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While many football fans are gearing up for the 2024-25 FBS College Football Championship, true hardcore fans and bettors are also dialed into the 2024-25 FCS Championship. Four teams remain and will play in this weekend’s Semifinals. Scores & Stats College Football experts have kept a watchful eye on the FCS all season long. Now, they offer their take on the FCS Semifinals and Championship.
The FCS has been involved in a playoff since 1978. With the exception of the 2020 COVID season, the FCS Playoffs have involved 24 teams since 2013. Ten FCS Conference Champions automatically qualify and a selection committee picks 14 at-large teams.
For the past several seasons, teams from the Dakotas have dominated the FCS championship. South Dakota State (12-2), which plays at rival North Dakota State (12-2) on Saturday, has won back-to-back National Titles. The Jackrabbits are led by reigning Walter Payton Award (the FCS equivalent of the Heisman Trophy) winner QB Mark Gronowski.
South Dakota (11-2) will take on No. 1-ranked Montana State (14-0) in the other FCS semifinal on Saturday. The winners of the semifinals will meet for the FCS national championship on Jan. 6, 2025, at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. What follows is our own experts’ takes on the FCS playoffs. Don’t forget to also follow the Scores & Stats experts for the best 2024-25 College Football Playoffs odds and predictions.
You will also not want to miss the College Football Bowl season. It’s the best time of the year for NCAAF fans and you can stay up to date with all of the latest betting information for the entire 2024-25 college football bowl game schedule. Our experts break down each game, providing odds and previews for each matchup. Now, let’s get to this weekend’s FCS semifinals odds, previews, and predictions.
2024-25 FCS Championship Odds
Keep an eye on the latest College Football Odds and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Montana State Bobcats | +140 |
| South Dakota State Jackrabbits | +165 |
| North Dakota State Bison | +400 |
| South Dakota Coyotes | +1000 |
It’s no surprise that Montana State is the overall favorite to capture the FCS championship. The Bobcats were the favorite to win the Big Sky Conference, which they did. Montana State opened the season by beating FBS New Mexico 35-31. The Bobcats closest game the rest of the season was against UC-Davis (30-28), another Big Sky team that was the No. 5 seed in the FCS playoffs.
The Bobcats also avoid two-time defending FCS champ South Dakota State and nine-time FCS champion North Dakota State. Montana State gets South Dakota, which has the longest odds to win it all at +1000, in the semifinals.
The Jackrabbits, as mentioned, won the last two straight FCS titles. South Dakota State shared the Missouri Valley Conference title with North Dakota State and South Dakota. The semifinal matchup between SDSU and NDSU will be a rematch of the regular season game won by the Bison 13-9 back on October 19.
South Dakota State and North Dakota State have been here before and, more recently, Montana State has made a splash as well. South Dakota made the quarterfinals last year but went 3-8 in 2022. We’ve already mentioned the Jackrabbits two straight titles in 2022 and 2023. In the ‘22 final, SDSU beat North Dakota State for the championship. In the semifinal that year, the Jackrabbits beat Montana State.
2024-25 FCS Semifinal Predictions
Let’s take a look at the featured FCS College Football games and make our spread, total, and moneyline NCAAF picks for each game.
South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State Jackrabbits | -130 | -1.5 (-110) | O 47.5 (-110) |
| North Dakota State Bison | +110 | +1.5 (-110) | U 47.5 (-110) |
These two rivals play annually for the Dakota Marker, a trophy which represents the split of the Dakota Territory back in the late 1800s. This season’s game was a defensive battle won by the Bison, 13-9. NDSU now has a 64-47-5 lead all-time in the series between the two teams. Prior to this season, the Jackrabbits had won the previous five meetings. One of those was for the 2023 national championship.
Both teams shared part of the Missouri Valley Conference title. Both teams received first-round byes in the playoffs. SDSU beat Montana and Incarnate Word in its two games to advance to the semifinals. The Jackrabbits won those two games by an average of 29 points.
The Bison actually lost their final regular season game to South Dakota, then got off to a horrible start in their second round playoff game against Abilene Christian. In true Bison fashion, they fell behind 17-3 early in the second quarter after an ACU field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, Jackson Williams went 100 yards for the score. NDSU went on to win 51-31. The Bison beat Mercer 31-7 last week.
South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State Predictions
These two programs have long histories of success. What’s interesting is that both schools have hired new coaches in the last two years. Jimmy Rogers is in his second year with the Jackrabbits. He won a national title last year after taking over for the legendary John Stiegelmeier who retired after winning a championship in 2022.
Both offenses are outstanding. The Bison average 39.8 points per game and they’ve eclipsed 40 in four of their past six games. South Dakota State averages 37.2 points a game led by Gronowski who could win a second straight Walter Payton Award in January.
The difference in this game just might be the defense. That was the case in the regular season meeting between the two rivals. The two teams combined for just 22 points. NDSU got the win 13-9 on a Cam Miller touchdown pass with just 1:49 left in the game. South Dakota State ran for 215 yards but threw a costly interception and went 8-for-17 on third down.
The Bison have a ridiculous record in the FCS playoffs – 49-5. At home, it’s even crazier. North Dakota State is 37-1 in FCS playoff games in the FargoDome. The only loss came in the 2016 national semifinals. It was to James Madison, which went on to win the national championship. It’s hard to bet against Gronowski, but it’s even harder to bet against a nine-time national champion that is catching points at home.
South Dakota vs. Montana State Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota Coyotes | +245 | +8 (-110) | O 56.5 (-112) |
| Montana State Bobcats | -305 | -8 (-110) | U 56.5 (-108) |
The Bobcats were expected to be here. South Dakota Coyotes were not. The Bobcats ran through the Big Sky schedule behind QB Tommy Mellott and FCS’s No. 1 scoring offense (42.1 ppg). Montana State is the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and received a first-round bye. The Bobcats beat UT-Martin 49-17 in the second round and advanced to the semifinals with a 52-19 win over Idaho last week.
The Coyotes lost early in the season to FBS Wisconsin 27-13. They lost just one Missouri Valley Conference game to rival South Dakota State 20-17. South Dakota then pulled off a stunning upset of North Dakota State in the regular season finale to earn a share of the conference title.
With that conference title came a first-round playoff bye. The Coyotes took care of Tarleton State (42-31) and UC-Davis (35-21) to advance to the semifinals. South Dakota has one of the top rushing offenses in FCS, averaging over 222 yards per game. Montana State is No. 2 in FCS in rushing at 307 yards per game.
Interestingly, all four teams in the semifinals are ranked in the top five in scoring offense. Montana State is No. 1 (42.1). North Dakota State is second (39.1). South Dakota State scores 37.8 points per game (fourth) and South Dakota is fifth scoring 37.2 per game.
South Dakota vs. Montana State Predictions
Beating the No. 1 seed on its home field is going to be a huge task for South Dakota. The Coyotes have averaged almost 40 points a game since their loss to South Dakota State. The Coyotes are also fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding teams to 16.6 points per game. Stopping Montana State will be a chore.
The Bobcats have the best offense in the nation. It starts with a running game that averages 307.1 yards per game. QB Tommy Mellott has 2,454 passing yards and 28 TDs and he’s rushed for 790 yards and 12 more scores. Montana State also has not one, but two 1,000-yard rushers – Scottre Humphrey (1,325, 14 TDs) and Adam Jones (1,048, 14 TDs).
Montana State just has too many weapons. The Bobcats have dominated their playoff opponents, averaging 50.5 points a game and winning by an average margin of 32.5 points. South Dakota’s only chance of pulling the upset revolves around its own running game. Like the Bobcats, the Coyotes also have two 1,000-yard rushers in Charles Pierre Jr. (1,188, 15 TDs) and Travis Theis (1,062, 18 TDs). That seems highly unlikely as Montana State gets the benefit of playing at home.
The line on this game opened at Montana State -8.5 and it’s down to -8 now. That could be an indication of things to come. Plus, the line now sits right on a key number. For a playoff game, the number seems kind of large. For the Coyotes to cover, their run defense is going to have to come through. South Dakota ranks 10th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 107.9 yards per game.
2024-25 FCS Championship Prediction
These are four of the best FCS programs in the country. Three of the four teams have been to the FCS semifinals and/or championship game at least once over the last decade. South Dakota has been on the cusp of perennial playoff berths for the past several years. This year marks the Coyotes fourth playoff appearance since 2017.
Of course, South Dakota is given the longest odds at +1000 to win the title. It will be very difficult to go to Bozeman and beat the No. 1-ranked Bobcats on their home field. Montana State, the favorite to win it all, is 15-1 at home since the start of last season. The only loss came in last year’s playoffs. In the second round, Montana State lost 35-34 in overtime to North Dakota State.
Speaking of North Dakota State, the Bison are legendary in FCS football. Since 2011, NDSU has won nine FCS championships and they lost in the 2022 title game to South Dakota State. That’s 10 trips to the final in the last 13 seasons.
South Dakota State has been to three of the last four FCS title games and the Jackrabbits have won the last two. Gronowski is experienced and leads a very good SDSU offense and the defense is also one of the best in the country.
With North Dakota State’s success at home (37-1 in FCS playoff games), it’s hard to bet against the Bison. They’ve lost just one home playoff game ever and the Bison have already beaten South Dakota State once this season. At +400, you get an outstanding price on a team that has won nine of the last 14 FCS national championships. One of those titles came against Montana State in 2021. The Bison won handily 38-10.
All four of these teams are built similarly. Their offenses are built around a strong running game. The defenses are stout against the run and can bend at times, but they don’t break. All four are well-coached and, with the exception of South Dakota, have been heavy hitters in the FCS for the better part of the last decade.
If it comes down to one thing, our Scores & Stats team likes the team with the best quarterback. While Gronowski is the reigning Payton Award winner, the best of the bunch is North Dakota State’s Cam Miller (2,873 yds, 28 TDs, 4 INTs), a three-year starter. Miller has the highest QB grade according to Pro Football Focus and we like him to lead North Dakota State to its 10th national championship.
FCS National Championship Bet: North Dakota State +400
