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Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions December 7th 2024
With a 12-0 record on the season, the Oregon Ducks are the -3.5 point favorites over the Penn State Nittany Lions in this week 15 matchup. The game is set for 8:00 ET on Saturday, December 7th, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. CBS is handling the television broadcast, and the over/under line is currently 49.5 points. Penn State comes in with an 11-1 record for the season.
Penn State vs. Oregon Key Information
- Teams: Nittany Lions at Ducks
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis
- Date: Saturday, December 7th
- Betting Odds ORE -179 | PENNST +148 O/U 49.5
The Nittany Lions Can Win If…
Penn State heads into Week 15 with an 11-1 record, ranked 9th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 54% chance of winning the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions also have a 99.7% chance of making the playoff, according to our projections.
Penn State is 10-0 as the favorite this season and 0-1 as the underdog. Their average scoring margin is +19.3 points per game, and they are 6-5 against the spread. On the road, they are 3-1 ATS, while at home, they are 3-4.
The over/under line for this week is 49.5 points. Penn State’s average over/under line this season is 49.7 points, and their over/under record is 4-7, with their games averaging 47.3 points.
Heading into week 15, Penn State’s offense is ranked 27th in points per game, averaging 33.3. However, they are 9th in our offensive power rankings. Drew Allar has thrown for 2,668 yards, with a passer rating of 114, leading the Nittany Lions to the 6th best passer rating in the country. They are 4th in completion percentage, completing 71.7% of their passes, and converting 47.2% of their third downs.
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Allar has 18 touchdown passes and five interceptions this season. Nicholas Singleton leads the rushing attack with 733 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored seven touchdowns. Penn State is 27th in rushing yards per game, averaging 195.8. Harrison Wallace III has 579 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Penn State’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking 6th nationally by allowing just 14 points per game. They’ve also given up only 99.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 12th, and 169.8 passing yards, placing them 13th in the country.
In their recent game against Maryland, Penn State’s defense allowed just 7 points and 194 total yards, including 72 rushing yards on 31 attempts. They also forced three interceptions in the game.
- Penn State will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 3-0.
- Penn State has put together a record of 9-1 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 4-6.
The Ducks Can Win If…
At 12-0, Oregon is a lock for bowl eligibility and holds a 46% chance of winning the Big Ten. They are ranked 6th in our power rankings and have a 100% chance of making the playoff. The Ducks also have the 4th best odds to reach the national championship game at 21.4% and the 5th best odds to win it all at 8.6%.
Oregon has gone 6-0 at home and 5-0 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in 10 of their 12 games, going 10-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +19 points per game, and they are 6-5 against the spread.
The Ducks’ over/under record is 5-6, with their games averaging 51.3 points. Their average over/under line is 53.5 points, and this week’s line is set at 49.5 points.
Oregon’s offense is ranked 3rd in our power rankings heading into week 15, and they are 18th in points per game, scoring 35.2. Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 3,275 yards and has a passer rating of 114. Oregon is 14th in passing yards per game, averaging 277.6, and they are 8th in third-down conversions, converting 49.3% of their attempts.
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Gabriel has completed 73.5% of his passes, and Oregon leads the nation in completion percentage at 74.0%. Gabriel has thrown 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jordan James leads the rushing attack with 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns. Oregon is 55th in rushing yards per game, averaging 172.6. Tez Johnson leads the receivers with 685 yards and nine touchdowns on 67 catches.
Oregon’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 8th nationally by allowing just 16.2 points per game. They also rank 15th in passing yards allowed, giving up only 171.5 yards per game, and 30th in rushing yards, allowing 114 yards per game.
In their recent game against Washington, Oregon’s defense allowed 21 points but gave up just 43 rushing yards on 37 attempts. Washington threw for 201 yards on 17 completions.
- Through their last three games, the Oregon Ducks have a record of 3-0. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
- The Oregon Ducks have gone 10-0 over their last ten regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 3-7.
The Lean
Our projections have the Oregon Ducks winning this week 15 matchup against Penn State by a score of 23-20. However, with Penn State coming in as +3.5 point underdogs, we like their chances to cover the spread.
For the over/under, with the line set at 49.5 points, our model is suggesting that the under is the best play, with a combined score of 43 points.
No. 1 Oregon, No. 3 Penn State Set for Big Ten Championship Showdown
A heavyweight clash awaits in Indianapolis on Saturday night as No. 1 Oregon takes on No. 3 Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. Both teams are vying for a conference title, a first-round bye in the expanded College Football Playoff, and ultimate bragging rights in a season where expectations have been sky-high.
Oregon’s Road to Perfection
The Ducks (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) enter the title game undefeated, having solidified their place as the nation’s top team after a thrilling one-point victory over then-No. 2 Ohio State in October. This marks Oregon’s first Big Ten title game appearance after joining the conference, and they’re determined to make it a memorable one.
Head coach Dan Lanning has guided the Ducks to dominance on both sides of the ball, with an offense that averages 39.2 points per game and a defense ranked ninth nationally, allowing just 16.2 points per contest. Oregon’s last trip to a conference championship game ended in heartbreak, a 34-31 loss to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship last season. The Ducks are laser-focused on avoiding a repeat.
“It’s a privilege to play in a game like this,” Lanning said. “Our guys have worked all season for this moment. Penn State is a tough, physical team, and we know this will be a battle.”
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, has been the catalyst for Oregon’s success. Gabriel’s 73.5% completion rate ranks second in the nation, and he has accounted for 31 total touchdowns. He’ll be supported by star running back Jordan James (1,166 yards, 13 TDs) and dynamic wide receiver Tez Johnson (nine TD receptions).
Penn State’s Resilience
The Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) took a more winding path to Indianapolis. After a narrow 20-13 loss to Ohio State in November, Penn State needed help to secure its spot in the title game. That came when Michigan stunned Ohio State in the regular-season finale, setting the stage for Penn State’s second Big Ten Championship appearance and first since winning the title in 2016.
Head coach James Franklin has faced scrutiny for his record in marquee matchups, but a win over top-ranked Oregon would go a long way in silencing critics.
“This is why you play the game, for opportunities like this,” Franklin said. “We’ve worked hard to get here, and we understand the challenge ahead. Oregon is the No. 1 team for a reason, but we’re confident in what we bring to the table.”
Penn State’s strength lies in its elite defense, which ranks sixth nationally in scoring defense (14.0 points per game) and fourth in total defense (266.8 yards per game). Tight end Tyler Warren has been the offense’s centerpiece, setting a Big Ten record for receptions by a tight end in a season (81) and becoming a key red-zone weapon.
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Key Matchups
- Dillon Gabriel vs. Penn State’s Defense: Gabriel has torched defenses all season, but Penn State’s physical, disciplined secondary presents a tough challenge.
- Tyler Warren vs. Oregon’s Linebackers: Lanning has emphasized the need to neutralize Warren, whose versatility makes him a matchup nightmare.
- Special Teams Play: Oregon’s Tez Johnson and Penn State’s punter Riley Thompson have been game-changers all season. A key special teams moment could swing momentum.
What’s at Stake
For Oregon, a win would cap a perfect regular season and secure the top seed in the CFP. For Penn State, it’s a chance to claim its first Big Ten title since 2016 and solidify its place as a national contender.
With both teams boasting elite defenses and star-studded offenses, this Big Ten Championship promises to be a classic. The winner not only takes home the conference crown but also takes a giant step toward college football immortality.
