Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints Picks and Predictions December 23rd 2024

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints December 23rd 2024

The Saints and Packers will face off on Monday, December 23rd at 8:15 ET, with ESPN covering this week 16 NFC matchup. The game, being played at Lambeau Field, has the Packers as heavy favorites, with a money line of -879 and a point spread of -13.5. The Saints’ money line odds are +577, and the over/under line is set at 42 points.

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New Orleans vs. Green Bay Key Information

• Teams: Saints at Packers
• Where: Lambeau Field Green Bay
• Date: Monday, December 23rd
• Betting Odds GB -879 | NO +577 O/U 42

The Saints Can Win If…

With a 5-9 record, the Saints are 3rd in the NFC South and rank 30th in our power rankings. They have a -0.2 average scoring margin and are 6-8 against the spread this season. They are 5-5 ATS as underdogs and 1-3 as favorites. Their O/U record is 7-7, with the under hitting in their last three games.

New Orleans has a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs or winning the division. In week 15, they narrowly lost to the Commanders, 20-19, but covered the spread as 7.5-point underdogs. In week 14, they beat the Giants 14-11, but couldn’t cover as 5.5-point favorites.

Heading into week 16, the Saints are 18th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 15th in both points per game (22.1) and yards per game (334.6). New Orleans ranks 20th in passing yards per game, with 210.2, on 31.6 attempts per game. On the ground, they are 10th in rushing yards per game (124.4) and 8th in rushing attempts. The Saints are 18th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate, converting 37.4% of their attempts.

In week 15, the Saints scored 19 points, all in the 4th quarter, in a loss to the Commanders. Spencer Rattler threw for 135 yards on 10/21 passing, with 1 touchdown and no interceptions. Kendre Miller led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 9 carries, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 2 catches for 64 yards.

In their 20-19 loss to the Commanders, the Saints’ defense allowed 8 sacks, but still couldn’t pull out the win. The Saints gave up 137 rushing yards on 35 attempts and allowed 189 passing yards on 25 completions. Despite the 8 sacks, the Commanders’ offense still managed to complete 80.6% of their passes and score two passing touchdowns. On third downs, the Commanders converted 52.9% of their chances.

The Saints’ defense was able to generate a lot of pressure in the backfield, with 8 sacks in the game. However, they also allowed the Commanders to hit on 80.6% of their passes and convert on 52.9% of their third downs. New Orleans also allowed 2 passing touchdowns in their 20-19 loss.

• Across New Orleans’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 0-3.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Saints have gone 3-7 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 3-7, while posting an over-under record of 4-6.

The Packers Can Win If…

Heading into week 16, the Packers sit at 10-4, giving them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and placing them 3rd in our power rankings. Despite their strong record, Green Bay is just 1-3 in divisional games, including a 34-31 loss to the Lions in week 14. However, they bounced back with a 30-13 win over the Seahawks in week 15, covering the 3-point spread.

So far, the Packers are 7-6-1 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +6.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-7-1, with their games averaging 47.6 points compared to a line of 46.2.

Jordan Love has been on a roll, posting passer ratings of 123 in week 15, 111 in week 14, and 129 in week 13. Against the Seahawks in week 15, he threw for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20/27 passing without an interception. Josh Jacobs led the ground game with 94 yards on 26 carries, while Christian Watson had 3 catches for 56 yards.

Green Bay’s offense ranks 7th in our power rankings, scoring 27.1 points per game. They average 375.4 yards per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL, and they are 11th in passing yards with 231.1 per game. On the ground, they rank 5th in rushing attempts and 4th in rushing yards, averaging 144.4 per game.

In their 30-13 win over the Seahawks, the Packers’ defense was dominant, allowing just 128 passing yards and forcing two interceptions. Seattle managed only 80 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Green Bay’s defense also recorded seven sacks and held the Seahawks to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down.

The Packers’ pass rush was excellent, winning the QB hit differential by six and the tackles for loss battle by eight. Seattle finished with 208 total yards against Green Bay in the game.

• Spanning across their last three games, Green Bay have gone 2-1. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Packers have gone 7-3 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 6-4, while posting an over-under record of 4-5-1.

The Lean

With the point spread sitting at 13.5 in favor of the Saints, there is a lot of value in taking the Packers to cover. Our projected final score has the Packers winning 21-20, making them a great pick against the spread.

For the over/under, with the line at 42 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 41 points. This could be a good way to hedge your bets if you decide to take the Packers to cover.

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Packers Nearing Playoff Berth but Staying Focused on the Saints

The Green Bay Packers are on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth as they prepare to face the New Orleans Saints in a pivotal Monday night matchup. Currently sitting at 10-4, the Packers can solidify their playoff position and improve their seeding with a victory over the Saints (5-9). Depending on other results from Sunday, Green Bay might secure a playoff spot even before taking the field.

Packers Stay Grounded Amid Playoff Buzz

Despite the excitement surrounding their postseason prospects, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur remains laser-focused on the immediate task.

“I’m not even worried about the playoffs,” LaFleur said. “I’m worried about us continuing to get better, staying in the moment, focusing on what’s right in front of us. Nothing is a lock for us, so you’ve got to go out and win games.”

Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth on Sunday if:

1. The Falcons lose or tie against the Giants, and
2. Either the Rams or Seahawks lose or tie against the Jets or Vikings, respectively.

However, their path to the postseason depends primarily on their own performance. Following the game against the Saints, the Packers face tough division matchups against the Vikings and Bears.

Packers Riding High on Momentum

Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning eight of their last ten games. The only blemishes in this stretch came against division rival Detroit, a team tied with Minnesota atop the NFC North.

Jordan Love Shines

Quarterback Jordan Love has found his rhythm after a midseason slump. In his last four games, Love has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, a stark contrast to his earlier three-game stretch with just one touchdown and three picks.

Josh Jacobs Leading the Charge

Running back Josh Jacobs has been a cornerstone of Green Bay’s offense, ranking third in the NFL in rushing yards (1,147) and carries (265). LaFleur acknowledged Jacobs’ heavy workload, noting, “The productivity speaks for itself, but we’ve got to be mindful of his workload.”

Saints’ Struggles Continue

The Saints enter the matchup with a disappointing 5-9 record, their playoff hopes all but extinguished following a 20-19 home loss to the Washington Commanders. This marks another challenging season for New Orleans, who haven’t reached the playoffs since 2020.

Quarterback Questions

Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler is expected to start if Derek Carr (non-throwing hand) remains sidelined. Rattler has shown flashes of potential but struggled earlier in the season, going 0-3 as a starter. In last week’s loss, he replaced Jake Haener and nearly led a comeback, throwing for 135 yards and a touchdown.

Interim head coach Darren Rizzi praised Rattler’s growth, stating, “He gave us a spark. He was much more relaxed and in control.”

Injury Woes

The Saints have been plagued by injuries all season. Key players like running back Alvin Kamara (groin), wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion), and quarterback Derek Carr may all miss Monday’s game. Kamara, who is 50 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season, would be a significant loss.

Rizzi addressed the adversity, emphasizing resilience: “Everybody has injuries, some more than others. The best teams overcome them.”

Injury Updates and Game Readiness

The Packers are not without their own injury concerns. Safety Javon Bullard and linebacker Quay Walker missed practice this week due to ankle injuries, potentially weakening their defense.

For the Saints, defensive end Chase Young (illness) is expected to play, providing a boost to their pass rush. However, top wide receiver Chris Olave remains doubtful, extending his six-week absence.

Game Outlook

The Packers enter Monday’s game as clear favorites, thanks to their recent form and strong roster. However, the Saints have shown they can be dangerous, particularly if Spencer Rattler builds on his promising second-half performance against Washington.

Green Bay will likely focus on maintaining their offensive balance through Jordan Love’s efficient passing and Josh Jacobs’ dominant ground game. On defense, they’ll aim to capitalize on the Saints’ injuries and force mistakes from the rookie quarterback.

For New Orleans, this game is an opportunity to end the season on a high note, giving young players valuable experience while showcasing resilience.

Conclusion

The stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. For the Packers, a win brings them closer to their ultimate goal: a deep playoff run. For the Saints, the game is about salvaging pride and building for the future.

Monday night’s matchup promises to be an exciting clash of two teams at different points in their season journeys, but with plenty to play for.