Fresno State Bulldogs vs Northern Illinois Huskies Picks and Predictions December 23rd 2024

Fresno State Bulldogs vs Northern Illinois Huskies December 23rd 2024

ESPN is handling the television coverage for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl matchup between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Fresno State Bulldogs. Kick-off is set for 2:30 ET from Albertsons Stadium in Boise. The Huskies are technically the road team, but this game is being played on a neutral site. Northern Illinois is 7-5 on the season, and Fresno State is 6-6. The Huskies are the slight -1.5-point favorite, and the over/under line is currently at 42 points.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Key Information

Northern Illinois heads into their Week 13 matchup against Fresno State with a 7-5 record. They’ve gone 3-1 at home and 3-3 on the road this season. The Huskies have been favored in six of their 12 games, posting a 4-2 record as the favorite.

Their ATS record stands at 4-5-1, with a 4-2 mark on the road and 0-3-1 at home. As the favorite, they are 1-4-1 against the spread, but they’ve gone 3-1 ATS as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is set at 42 points. Northern Illinois games have averaged an over/under line of 44.9 points, and their over/under record is 4-6, with an average total of 42.7 points per game.

Northern Illinois has leaned heavily on their ground game, ranking 12th in the nation with 41.8 rushing attempts per game and averaging 208.6 rushing yards, placing them 20th in the country. Gavin Williams leads the team with 741 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored four touchdowns. The Huskies are averaging 24.2 points per game and have converted 43.5% of their third-down attempts, ranking 33rd nationally.

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Quarterback Ethan Hampton has thrown for 1,600 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 84. Northern Illinois ranks 116th in passing yards per game. Trayvon Rudolph leads the receiving corps with 392 yards and one touchdown on 37 catches. Heading into week 1, Northern Illinois is ranked 104th in our offensive power rankings.

Northern Illinois’ defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 12th nationally by allowing just 18.4 points per game. In their recent game against Central Michigan, they gave up only 16 points and forced an interception, while holding the Chippewas to 204 total yards, including just 92 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 113.2 rushing yards per game on 31.5 attempts against Northern Illinois, while quarterbacks have managed a 54.2% completion rate and a 77.3 passer rating, averaging 169.2 passing yards per game.

Fresno State enters Week 13 with a 6-6 record, going 3-2 at home and 2-4 on the road. They’ve been favored in seven of their 12 games, posting a 5-2 record as the favorite. At home, they are 3-1 when favored.

Against the spread, the Bulldogs are 6-4-1, with a +2 average scoring margin. They are 4-2-1 ATS as the favorite and 3-2 at home.

Their over/under record is 4-7, with an average total of 51.2 points per game. This week’s line is set at 42 points, compared to their average line of 49.6 points.

Fresno State’s offensive strength lies in their passing game, ranking 18th in completions and averaging 244.7 yards per game. Mikey Keene has thrown for 2,887 yards and has a 70.4% completion rate. The Bulldogs are 56th in scoring, with 26.6 points per game, and we rank them 93rd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1.

Keene has 18 touchdown passes but also 11 interceptions, and his passer rating is 95. Leading receiver Mac Dalena has 941 yards and eight touchdowns. Fresno State’s run game has struggled, averaging 97.4 yards per game.

Fresno State’s defense allowed just 20 points in their recent game against UCLA, but the Bulldogs still lost 20-13. They gave up 365 total yards, including 289 passing yards, while holding UCLA to 76 rushing yards on 31 attempts.

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On the season, Fresno State is ranked 45th nationally, giving up 24.6 points per game. They’ve allowed 217 passing yards per game and 139.1 rushing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 54.5% of their passes, which is the 15th-lowest percentage in the country.

With the over/under line set at 42 points, our projection of 40 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this matchup between Fresno State and Northern Illinois.

Fresno State comes into the game as the slight underdog at +1.5, but we have them winning straight-up with a final score of 22-18. Look for Fresno State to cover the spread as the home underdog.

Amid Constant Change, NIU and Fresno State Embrace Tradition at Potato Bowl

In a season marked by uncertainty and constant change, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl offers a brief respite for Northern Illinois (7-5) and Fresno State (6-6) as they meet for an afternoon showdown in Boise, Idaho. For roughly three hours on Monday, the two teams will clash on the famous blue turf, offering a moment of tradition amidst the chaos of the college football landscape.

Both schools have faced challenges that reflect the rapidly shifting dynamics of college football. Neither team will have its starting quarterback due to the transfer portal. Fresno State, for instance, is preparing for a move to the Pac-12, while Northern Illinois is rumored to be eyeing a transition to the Mountain West by 2026. To add to the drama, Fresno State’s official head coach, Jeff Tedford, is not leading the team in Boise; instead, interim head coach Tim Skipper, who took over in July due to health issues with Tedford, will hand the reins to Southern California associate head coach Matt Entz after the bowl game.

Seniors on Center Stage

Despite the turmoil, Monday’s game offers something that remains a staple of college football: the opportunity for seniors to end their careers with one final bowl game. Northern Illinois has a record 30 seniors who will take the field in what could be their last game in a Huskies uniform. For many, this will be a chance to make lasting memories on the blue turf of Boise before they transition to the next chapter of their lives.

“You have to adjust and adapt to the new landscape of college football and do the best you can,” said NIU head coach Thomas Hammock. “But I’m glad we didn’t have to cancel a game like Marshall—that we can go out there and experience this game with our seniors and let them go out there and have one last hurrah.”

One of the Huskies’ standout memories this season was their shocking 16-14 victory over fifth-ranked Notre Dame on September 7, a win that will be etched in the history books. However, that victory was guided by quarterback Ethan Hampton, who has since entered the transfer portal, leaving Northern Illinois with a new signal-caller.

NIU’s New Quarterback: Josh Holst

With Hampton gone, redshirt freshman Josh Holst will make his second start for the Huskies. Holst, who had a mixed debut with 210 passing yards and 48 rushing yards in a 13-6 loss to Toledo, has shown improvement in recent weeks. According to Hammock, Holst has made significant strides in both his preparation and mental approach to the game. “I’m excited to watch him go out and play. You can do a little bit more (with Holst) because he does have the ability to hurt you with his legs,” Hammock said.

Holst’s dual-threat abilities will add an extra layer of unpredictability to NIU’s offense, and he’ll be looking to prove himself in a high-stakes bowl game.

Fresno State’s Quarterback Dilemma

For Fresno State, the quarterback situation is also up in the air. Mikey Keene, who led the Mountain West with 2,892 passing yards this season, is one of 14 Bulldogs players who have entered the transfer portal and will not play in the bowl game. In Keene’s absence, Fresno State has listed sophomore Joshua Wood and freshman Jayden Mandal as co-starters on the depth chart. Wood, who is more likely to start, has limited experience as a passer but has been effective as a runner, rushing 26 times for 86 yards and five touchdowns in the Wildcat formation.

“It’s a challenge, right?” said Hammock. “It’s almost like a first-game-of-the-year mentality. You have an idea of what they want to do schematically—and then you’ll figure out the personnel once you get out there.”

The uncertainty surrounding Fresno State’s quarterback situation will add an element of mystery to Monday’s game, as Northern Illinois will have to prepare for multiple possibilities.

Embracing Adversity

Despite the challenges, Fresno State remains focused on their bowl appearance as a source of pride. Interim head coach Tim Skipper expressed the resilience of his team after they secured bowl eligibility despite a season full of adversity. “We’ve been through a lot of adversity, but we just kept on swinging,” Skipper said.

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Both teams will have to lean on their seniors and step up in the face of uncertainty. For the Bulldogs, it’s a chance to make the most of an unpredictable season, while the Huskies look to cap off a memorable year with one last win.

Key Players to Watch

• Josh Holst (Northern Illinois): The redshirt freshman will be under center for the Huskies and will need to build on his development as both a passer and a runner.
• Joshua Wood (Fresno State): With the likely start for Wood, his ability to execute the Wildcat offense and contribute on the ground could be pivotal.
• Seniors (Both Teams): For Northern Illinois, 30 seniors will be playing their final game, and for Fresno State, their senior leadership will be key to ending the season on a high note.

What to Expect

Despite the challenges and changes both teams have faced, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl offers a rare moment of tradition and closure. With questions at quarterback for both teams, the game may come down to which team can better manage the chaos and seize the opportunity. For NIU, the chance to give their seniors one last game on the blue turf is a fitting conclusion to a season full of ups and downs, while Fresno State will look to fight through adversity and finish the season strong.