Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez II Odds and Predictions

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On Saturday, December 7, Emanuel Navarrete will defend his WBO junior lightweight title in a rematch against Oscar Valdez live from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KOs) is a three-division world champion who won the first fight against Valdez (32-2, 24 KOs) in August 2023. Both men have competed since their first encounter.

Some critics argue that this rematch shouldn’t have taken place due to the result of the first fight last year. However, Valdez won the interim-WBO junior lightweight title this spring, which led the sanctioning body to demanding the rematch.

Currently, ESPN has Navarrete ranked as the #1 junior lightweight, while Valdez comes in at #4. So, even though there has been some grumbling over a rematch, this bout should still be a highly competitive one.

Let’s take a look at the latest Navarrete vs. Valdez boxing odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Navarrete vs. Valdez predictions.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez Preview

Check out the latest tale of the tape for Navarrete vs. Valdez:

The First Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez Fight

The first bout took place on August 12, 2023, in Glendale, Arizona. It was an entertaining firefight that ultimately ended up a lopsided victory for Emanuel Navarrete.

Navarrete won via unanimous decision with scores of 116-112, 118-110, and 119-109. What was even more impressive about the outcome was the discrepancy in punches thrown. Navarrete threw 1,038 punches which was more than double Valdez’s 436 punches thrown.

There moments of the fight where the champ would land up to six punches at a time to just one punch landed by the challenger. Valdez was getting hit from all sorts of angles and seemingly for the entire fight.

Despite the one-sided outcome, Valdez never shied away and kept marching forward. He was willing to engage in vicious exchanges with the hopes of landing one big, fight altering shot. Ultimately, the strategy backfired.

Additionally, Valdez’s right eye was swollen shut. In fact, it was a nasty result of his face being treated as a punching bag.

Emanuel Navarrete Recent Fights

Navarrete really kicked down the doors in the division when he upset Isaac Dogboe in December 2018. That was Dogboe’s first career loss and it also gave Navarrete his first world title. “Vaquero” would go on to beat Dogboe in a rematch six months later.

Following those wins, Navarette would tally four more victories in a row before moving up to featherweight. He defeated Ruben Villa via decision in October 2020, to become the WBO featherweight champion.

After three successful victories of that belt, Vaquero would move up another weight class and capture his third world title when he defeated Liam Wilson via 9^th round TKO in February 2023.

That victory ultimately led to the first match against Valdez. Following that bout, Navarrete would take on Robson Conceicao. That fight ended up as a Draw.

Vaquero would then move up to lightweight in May 2024, to battle Denys Berinchyk for the WBO lightweight title. Unfortunately, he lost via split decision. That was his first loss in 34 fights.

Emanuel Navarrete Odds

Navarrete opened as a -230 betting favorite in this rematch. Most online betting sites have him listed at a range of -250 to -280 for Saturday’s bout. In their first contest, Navarrete opened as the underdog of +176 odds. He closed at a range of +155 to +200, according to ProBoxingOdds.

Oscar Valdez Recent Fights

Oscar Valdez is a former two-time Olympian (2008, 2012) who captured his first world title in 2016. He would defend that title six times before moving up to junior lightweight. In February 2021, Valdez scored the biggest pro win of his career by knocking out Miguel Berchelt for the WBC title.

Valdez would defend the belt seven months later and beat Robson Conceicao via decision. That’s the same fighter who took Navarrete to a draw a year ago.

The victory set up Valdez to take on Shakur Stevenson where the WBO and WBC titles were on the line. Unfortunately, Stevenson would win via unanimous decision. That was the first loss of Valdez’s pro career.

The second loss came against Navarrete in their August 2023 bout. Sandwiched between those two losses was a decision win over Adam Lopez, which was a “get right” fight.

Following the Navarrete fight, Valdez would defeat Liam Wilson for the interim WBO title and also score a rematch against his fellow countryman.

Valdez made the following comments about this rematch:

“I’m thrilled to have the opportunity to fight for the WBO world title against a great fighter like ‘Vaquero’ Navarrete. Although we lost the first fight, we stayed disciplined and focused on returning stronger. I know it’s a tough challenge, but not impossible. With that in mind, we returned to the gym and studied what we did wrong in the first fight to avoid making the same mistakes. I’m excited and confident that we will be victorious this time.”

Oscar Valdez Odds

Valdez opened as a -230 favorite in the first fight between these two. He closed at a range of -180 to -240 odds. This time around, Valdez opened as the +180 underdog and currently sits at a range of +200 to +220 odds. This is the first time he’s opened as the underdog since fighting Shakur Stevenson in April 2022.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez Predictions

I really don’t see how this fight doesn’t end in the same manner as the first one. Navarrete is the bigger man with a six-inch reach advantage. Additionally, he throws far more punches than most of his opponents do. As mentioned above, he threw nearly 600 more punches than Valdez in their first encounter.

This rematch will have similar results. I fully expect Navarrete to be aggressive and get back to what he does best – swarming his opponent with a massive volume of punches.

Valdez might close the gap on the scorecards compared to the first bout, but he’s not going to win this fight.

Take Navarrete to successfully defend his world title. We’ll get into the method of victory, Over/Under and other prop bets for this fight in the sections below.

Bet: Emanuel Navarrete (-280)

The Best Navarrete vs. Valdez Prop Bets

The following Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Over/Under 10.5 rounds

• Over 10.5 (-275)
• Under 10.5 (+200)

The first bout went the full 12 rounds. So, I expect this contest to go Over the 10.5 round mark. Navarrete’s last three fights eclipsed the 10.5 round mark. For Valdez, four of his last five bouts went over this mark as well. I’m actually surprised that the Over odds are this low.

Bet: Over 10. 5 rounds (-275)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (-200)
• No (+150)

Their first bout ended via the distance. In fact, Navarrete has gone the distance in three consecutive fights. Valdez has gone the distance in four of his last five bouts.

In their four combined career losses, neither man suffered a KO loss. All four of those losses were via decisions. I see this bout going the distance.

Bet: Yes (-200)

Method of Victory

• Navarrete via TKO/KO/DQ (+240)
• Navarrete via decision (+110)
• Valdez via TKO/KO/DQ (+700)
• Valdez via decision (+400)
• Draw (+1400)

Based on the predictions above, this fight is going the distance. So, that leaves us with a decision win by either man or a Draw. Based on Navarrete’s volume of punches thrown, I can’t see this contest ending in a Draw. These two men are willing to stand and strike. There will be no running, which means lots of punches landing.

I have Navarrete winning this rematch as it’s a favorable matchup for the champ. Take Vaquero to win via decision for the second time between these two men.

Bet: Navarrete via decision (+110)

Betting on Rounds

• Either Fighter wins in rounds 1-3 (+1800)
• Either Fighter wins in rounds 4-6 (+750)
• Either Fighter wins in rounds 7-9 (+500)
• Either Fighter wins in rounds 10-12 (+600)
• Fight Goes The Distance (-200)

Based on the boxing prop bets above, I like for this world title bout to go the full 12 rounds. It should be a compelling fight even if Navarrete appears to be the better man between the two.

If you want to take a risk, then pick the option for either fighter to win in rounds 10-12. There will not be an early stoppage, but there’s a minuscule chance that Valdez could get stopped in the championship rounds.

Bet: Fight Goes The Distance (-200)