Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers Picks and Predictions December 22nd 2024

Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers December 22nd 2024

The 49ers are +103 on the money line as they take on the Dolphins at 4:25 ET on Sunday, December 22nd. The Dolphins are the favorite with a point spread of -1.5. This week 16 non-conference matchup is being televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 46 points.

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San Francisco vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: 49ers at Dolphins
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens
• Date: Sunday, December 22nd
• Betting Odds MIA -123 | SF +103 O/U 46

The 49ers Can Win If…

Heading into week 16, the 49ers sit 7th in our NFL power rankings despite their 6-8 record. They have a scoring margin of -0.4 points per game and are 5-9 against the spread. As favorites, they are 5-7 ATS, and they are 0-2 when going into a game as underdogs. San Francisco’s O/U record is 7-7, with their games averaging 45.3 points compared to an average line of 46.5.

After a big win over the Bears in week 14, the 49ers couldn’t keep the momentum going, losing 12-6 to the Rams in week 15. They were 3-point favorites in that matchup, but the loss dropped their playoff chances to 0.1%. San Francisco is also 4th in the NFC West with a 1-4 record in division games.

After a stellar week 14 performance in which Brock Purdy threw for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns, he struggled in week 15, completing just 14 of 31 passes for 142 yards and an interception against the Rams. The 49ers’ offense failed to score in the 2nd and 4th quarters, finishing with only 6 points. Isaac Guerendo led the rushing attack with 57 yards on 16 carries, while George Kittle had 4 receptions for 61 yards.

San Francisco ranks 13th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.4 points per game, and 8th in total yards with 365.1 per game. They are 10th in passing yards, averaging 231.6 per game, and 7th in rushing with 133.5 yards per game. The 49ers are 10th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 42.3% success rate.

In their 12-6 loss to the Rams, the 49ers’ defense played well against the pass, allowing just 160 yards through the air. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 142 yards on 38 attempts. Despite this, the Rams didn’t score any touchdowns and were held to only 26.7% on third down.

The 49ers’ defense also didn’t record any sacks in the game, but they did manage to hit the quarterback two more times than the Rams. Additionally, they held the Rams to a 59.3% completion percentage.

• Across San Francisco’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Across San Francisco’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 4-6. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-7 and an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Dolphins Can Win If…

Following three straight wins, the Dolphins couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 15, falling to the Texans 20-12. The loss dropped Miami to 6-8, leaving them with just a 4.9% chance of making the playoffs. They currently sit 15th in our NFL power rankings.

Against the spread, the Dolphins are 5-9 this season, with an average scoring margin of -2.6 points per game. They’ve failed to cover in three straight games, including their week 14 win over the Jets, where they won by 6 points as 6.5-point favorites.

Heading into week 16, the Dolphins rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game (19.7) and 19th in passing yards per game (324.1). Miami is 14th in passing yards per game (222.6), with 35 attempts per game, and 24th in rushing yards per game (101.4) on 26.3 attempts per game. They rank 14th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (38.4%) and 17th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 15, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 196 yards, with 29 completions on 40 attempts, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Malik Washington led the team with 5 catches for 52 yards, and De’Von Achane had 41 rushing yards on 12 carries. Miami scored 6 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters but was shut out in the 1st and 4th quarters.

In their 20-12 loss to the Texans, the Dolphins’ defense allowed just 104 passing yards, but still gave up two passing touchdowns. Houston finished with 181 total yards, and Miami defended the run well, allowing only 77 yards on 20 attempts. The Dolphins also recorded four sacks and won the quarterback hit battle by three.

Despite allowing just 104 yards through the air, the Dolphins gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed the Texans to convert on 38.5% of their third downs. Miami’s defense will be looking to improve in the red zone in upcoming games, as they allowed Houston to score on two of their limited opportunities.

• Spanning across their last three games, Miami have gone 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 3-0.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Dolphins have gone 6-4 straight up. Against the spread, Miami went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our projected final score for this week 16 matchup between the 49ers and Dolphins is 25-22 in favor of the 49ers. With the point spread at the time of writing this, the 49ers are our pick to not only win but cover the spread. They are currently sitting at +1.5 road underdogs, making them our best bet to cover.

For the over/under, we like this game to go over, with a projected combined score of 47 points and the O/U line sitting at 46 points.

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Desperate for a Win: Dolphins and 49ers Brace for a Season-Defining Showdown

The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Once heralded as offensive powerhouses, both teams now face mounting challenges that have put their playoff hopes in jeopardy. As they prepare to clash this Sunday, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

A Shared Struggle for Offensive Identity

Both the Dolphins and the 49ers are grappling with offensive woes that starkly contrast their high-scoring performances last season. Miami’s once-potent attack has sputtered, averaging just 19.7 points per game—good for 24th in the league. San Francisco, similarly, has seen its offensive efficiency plummet, with struggles in goal-to-go situations ranking them 27th in the NFL.

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel, who previously served as the offensive coordinator under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, recognizes the critical need to reestablish control at the line of scrimmage.

“When your line of scrimmage is violated to the point you have turnover football, hits on the quarterback, and short drives, you have to figure out a way to reestablish that,” McDaniel said. “That problem isn’t going anywhere until we solve it.”

Injuries Take Their Toll

Injuries have played a significant role in the decline of both teams. For the 49ers, the absence of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams has left their offensive line vulnerable, contributing to 18 quarterback pressures and zero touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Defensive end Nick Bosa’s availability remains in question as he battles oblique injuries.

Miami faces its own challenges, with wide receiver Tyreek Hill nursing multiple injuries and struggling to find his usual rhythm with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins’ quarterback, who led the NFL in passing yards last season, threw three costly interceptions in a loss to the Houston Texans last week, further highlighting Miami’s offensive disconnect.

A Battle of Coaching Minds

This game represents more than just a clash of teams; it’s a meeting of two coaching minds deeply familiar with each other. McDaniel and Shanahan share a history of collaboration, and both are renowned for their offensive acumen. This familiarity adds an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.

Shanahan, frustrated by his team’s recent struggles, has taken an introspective approach to improve the 49ers’ performance.

“We’ll take a few days, come back, and play better football,” Shanahan said. “It’s time to challenge the character of our team.”

Key Matchups to Watch

1. 49ers’ Defense vs. Dolphins’ Offensive Line: San Francisco’s defense, bolstered by the return of linebacker Dre Greenlaw, will test Miami’s faltering offensive line. Greenlaw’s presence adds physicality and leadership to a unit eager to disrupt Tagovailoa’s rhythm.
2. Nick Bosa (if active) vs. Miami’s Pass Protection: Bosa’s ability to wreck game plans looms large. Even if he plays limited snaps, his impact could swing momentum in favor of the 49ers.
3. Tua Tagovailoa vs. Fred Warner: Warner, one of the league’s top linebackers, will lead San Francisco’s effort to contain Miami’s aerial attack. Tagovailoa acknowledges the challenge Warner presents, calling him “one of the best linebackers I’ve ever played against.”

Lessons from the Past

When these teams met in 2022, the 49ers dominated, limiting Miami to 33 rushing yards and sacking Tagovailoa three times en route to a 33-17 victory. That game marked the first significant action for then-rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who has since solidified his role as San Francisco’s starter.

While much has changed since that matchup, the lessons remain relevant. Miami must find a way to protect Tagovailoa and establish a more effective ground game to avoid a repeat of last year’s struggles.

Urgency on Both Sides

Both teams sit at 6-8, clinging to slim playoff hopes. For Miami, rediscovering its offensive rhythm is paramount. McDaniel has made it clear that the team’s postseason aspirations hinge on solving their protection issues and regaining their explosiveness.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are looking to salvage pride in a season that has fallen short of expectations. Shanahan’s focus on character and resilience underscores the importance of this game for his team’s morale.

Conclusion

The Dolphins and 49ers are at a crossroads. Both teams have the talent to compete with the NFL’s best but face significant obstacles that must be overcome to keep their playoff dreams alive. Sunday’s game will not only test their physical abilities but also their mental toughness and adaptability.

As the clock ticks down on the regular season, one thing is certain: desperation will be on full display in South Florida.