San Jose State Spartans vs South Florida Bulls Picks and Predictions December 24th 2024

San Jose State Spartans vs South Florida Bulls December 24th 2024

San Jose State is the -2.5 point favorite as they face South Florida in the Hawai’i Bowl, being played at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu. Kick-off is set for 8:00 ET on Tuesday, December 24th, with ESPN handling the broadcast. The over/under line is at 62.5 points. South Florida comes in with a 6-6 record, while San Jose State is 7-5 this season.

South Florida vs. San Jose State Key Information

• Teams: Bulls at Spartans
• Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex Honolulu
• Date: Tuesday, December 24th
• Betting Odds SJST -135 | SFL +112 O/U 62.5

The Bulls Can Win If…

South Florida enters their Week 1 matchup against San Jose State with a 6-6 record. They’ve gone 3-3 at home and 2-3 on the road. The Bulls have been favored in five of their 12 games, posting a 4-1 record as the favorite, but they are just 1-5 as the underdog.

South Florida’s ATS record stands at 5-6, with a +2.4 average scoring margin. They’ve gone 3-2 against the spread on the road and 2-4 at home. As the favorite, they are 3-2 ATS this season.

The over/under line for this week is 62.5 points. South Florida’s games have averaged 60.4 points, with an average over/under line of 58.1. Their over/under record is 6-4-1, and they’ve had two games with higher lines than this week’s total.

South Florida’s offense has leaned on their rushing attack, averaging 191.8 yards per game, ranking 32nd nationally. Kelley Joiner has rushed for 766 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and has scored 11 touchdowns. Overall, the Bulls are scoring 31.4 points per game, placing them 35th in the country.

Quarterback Bryce Archie has thrown for 1,679 yards, but he has an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions, with nine each, and holds a passer rating of 74. South Florida ranks 71st in passing yards per game. Sean Atkins leads the team with 695 receiving yards.

South Florida’s defense struggled in their recent game against Rice, allowing 35 points and 550 total yards. While they limited Rice to 120 rushing yards on 40 attempts, they gave up 430 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air.

On the season, South Florida’s defense is ranked 166th nationally, allowing 279.1 passing yards per game. Opponents have averaged 159.7 rushing yards per game on 38.6 attempts.

• The South Florida Bulls have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 3-0.
• South Florida has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the spread sits at 4-6 in these matchups, while posting a 6-3-1 over-under mark.

The Spartans Can Win If…

San Jose State enters their Week 1 game against South Florida with a 7-5 record. They’ve gone 3-2 at home and 2-2 on the road this season. The Spartans have been favored in three games, winning all three, and have a +1.1 average scoring margin.

Against the spread, San Jose State is 3-6, with a 1-4 record at home. They are 1-2 ATS as the favorite and 2-4 as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 62.5 points. San Jose State’s games have averaged 53.9 points, with an average line of 54.9 points. They are 3-6 against the over/under this season.

San Jose State’s offense is centered around their passing game, ranking 5th nationally with 325.2 yards per game. They are 6th in passing attempts, averaging 41 per game, and 17th in completions, with 23.6. Heading into week 11, they are 52nd in scoring, with 27.5 points per game, and we have them 77th in our offensive power rankings.

Quarterback Walker Eget has thrown for 2,224 yards, but his passer rating is 83, and he has 11 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. San Jose State is 128th in rushing, averaging 84.5 yards per game. Nick Nash leads the receiving corps with 1,382 yards and 16 touchdowns on 104 catches.

San Jose State’s defense has allowed 26.4 points per game this season, including 31 points in their recent win over Stanford. They gave up 379 total yards, with 252 yards coming through the air, but also managed to force three interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 232.7 passing yards per game against San Jose State, completing 60.4% of their throws. On the ground, the Spartans have allowed 161.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 106th nationally.

• The San Jose State Spartans have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The San Jose State Spartans have gone 7-3 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, San Jose State went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our projections for the South Florida vs. San Jose State matchup suggest that South Florida is the best bet as the road underdog. The current line has San Jose State as -2.5 point favorites, but we have South Florida winning straight-up by a score of 34-32.

With a combined score projection of 66 points, the over/under line of 62.5 points presents good value on the over.

San Jose State Faces South Florida Without Star Receiver Nick Nash

The San Jose State Spartans will take on the South Florida Bulls in the Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday night, but they’ll have to do so without their star wideout and consensus All-American Nick Nash.

Spartans Adjusting Without Nash

Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions (104), receiving yards (1,382), and touchdown catches (16), has opted out of the Hawaii Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Nash, a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, made the decision after consulting with his family.

“Nick needs to do what’s best for him,” Spartans coach Ken Niumatalolo said. “I definitely would love for him to play, but he’s earned it.”

Despite Nash’s absence, San Jose State (7-5) will rely on quarterback Walker Eget to move the ball through the air. Eget has thrown for 2,224 yards and 11 touchdowns in six starts this season, including four games with over 300 passing yards.

On defense, the Spartans lead the nation with 20 interceptions. Safety Robert Rahimi (five interceptions) and linebacker Jordan Pollard (team-high 110 tackles) will anchor the unit, though cornerback DJ Harvey will also be absent after entering the transfer portal and committing to USC.

South Florida’s Balanced Approach

South Florida (6-6) has shown flashes of offensive brilliance this season, averaging nearly 50 points in its wins but struggling to score in losses. The Bulls aim to strike a balance between enjoying their trip to Honolulu and staying focused on the game.

“When it’s time for ball, it’s time for ball,” Bulls coach Alex Golesh said. “I want them to enjoy and reap the rewards of earning the right to do this, while keeping the primary reason we’re out there at the forefront.”

Quarterback Byrum Brown, who has been sidelined with a lower-leg injury since September, is nearing a return, but Bryce Archie is expected to start. Archie has passed for 1,679 yards, nine touchdowns, and nine interceptions.

The Bulls also feature veteran receiver Sean Atkins, the school’s all-time leader in receptions (189) and second in career receiving yards (2,063).

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Key Matchup

The game will likely hinge on how well San Jose State can adapt without Nash and how effectively South Florida can execute its offense. The Spartans’ opportunistic defense, which thrives on turnovers, will aim to disrupt Archie and the Bulls’ rhythm.

Meanwhile, South Florida’s offense will look to capitalize on the absence of key defenders like Harvey, testing the Spartans’ depth.

Looking Ahead

This is the second meeting between the two programs. South Florida won the first encounter, a 42-22 victory at San Jose State in 2017. Both teams will aim to close their seasons on a high note, with the Spartans seeking redemption and the Bulls looking to build momentum for the future.