Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs November 30th 2024

Planning on watching today’s Maple Leafs and Lightning game? Catch the action at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, as the Lightning hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Maple Leafs are favored by -1.5 in this Atlantic division showdown. The game’s over/under is currently at 6.5 goals.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Key Information

• Teams: Maple Leafs at Lightning
• Where: Amalie Arena Tampa
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds TOR -120 | TB +101 O/U 6.5

The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto fell to 13-7-2 after a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild. The Maple Leafs were the underdogs on the puck line, and the total for the game was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for just 3.

After the Wild scored first, William Nylander tied it up with 19:08 gone in the first period. Neither team scored again until Minnesota netted the game-winner 2:14 into overtime.

In their recent game against the Wild, the Maple Leafs took 28 shots on goal but only found the net once. William Nylander scored his 9th goal of the season on a power play, with Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner picking up their 6th and 12th assists, respectively.

Toronto was held scoreless after Nylander’s goal at 19:08 in the first period. The team recorded 10 giveaways in the game.

Toronto’s defense allowed the first goal at 9:41 in the 1st period and the game-winner at 2:14 into overtime. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves with a 93.9% save percentage, while the defense added 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

• The Maple Leafs have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Their record vs the puck line in these matchups is less impressive at 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Toronto has a record of 7-3. Their record vs the puck line sits at 7-3 in these matchups, while posting a 3-7 over-under mark.

The Lightning Can Win If…

The Lightning dropped to 12-8-2 with a 7-4 loss to the Jets. Tampa Bay held a 2-0 lead early but couldn’t hold on, allowing four goals in the third period. The total was set at 6.5 goals, and the combined 11 goals easily surpassed that mark. The Lightning were underdogs on the puck line.

Four different players scored for the Lightning, but their defense struggled throughout the game. After leading 2-0, Tampa Bay gave up seven of the next nine goals. Their last lead was at 4-3 before the Jets scored four unanswered goals, including two empty-netters.

Tampa Bay’s offense put 30 shots on goal in their 7-4 loss to the Jets, with four different players finding the net. Brandon Hagel opened the scoring with his seventh goal of the season, while Brayden Point netted his eighth on a power play in the first period.

Mitchell Chaffee added his fourth goal in the second period, and Nikita Kucherov scored his 10th, unassisted, in the third. The Lightning recorded 8 giveaways in the game.

Defensively, the Lightning struggled late, giving up four goals in the 3rd period, including two empty-netters. After tying the game at 4-4, they allowed the go-ahead goal at the 7:38 mark. Goalie Jonas Johansson made 27 saves with an 84.4% save percentage.

• Over their last three games, the Lightning have gone 2-1 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an puck line mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 2-1 in those same games.
• The Lightning have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. Across these games, their puck line record was just 4-6, while posting an over-under record of 3-7.

The Lean

If you’re looking for a moneyline pick, my choice is the Lightning to take down the Maple Leafs at home. With the moneyline currently at +101, I’m placing my bet on the Lightning straight-up.

Our projections have the Lightning pulling out a win as the underdog. But if you’re not as bullish as we are on the Lightning, we’d recommend at least getting a bet down on them to cover the puck line.

With an over/under line sitting at 6.5 goals, we like this game to surpass that mark and recommend getting a bet down on the over.

NHL Picks & Predictions

Maple Leafs Prepare for Lightning Clash, Eye Redemption in Florida

The Toronto Maple Leafs will wrap up their Florida road trip on Saturday night with a high-stakes matchup against Atlantic Division rival Tampa Bay Lightning. After a humbling 5-1 loss to the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, Toronto seeks to regain momentum and split their Sunshine State swing.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Bouncing Back from a Setback

The Maple Leafs entered their game against the Panthers on a strong note, having earned points in eight of their last ten contests (7-2-1). However, Wednesday’s loss exposed key vulnerabilities. The Panthers dominated from the outset, outskating the Leafs and forcing numerous turnovers that kept Toronto on the back foot.

Head coach Craig Berube was particularly frustrated with his team’s special teams performance.

“We talked before the game and knew 5-on-5 would be tight, but special teams were the difference,” Berube remarked. “We gave up two power-play goals and a shorty. That was the difference in the game.”

Adding to their woes, forward Bobby McMann exited the game in the second period with an injury, leaving his status as day-to-day. Despite these setbacks, the Leafs will look to regroup and take inspiration from their earlier 5-2 victory over the Lightning in October.

Auston Matthews’ Anticipated Return

A major boost for Toronto could come in the form of Auston Matthews, who has been sidelined since November 3 with an upper-body injury. The three-time NHL goals champion confirmed Friday that he intends to return against Tampa Bay.

“In my mind, I’m back and excited to play tomorrow,” Matthews told reporters.

The 27-year-old’s presence is expected to bolster the Leafs’ offense, as Matthews has already tallied 11 points (five goals, six assists) in just 13 games this season. His return couldn’t come at a better time, as the team aims to reestablish its scoring rhythm.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Riding a Wave of Momentum

The Lightning enter Saturday’s contest on the heels of a dramatic 3-2 overtime win against the Nashville Predators. With the game tied late, star forward Nikita Kucherov returned from a brief injury absence to set up Brayden Point’s overtime game-winning goal—Point’s NHL-leading ninth power-play tally of the season.

“Pointer in tight. I don’t know if there’s anybody better,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said, praising Point’s finishing ability.

The victory also marked a milestone for Brandon Hagel, who scored his 100th career goal. Meanwhile, Victor Hedman recorded his 588th career assist, tying him with Lightning legend Martin St. Louis for the franchise record. Hedman, now in his first season as team captain, will look to break the record on home ice.

Key Matchup Dynamics

Saturday’s game pits two teams that know each other well, with recent playoff encounters still fresh in memory. The Leafs defeated the Lightning 5-2 in their previous meeting this season, showcasing their offensive firepower. However, Tampa Bay’s resilience and special teams prowess, including Point’s standout power-play contributions, could prove pivotal.

The Lightning hold a 5-2-1 record in their last eight games, showcasing consistency and adaptability. By contrast, the Maple Leafs must address their penalty troubles, which hampered their ability to mount a comeback against Florida.

Historical and Emotional Stakes

The game also carries historical and emotional significance. Toronto’s recent loss to Florida rekindled memories of their infamous “We want Florida!” playoff chants, highlighting the competitive tension that defines these Atlantic Division clashes. For Tampa Bay, Hedman’s pursuit of franchise history adds an extra layer of intrigue to the contest.

What to Watch For

• Auston Matthews’ Impact: How will his return influence the Leafs’ offense and power-play execution?
• Victor Hedman’s Record: Will Hedman surpass St. Louis as Tampa Bay’s all-time assist leader?
• Special Teams Battle: With both teams boasting dangerous power plays, discipline could decide the game.
• Goaltender Performances: Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz and Tampa Bay’s likely starter, Jonas Johansson, will play critical roles in keeping their teams in contention.

Conclusion

The Maple Leafs-Lightning showdown is poised to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams fighting to solidify their standings in the Atlantic Division. Toronto will aim to rebound from a tough loss and build on Matthews’ return, while Tampa Bay seeks to extend their momentum and celebrate a historic milestone for Victor Hedman. With high stakes and star power on both sides, this matchup promises excitement for fans and implications for the season’s playoff race.