off-field distractions as they strive to stay in the playoff hunt. With slim margins for error, these teams face off Sunday afternoon in New Orleans, hoping to gain momentum in their respective NFC divisions.

Saints Revitalized Under Darren Rizzi

The Saints (4-7) have seen a resurgence since interim head coach Darren Rizzi took the reins. Following a seven-game losing streak that led to Dennis Allen’s dismissal, Rizzi has led the team to consecutive victories against the Atlanta Falcons (20-17) and Cleveland Browns (35-14). The Browns win was particularly impressive, with the Saints shutting them out 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

Rizzi credits the turnaround to a focused, week-by-week mentality:

“It’s easy to get caught up in all the changes. The biggest thing is keeping the focus on the next opponent. That other stuff will take care of itself.”

The Saints are now third in the NFC South, trailing the Falcons by two games and the Buccaneers by one.

Improved Health Spurs Saints’ Momentum

A key factor in the Saints’ resurgence is their improving health:

• Quarterback Derek Carr has grown more confident since returning from an oblique strain, showing steady improvement over the past three games.
• Center Erik McCoy’s return after a seven-game absence boosted the offensive line, although his ongoing soreness is a concern.
• Receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, signed in October to fill the gap left by injured stars Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, has emerged as a key weapon, with three touchdown receptions and an average of 39.2 yards per catch in the last two games.

Despite these positives, injury concerns remain. Key players like Lucas Patrick (calf) and Foster Moreau (shoulder) are limited in practice, and McCoy’s status will be closely monitored.

Rams Struggle With Inconsistency

The Rams have been a tale of two teams this season, alternating promising winning streaks with frustrating losses. Their recent 37-20 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles underscored their struggles on both sides of the ball:

• Defense: The Rams allowed Saquon Barkley to rush for a career-high 255 yards and two touchdowns.
• Offense: Quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked five times, hampered by an offensive line weakened by injuries.

Despite these setbacks, the Rams remain optimistic. Currently tied with the San Francisco 49ers for last place in the NFC West, they are just one game behind the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals, who they’ll face again this season.

Safety Kamren Curl summed up the team’s mindset:

“It’s still wide open. We play everybody again, so our fate is in our hands.”

Rams Face Key Challenges

Injuries and distractions continue to plague the Rams:

• Offensive Line Woes: Left tackle Alaric Jackson missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury, while right tackle Rob Havenstein, who missed the last three games, practiced fully.
• Distractions: Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson was arrested for DUI early Monday morning but will still play Sunday, according to head coach Sean McVay.
• Depth Concerns: Tight end Tyler Higbee (knee) and cornerback Charles Woods (ankle) remain limited in practice.

Despite these obstacles, the Rams boast playmakers like Robinson, who had a touchdown catch against the Eagles, and Stafford, whose leadership will be crucial as the team fights to stay in the playoff race.

Playoff Implications and Key Matchups

Sunday’s game is pivotal for both teams:

• The Saints are chasing the NFC South crown, with matchups against the Falcons and Buccaneers looming large.
• The Rams must shore up their defense and offensive line to stay competitive in the tightly contested NFC West.

A win for either team would bolster their postseason hopes, but a loss could all but end their playoff aspirations.

Final Thoughts

The Saints are riding high under Darren Rizzi’s leadership, benefiting from renewed focus and improving health. Meanwhile, the Rams face a steeper climb, needing to overcome injuries and defensive lapses to stay in contention. Sunday’s matchup promises to be a high-stakes battle, with both teams fighting to keep their seasons alive.