Penn State Nittany Lions vs Smu Mustangs Picks and Predictions December 21st 2024

Penn State Nittany Lions vs SMU Mustangs December 21st 2024

With kickoff set for 12:00 ET, the Penn State Nittany Lions and SMU Mustangs are both entering this game with an 11-2 record. SMU is the underdog on the road vs. Penn State in this one. The over/under line is currently sitting at 53.5 points for this College Football Playoff first-round matchup. TNT is handling the TV broadcast from Beaver Stadium in University Park. The money line odds have Penn State at -330 and SMU at +257.

SMU vs. Penn State Key Information

SMU enters Week 1 against Penn State with an 11-2 record, going 4-0 on the road and 5-2 at home. They’ve been favored in nine of their 13 games, posting a 7-2 record as the favorite.

The Mustangs have a +17.7 average scoring margin and are 7-4 against the spread this season. They’ve covered the spread in three of four road games and are 5-4 ATS as the favorite.

SMU’s over/under record stands at 6-5, with their games averaging 59.4 points. Their average over/under line is 54.2 points, slightly above this week’s line of 53.5 points.

SMU’s offense ranks 6th in points per game, scoring 38.5, and they are 22nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 3,050 yards, completing 66% of his passes, with 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His passer rating is 105.

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SMU is 15th in passing yards per game, averaging 267, and they are 17th in rushing attempts, gaining 181.1 yards per game on the ground. Brashard Smith leads the rushing attack with 1,267 yards and 14 touchdowns. On third downs, SMU converts 46.5% of their attempts.

SMU’s defense has been strong against the run this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 94.5 rushing yards per game. In their recent game against Clemson, they gave up only 64 rushing yards on 32 attempts. However, the secondary allowed 262 passing yards and four touchdowns, contributing to the 34 points they surrendered in the 34-31 loss.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 55.6% of their passes against SMU, with a passer rating of 77.1. On average, SMU’s defense has faced 35.8 pass attempts per game, ranking 113th in the country, and they have given up 232.7 passing yards per game.

Penn State comes into their Week 14 matchup against SMU with an 11-2 record, going 6-1 at home and 4-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in 10 of their 13 games, going 10-0 as the favorite. However, they are 0-2 as the underdog this season.

The Nittany Lions have a 6-6 record against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +17.2 points per game. They are 6-4 ATS as the favorite and 0-2 as the underdog, while their home ATS record stands at 3-4.

This week’s over/under line is set at 53.5 points. Penn State’s average over/under line this season has been 49.8 points, and their games have averaged 50 points. They’ve gone over the total in five games and under in seven.

Heading into week 11, Penn State’s offense ranks 22nd in points per game, scoring 33.6 per contest. However, they are 4th in our offensive power rankings. The Nittany Lions are 16th in rushing, averaging 203.6 yards per game on 37.5 attempts.

Nicholas Singleton leads the ground attack with 838 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored seven touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 2,894 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109.

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Despite allowing 45 points in their recent 45-37 loss to Oregon, Penn State’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 10th nationally by giving up just 16.4 points per game. Against Oregon, they allowed 469 total yards, including 283 passing yards and four passing touchdowns.

On average, Penn State’s defense has given up just 106.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 18th in the country. They’ve also held opposing quarterbacks to a 58.2% completion rate and a passer rating of 77.3.

SMU is the road underdog in their week one matchup against Penn State, with the Nittany Lions favored by -9. We expect SMU to cover the spread, with a projected final score of 27-21 in favor of Penn State.

For the over/under, with the line set at 53.5 points, our projection of 48 points suggests that taking the under is the best play.

No. 11 SMU Shoots for Playoff Statement at No. 6 Penn State

SMU‘s journey to its first College Football Playoff appearance has been nothing short of remarkable. Picked to finish seventh in its debut season in the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Mustangs have shattered expectations and now have a chance to deliver a statement win over No. 6 Penn State on Saturday in University Park, Pennsylvania.

A Battle Against the Odds and the Elements

The 11th-seeded Mustangs (11-2) head into a chilly matchup against a favored Penn State squad (11-2), with temperatures expected in the low 20s and a “whiteout” atmosphere created by the Nittany Lions’ passionate fan base. However, SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is unfazed by the forecast.

“They’re playing in the same weather we are,” Lashlee said. “Both teams are playing the same conditions, whether there’s snow or not, whether it’s really cold or just kind of cold.”

The winner will advance to face No. 3 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31.

SMU’s Historic Season

The Mustangs have taken a challenging route to the CFP, edging out traditional power Alabama for the final playoff spot. They went undefeated in ACC play, and their only two losses were by a combined six points—to BYU and Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

A win on Saturday would secure SMU’s first 12-win season since 1935. The Mustangs will rely heavily on quarterback Kevin Jennings and running back Brashard Smith. Jennings has thrown for 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns, while Smith has tallied 1,270 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns, and 1,814 all-purpose yards, just shy of the school record. SMU averages an impressive 38.5 points per game.

Penn State’s Playoff Push

Penn State, a team pegged as a playoff contender from the start of the season, fell short of the Big Ten title with losses to Ohio State and Oregon. Despite those setbacks, the Nittany Lions are battle-tested and ready for the Mustangs.

“They’re a good team — prepared to go the distance with these guys,” said Penn State center Nick Dawkins. “It’s going to be very important to be ready to play four quarters.”

Quarterback Drew Allar, who has passed for 2,894 yards and 21 touchdowns, recently announced his return for the 2025 season, providing stability and leadership for the program.
“It was a football decision,” Allar explained. “Me and my family had extensive talks about it. I came to the conclusion that it was best for my future.”

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Key Players to Watch

Penn State boasts a balanced attack with standout tight end Tyler Warren (88 receptions, 1,062 yards, 10 touchdowns) and a dynamic backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton (838 rushing yards) and Kaytron Allen (822 yards). On defense, Abdul Carter, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, anchors the unit with 19.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks.
“There’s a reason he’s a top-five, top-10 pick in the upcoming draft,” Lashlee said of Carter. “He’s an all-around player with an incredible motor.”

A Historic Matchup

This is the third meeting between the schools. Their first clash ended in a 13-13 tie in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1, 1948, and Penn State won the second matchup 26-21 during the 1978 season.

With two high-powered offenses and championship aspirations on the line, Saturday’s showdown promises to be an electrifying contest in Happy Valley.