Boise State Broncos vs Unlv Rebels Picks and Predictions December 6th 2024

Boise State Broncos vs UNLV Rebels December 6th 2024

Boise State is favored at -4 as they host the UNLV Rebels in a week 15 college football matchup. The game is set for Friday, December 6th, with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 ET at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. The over/under line is currently at 58.5 points. The Rebels come in with a 10-2 record, while the Broncos are 11-1 on the season. FOX will be handling the broadcast of this one.

UNLV vs. Boise State Key Information

UNLV heads into Week 15 with a 10-2 record and a 100% chance of bowl eligibility. They have a 31.5% chance of winning the Mountain West and rank 13th in the nation with a 27.5% chance of making the playoff. The Rebels are 6-0 on the road and 4-1 at home this season.

UNLV has been favored in seven of their 12 games, going 7-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +16.7 points per game, and they have a 6-4 record against the spread this season.

The over/under line for this week is 58.5 points. UNLV’s games have averaged 60.7 points, with an average line of 57.3 points. They are 4-6 against the over/under this season, with four games having higher lines than this week’s total.

UNLV’s offense has been driven by their ground game, ranking third in the nation with 259.2 rushing yards per game, while averaging 44.3 rushing attempts per game, the fifth most in college football. They are seventh in scoring, with 38.7 points per game, and are ranked 46th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 15.

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Jai’Den Thomas leads the rushing attack with 833 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored seven touchdowns. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has thrown for 1,735 yards, with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109. Ricky White III has caught 75 passes for 1,020 yards and 11 touchdowns.

UNLV’s defense has been strong against the run this season, allowing just 101.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 15th nationally. In their recent game against Nevada, they gave up only 67 rushing yards on 28 attempts. The secondary has allowed 248.2 passing yards per game, but they’ve held opposing quarterbacks to a 54.8% completion rate, the 16th-lowest in the country.

Against Nevada, UNLV’s defense allowed 14 points, while giving up 359 total yards, including 292 passing yards. They also forced an interception in the game. On average, UNLV has allowed 22 points per game this season, which ranks 31st nationally.

Boise State enters Week 15 with an 11-1 record, and they are ranked 27th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 68.5% chance of winning the Mountain West. Nationally, they have the 8th best odds of making the playoff at 68.6%.

The Broncos have been favored in 10 of their 12 games this season, going 10-0 as the favorite. They are 5-0 at home and 5-1 on the road, with an average scoring margin of +17.4 points per game. Against the spread, Boise State is 6-4-1 overall.

This week’s over/under line is set at 58.5 points. Boise State’s games have averaged 63.8 points, with an average over/under line of 60.6 points. Their over/under record for the season is 6-5.

Boise State’s offense has been dominant on the ground, ranking 4th nationally with 255.5 rushing yards per game. Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 2,288 yards, scoring 28 touchdowns while averaging 7 yards per carry. The Broncos are 3rd in scoring, putting up 40.6 points per game, and they rank 6th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 15.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 2,556 yards, with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 102. Boise State is 7th in third-down conversions, converting 49.4% of their attempts. Cameron Camper leads the receiving corps with 811 yards and four touchdowns.

Boise State’s defense is ranked 38th nationally, allowing 23.2 points per game. They’ve been strong against the run, giving up just 107.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 21st in the country. In their most recent game, they allowed 119 rushing yards on 19 attempts and 226 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 258.2 passing yards per game against Boise State, completing 62.5% of their passes. The defense has faced the 83rd most pass attempts nationally and has allowed a passer rating of 98, ranking 134th in the country.

UNLV comes into this game as the -4 point spread favorite over Boise State. We are predicting a 27-26 win for the Rebels, so we recommend taking UNLV to cover the spread.

For the over/under, with the line set at 58.5 points, our projection of 53 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play.

Ashton Jeanty, No. 10 Boise State Expect Challenge from No. 20 UNLV

The Mountain West title game on Friday night in Boise brings together two teams with championship aspirations and playoff implications. No. 10 Boise State and No. 20 UNLV clash for the second time this season, with stakes even higher than before: a conference championship and a likely College Football Playoff berth for the winner.

Boise State’s Dominance and Jeanty’s Heisman Case

Boise State (11-1) enters the game on a 10-game winning streak, its longest in a season since 2010. Central to the Broncos’ success is running back Ashton Jeanty, a record-breaking force who has carried Boise State into contention for both the Mountain West crown and the national playoff.

Jeanty leads the nation with 2,288 rushing yards and 28 touchdowns, numbers that rank him among the greatest single-season performances in FBS history. Jeanty has also been a model of consistency, rushing for at least 125 yards in every game this season, with five games surpassing 200 yards.

“Ashton Jeanty is the best football player in the country,” Broncos coach Spencer Danielson declared. “If you’re one of the best players in the country, you play in the championship game.”

Jeanty was effective but contained in Boise State’s earlier 29-24 win over UNLV this season, posting 128 yards and one touchdown on 33 carries for a 3.9-yard average. The Rebels remain the only team to hold him under 4 yards per carry, a point of pride for UNLV coach Barry Odom.

“I think he’s the best player in college football,” Odom said. “He runs so hard, he can outrun you, he finishes going forward. All the great traits you want to see in a running back, unless you’re trying to tackle him.”

UNLV’s Firepower and Road Success

UNLV (10-2) has thrived under Odom, setting a school record with eight consecutive road wins. The Rebels are a balanced, high-scoring team, averaging 38.7 points per game behind an explosive offense led by receiver Ricky White III and linebacker Jackson Woodard.

White has been a game-changer, hauling in 75 receptions for 1,020 yards and 11 touchdowns while also leading the nation with four blocked punts. Woodard, named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, has been a menace with 114 tackles, four interceptions, and 17 tackles for loss.

Despite their firepower, the Rebels are hungry for redemption after their close October loss to Boise State and a 44-20 defeat in last year’s Mountain West title game.

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“I think they have some of the best players around,” Danielson said. “They’re very motivated and driven to win this game, just like us.”

What’s at Stake

Both teams are eyeing a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff field. A win likely secures Boise State a first-round bye, while a victory for UNLV would vault the Rebels into contention and knock the Broncos out of the top four.

The stakes are enormous for Boise State’s Jeanty, too, as he continues to build his case for the Heisman Trophy. Colorado’s Travis Hunter is considered the favorite, but Danielson is vocal about Jeanty’s credentials.

“For me, if you’re one of the best players in the country, you play in the championship game,” Danielson said, emphasizing the distinction between his star running back and others who won’t see postseason action.

The Matchup

Both teams boast explosive offenses and physical defenses. Boise State averages 40.6 points per game, slightly outpacing UNLV’s 38.7. The Rebels’ defense will need to replicate its earlier success in limiting Jeanty’s production, while the Broncos will aim to neutralize White’s game-breaking potential.

With playoff hopes, championship pride, and individual accolades on the line, this Mountain West showdown promises high drama and fierce competition.