Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Picks and Predictions December 22nd 2024

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles December 22nd 2024

FOX will broadcast the week 16 NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Commanders from Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD. The Eagles are favored on the road with a point spread of -3.5 and a money line of -176. The Commanders’ money line odds are +147, and the over/under line is set at 45.5 points. The game is on Sunday, December 22nd at 1:00 ET.

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Philadelphia vs. Washington Key Information

• Teams: Eagles at Commanders
• Where: Northwest Stadium Landover
• Date: Sunday, December 22nd
• Betting Odds PHI -176 | WAS +147 O/U 45.5

The Eagles Can Win If…

With a 12-2 record, the Eagles sit atop the NFC East and have a 99.5% chance of winning the division, according to our projections. Philadelphia is currently on a 10-game winning streak, which includes a 27-13 victory over the Steelers in week 15. They were favored by 5.5 points and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 9-5 this season.

Heading into week 16, the Eagles rank 5th in our NFL power rankings. Their O/U record is 5-9, with the under hitting in each of their last three games. Their contests have averaged 44 points this season, compared to an average line of 46.

Heading into week 16, the Eagles are 4th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in rushing attempts (36.8) and rushing yards per game (186.2). Jalen Hurts has been playing well, with a passer rating of 125 in week 15, throwing for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. A.J. Brown had 8 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown in that game, while Saquon Barkley rushed for 65 yards on 19 carries.

Philadelphia ranks 8th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 26.4, and they are 6th in yards per game with 373.2. They have struggled in the red zone, converting only 10.9% of their attempts, which ranks 25th in the league. However, they have been strong on 3rd down, with a conversion rate of 44.8%, placing them 7th in the NFL.

In their most recent game, the Eagles’ defense gave up just 107 passing yards to the Steelers. They allowed 14 completions on 22 attempts (63.6%) and held Pittsburgh to 4.9 yards per attempt. Despite this, the Eagles gave up one passing touchdown. Philadelphia’s run defense was also strong, allowing just 56 yards on 17 attempts.

The Eagles’ defense was tough on third downs, allowing the Steelers to convert only 30% of their chances. Philadelphia itself had two sacks in the game, but they did lose the tackle for loss and quarterback hit differentials by -1 each.

• Philadelphia has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 0-3.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Philadelphia has a record of 10-0. This includes going 7-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Commanders Can Win If…

With two straight wins, Washington sits at 9-5 and holds the 7th spot in the NFC standings. After a week 12 loss to the Cowboys, the Commanders bounced back with wins over the Titans and Saints. In week 15, they narrowly defeated New Orleans 20-19, but couldn’t cover the 7.5-point spread. Washington was favored by 6 points against Tennessee in week 13 and won 42-19.

Our projections give Washington an 86.7% chance of making the playoffs, but just a 0.5% chance of winning the NFC East. Heading into week 16, they rank 10th in our NFL power rankings. The Commanders are 8-5-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +5.8 points per game. Their O/U record is 9-5, with their games averaging 50.8 points.

Jayden Daniels has been efficient under center, completing 25 of 31 passes for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 15, posting a passer rating of 118. This followed a 206-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 13 and a 275-yard outing in week 12. However, the Commanders’ offensive line struggled in week 15, allowing 8 sacks. Terry McLaurin led the receiving corps with 7 catches for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Saints.

Washington ranks 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.3 points per game (6th) and 373.9 yards per game (5th). They rely heavily on the run game, with 32 rushing attempts per game, ranking 3rd in the NFL, and they average 155.5 rushing yards per game. On 3rd down, they convert 44.9% of the time, which ranks 6th in the league.

In the Commanders’ 20-19 win over the Saints, their defense allowed just 176 passing yards on 15 completions. Washington picked off one pass, but did allow two passing touchdowns. They held the Saints to a 46.9% completion percentage and to just a 27.3% conversion rate on third down.

Washington’s run defense allowed 69 yards on 16 attempts. They also had three sacks and won the quarterback hit battle, although they did have a -4 disadvantage in tackles for loss.

• The Commanders have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Their record vs the spread sits at 1-2 in these matchups, while posting a 3-0 over-under mark.
• Washington has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Our prediction for this week 16 matchup between the Eagles and Commanders is a 25-19 win for Washington. With the Commanders currently sitting at +3.5 point home underdogs, we like them to not only win but also cover the spread.

For this one, our best bet is to take Washington to cover at +3.5. And with the over/under line sitting at 45.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 44 points.

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Commanders Welcome Eagles: A Showdown of Playoff Hopes and Dominance

The Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles prepare for a pivotal Week 16 clash that promises high stakes and playoff drama. With the Eagles (12-2) already in the postseason, they aim to clinch the NFC East title and secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Commanders (9-5) are fighting to solidify their playoff berth, needing a strong finish to achieve their goals after years of December disappointment.

Eagles’ Goals: Division Title and More

For the Eagles, this matchup is about maintaining momentum. Head coach Nick Sirianni downplayed the pressure, saying:

“We’re getting ready to play this game. We know that if we win, the division is ours, but our focus is on preparation.”

The Eagles have been a force throughout the season, boasting an NFL-best defense that allows just 275.6 yards per game and ties for the fewest points allowed (17.6). Quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to lead with poise, and running back Saquon Barkley has been a game-changer, averaging 158 yards per game over his last four outings before being held to 65 yards by Pittsburgh.

Clinching the NFC East on Sunday is the immediate goal, but the bigger prize—home-field advantage through the playoffs—is within reach if the Eagles stay dominant.

Commanders’ Push for the Playoffs

Washington enters this matchup with optimism, despite a tough season. After finishing 4-13 last year, their 20-19 win over the Saints last Sunday was their second consecutive victory, keeping their wild-card hopes alive. A win on Sunday and specific losses by the Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks could seal their postseason berth.

Head coach Dan Quinn emphasized the importance of this matchup:

“If you want to be seen as a heavy hitter, you’ve got to beat the heavy hitters. Philadelphia has been dominant, but we’re excited to take them on at home.”

This is more than a game for Washington; it’s a statement opportunity against a division rival.

Injury Reports and Player Comebacks

Both teams received encouraging injury updates midweek. For the Commanders, star defensive end Jonathan Allen (torn pectoral) has resumed practice, providing a potential boost to their defense. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore, acquired in a high-profile trade, made his debut last Sunday after recovering from a hamstring injury and is expected to be a key factor.

The Eagles also opened the practice window for defensive end Bryce Huff (wrist), who has missed the past four games. However, several key players, including A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Lane Johnson, were listed as resting or recovering, reflecting a team managing its roster for a deep playoff run.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Eagles’ Offense vs. Commanders’ Defense:
   • Hurts and Barkley have been dominant, but Washington’s defensive line, bolstered by Allen and Lattimore, will look to disrupt their rhythm.
2. Daniels vs. Eagles’ Defense:
   • Jayden Daniels will face the NFL’s best defense, a tall task for Washington’s injury-plagued offense.
3. Coaching Decisions:
   • Quinn’s bold fourth-down call in Week 11 resulted in a loss. How he manages situational play-calling could be a decisive factor.

Head-to-Head History

The Eagles won the Week 11 matchup 26-18, but Washington had its chances. A failed fourth-down conversion in field goal range proved costly. Historically, the Eagles have dominated, including back-to-back wins last season (34-31 OT and 38-31) and three consecutive victories at Washington’s home field.

Playoff and Historical Implications

For the Commanders, a win would improve their record to 10-5, matching their best through 15 games since 1991. For the Eagles, victory cements their NFC East title and inches them closer to the coveted No. 1 seed. Both teams understand the weight of this game, not just for the standings but also for their reputations.

The Final Word

This matchup epitomizes meaningful December football, blending postseason aspirations with divisional pride. The Eagles, with their eyes on the NFC crown, must guard against complacency. The Commanders, on the other hand, aim to prove they belong among the NFC’s elite.