Conor McGregor vs. Logan Paul Odds and Predictions

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On Tuesday, December 17, Conor McGregor made shockwaves throughout the sports landscape with the announcement that he’s in preliminary agreements to face Logan Paul in an exhibition boxing match.

At face value, it’s hard to take seriously any of McGregor’s social media posts. Simply put, “Notorious” has notoriously made a number of proclamations that have never come true. However, this declaration might not be one of those instances as corroborating evidence is slowly trickling out in support of McGregor’s claims.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest information on McGregor vs. Paul, opening odds from sports betting sites, and make some early predictions on this potential Paul vs. McGregor fight.

Are We Sure McGregor Didn’t Mean Jake Paul?

Once we got past the point of realizing that McGregor’s comments had some validity to them, the next question surrounded whether or not McGregor actually meant Jake Paul instead of his brother Logan Paul.

The younger Paul brother was recently involved in a big Netflix fight versus Mike Tyson. The result of that bout brought a great deal of criticism and speculations that it was fixed.

All evidence is pointing towards Logan Paul being McGregor’s opponent and not Jake. Logan acknowledged McGregor’s comments with a repost on social media and an eyeballs emoji. This small act furthered to fuel the fire of an exhibition boxing match actually taking place.

However, as of this writing, that’s not the only evidence supporting the possibility of this fight actually taking place.

Would The UFC Allow McGregor To Fight Paul?

Although it’s been a few years since McGregor last fought inside the octagon, the former UFC champion is still under contract with the promotion. And, you have to think that UFC President Dana White would be in full support over this boxing fight as long as the company got a piece of the pie.

Keep in mind, the UFC was heavily involved in the construction and promotion of McGregor’s 2017 fight versus Floyd Mayweather Jr. The bout was a massive success for PPV and the bank accounts of both boxers.

But that’s not all.

Following UFC Tampa, on December 14, White told the media in a post-fight presser that he was working on something that people wouldn’t see coming and would drive everyone crazy. In fact, White specified that things literally started to come together the night before.

So, now we have White stating there’s something big in the works that he will be a part of. And he alluded to it being something that people wouldn’t be expecting. Nobody was expecting a potential McGregor vs. Paul fight. Yet, just three days later, McGregor made his comments about fighting in India against Paul.

But, there’s more.

Do you know who the official sports drink of the UFC is?

Logan Paul’s Prime sports drink is the official sports drink of the world’s top MMA promotion as they signed a deal with the UFC in January 2023.

To recap:

• Dana White alludes to something big coming in 2025.
• Conor McGregor states that he’s in preliminary agreements to fight Paul in India.
• Logan Paul reposts McGregor’s comments.
• Paul’s sports drink is an official partner of the UFC.
• The UFC and Dana White were heavily involved in the McGregor vs. Mayweather fight of 2017.
• ESPN is already covering McGregor’s announcement.

On a side note, it’s pretty funny that McGregor, White and the UFC are possibly releasing all of this information the week of one of the biggest fights in boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk 2. We’ll save the conspiracy theories for another day.

With that said, there are a lot of dots that we can connect to believe that this showdown between Conor McGregor and Logan Paul will take place. So, let’s dive into the potential matchup and make our predictions on the outcome.

Conor McGregor vs. Logan Paul Preview

The tale of the tape for Conor McGregor vs. Logan Paul:

Based on the speculated fight, Logan Paul opened as the slight favorite with a -150 moneyline. Conor McGregor opened as a slight +120 underdog. It will be interesting to see how these odds evolve as more information comes out.

Conor McGregor Recent Fights

McGregor hasn’t competed in a combat sporting event since July 2021, where he lost to Dustin Poirier for a second time that year. Their first bout came in January 2021, and McGregor lost via TKO in the second round. It was the first KO loss of his MMA career.

As soon as McGregor’s six-month medical suspension was up, the UFC booked another bout between Poirier and McGregor. This time, their third overall encounter, ended with a first round TKO as McGregor ended up breaking his lower tibia after rolling his ankle during the fight. The cage-side doctor stopped the bout.

Two years later, in the summer of 2023, McGregor coached a season of The Ultimate Fighter. This time, he squared off against Michael Chandler on TUF 31. The two were supposed to compete against each other at UFC 303 in June 2024.

Unfortunately, that bout didn’t come to fruition as McGregor broke a toe and had to withdraw from the contest. So, the UFC cancelled this potential matchup. For three years now, Dana White has looked foolish talking about McGregor’s next bout.

At this point of his fighting career, the 36-year-old Irishman appears to be done with MMA. He can make far more money outside of MMA which we have seen in his other business ventures. A bout versus Logan Paul could also pay him far more than a UFC fight.

And, you have to think that at this point in time, White and the UFC would love to get anything in return for McGregor’s contract.

McGregor’s lone boxing match was against Floyd Mayweather in 2017. He ended up losing via 10^th round TKO but did fare well in the early portions of the bout. At the time of the TKO, Mayweather was ahead on the scorecards: 87-83, 89-82, 89-81.

By time the PPV revenues were factored in, McGregor reportedly came away earning $130 million dollars for that fight. If he can get 25% of that by fighting Logan Paul, McGregor would jump at the opportunity.

Logan Paul Recent Fights

Following a massively successful YouTube career, the Paul Brothers decided that they wanted to get into boxing and would hold their own fights against fellow influencers.

Of the two, Jake Paul has been far more successful in a boxing ring and is the better boxer. Yet, Logan has shown some potential as well.

The older brother took on KSI in two bouts. The first came in 2018 as an exhibition. The fight ended in a majority draw. Their rematch came over a year later, but this time it was sanctioned as an official boxing fight. KSI would win that bout via split decision.

The loss didn’t deter Paul as he would end up battling Mayweather in an exhibition fight on June 6, 2021. Unfortunately, this bout was a hug fest as Paul was seen clinching Mayweather for long stretches of the fight that ultimately went the distance and was met with many boos.

After the fight, Mayweather proclaimed that if it was a real bout, he would’ve won in the first round. Paul also publicly questioned the possibility that Mayweather let him survive.

Two years later, Paul would return to the boxing ring in an exhibition bout against MMA competitor Dillon Danis. The latter has been very outspoken against the Paul brothers and really blasted Logan Paul in the build-up to their fight.

The bout ended with Danis attempting a takedown in the sixth round and was disqualified. Some sources claim that this was an official fight sanctioned in the UK. After watching, you be the judge as to how real it was.

Despite Logan Paul’s lack of boxing skills, especially compared to his brother Jake, he did impress many critics and fans when joining the WWE. In fact, he ended up winning the WWE US Championship in 2023. Paul has a bright future in the WWE should he stick with it.

McGregor vs. Paul Predictions

I must restate that this bout is still in preliminary negotiations. Although there’s some evidence to support the potential matchup, don’t get your hopes up until an official contract has been signed.

With that said, let’s break down the possibilities of this fight.

Paul is the bigger athlete with a five-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He’s also seven years younger than McGregor. However, the latter is battle tested and far more experienced in a fight.

After watching Paul in his fights against KSI, Mayweather and Danis, I just don’t see someone highly skilled in boxing. His younger brother looks far more advanced inside the ring. Maybe one day we’ll see the two fight each other.

As long as McGregor doesn’t suffer a freak accident or injury before or during the fight, I think that he would win the boxing exhibition and then call out a rematch with Mayweather.

McGregor is the better striker between the two and looked far better against Mayweather than Paul did. I believe Conor is quicker, more coordinated, and would land more punches than Paul would.

I’m taking McGregor to win in this hypothetical, unofficial boxing exhibition.

Bet: Conor McGregor (+120)