Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens December 25th 2024

The Ravens are favored on the money line at -210 as they take on the Texans at 4:30 ET on Wednesday, December 25th. The Texans are the home underdog in this week 17 AFC matchup, with a point spread of +4. The over/under line is at 47.5 points. You can catch this one on NFLX, with the Texans at +176 on the money line.

Baltimore vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Ravens at Texans
• Where: NRG Stadium Houston
• Date: Wednesday, December 25th
• Betting Odds BAL -210 | HOU +176 O/U 47.5

The Ravens Can Win If…

With a 10-5 record, the Ravens sit 5th in our power rankings and have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. They have a 52.6% chance of winning the AFC North, where they are currently in 2nd place. Baltimore has won two straight, including a 34-17 victory over the Steelers in week 16 and a 35-14 win over the Giants in week 15. They were able to cover the spread in both games, improving their ATS record to 8-6-1.

The over has hit in two straight Ravens games, including week 16, when they and the Steelers combined for 51 points, surpassing the 44-point line. Baltimore’s O/U record is 12-3 this season, with their games averaging 53.4 points per game.

Heading into week 17, the Ravens lead the NFL in yards per game (423.7) and rank 3rd in points per game, averaging 30.1. Despite being 26th in passing attempts, Baltimore is 5th in passing yards per game, with Lamar Jackson throwing for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 16. Before that, he had a 290-yard, 5-touchdown game in week 15 and a 237-yard performance in week 14.

On the ground, the Ravens are 3rd in rushing attempts and 2nd in rushing yards per game, averaging 181.2. Derrick Henry rushed for 162 yards on 24 carries in week 16. Baltimore ranks 3rd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage.

Despite allowing 117 rushing yards to the Steelers, the Ravens’ defense came up with a good performance in their 34-17 win. They limited Pittsburgh to a 4.9 yards per attempt. The Ravens gave up 198 passing yards, with Pittsburgh going 22/33 (66.7%) through the air. Baltimore forced one interception and allowed two passing touchdowns.

The Ravens’ defense also recorded three sacks, and they held the Steelers to a 40% third-down conversion rate. Baltimore’s defense was also active in the backfield, winning the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

• Over their last three games, the Ravens have gone 2-1 straight up. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Baltimore has a record of 7-3. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 5-4-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 8-2

The Texans Can Win If…

Despite their week 16 loss to the Chiefs, the Texans have locked up the AFC South with a 9-6 record, including a 4-1 mark in division play. They currently rank 4th in the AFC and 11th in our power rankings. Houston is 5-2 at home and 4-4 on the road this season.

The Texans have a +1.3 scoring margin and are 6-8-1 against the spread. They are 4-6-1 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-9-1, with their games averaging 44.9 points (O/U line: 44.8).

Heading into week 17, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 23.1 points per game, which is 13th in the NFL. They are 20th in total yards per game (323.3) and 18th in passing yards (213.7), despite ranking 10th in pass attempts. Houston is 19th in rushing attempts and 18th in rushing yards per game (109.6). On 3rd down, they are 15th in the league, converting 38.2% of their attempts, and they rank 19th in red zone conversion percentage.

C.J. Stroud threw for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16, but he also had 2 interceptions. Joe Mixon led the team with 57 rushing yards on 14 carries, while Tank Dell had 6 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown before suffering a knee injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season.

In their 27-19 loss to the Chiefs, the Texans’ defense allowed 375 total yards. They gave up 124 rushing yards on 28 attempts and allowed 251 passing yards on 28 completions. Houston struggled on third downs, allowing the Chiefs to convert 53.8% of their chances. The Texans’ defense only managed one sack and struggled in the backfield, losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

The Texans’ defense also allowed the Chiefs to complete 68.3% of their passes and score one passing touchdown.

• The Texans have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 1-1-1.
• Across Houston’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 3-6-1.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Texans to cover as home underdogs. Right now, the point spread lines have the Texans at +4, and we have them not only covering but winning by a score of 32-23.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 47.5 points, we have these teams combining for 55 points, making the over a good bet to take.

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Banged-up Texans, high-flying Ravens clash on Christmas

It’s Christmas Day, and while most people are unwrapping gifts, the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens will be duking it out in a high-stakes showdown. The Texans are fighting to keep their playoff dreams alive despite a wave of injuries, while the Ravens are cruising toward a division title with their eyes on the postseason prize. Here’s a modern look at what’s going down.

Texans: Down, but Not Out

Let’s be real: the Texans have had a rough couple of weeks. First, they lost Tank Dell, their rookie sensation, to a brutal ACL tear during a highlight-reel-worthy 30-yard touchdown against the Chiefs. And don’t forget Stefon Diggs, who’s been sidelined since Week 8 with—you guessed it—another ACL injury.

Now, quarterback C.J. Stroud, who’s been an absolute star this season, is left scrambling with a skeleton crew. His go-to guy? Nico Collins, who’s been solid (60 catches, 909 yards, six touchdowns). But the backup crew of John Metchie III and Robert Woods? Let’s just say they’ve been quiet so far.

The Texans tried to patch things up by picking up Diontae Johnson off waivers. Sure, he’s got 31 catches for 363 yards this season, but his time with the Ravens earlier this year didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard—just one catch in four games.

And the bad news doesn’t stop there:

• Jimmie Ward, their star safety? Done for the year.
• Shaq Mason, a key guard? Week-to-week with a knee issue.
• Juice Scruggs and Folorunso Fatukasi? Also on the injured list.

At 9-6, the Texans have to figure this out—and fast—or their postseason hopes could slip through their fingers.

Ravens: Flying High

Meanwhile, in Baltimore, the vibe is totally different. The Ravens are coming off a dominant 34-17 win over the Steelers and are sitting pretty at 10-5, tied for the AFC North lead but with a crucial edge in tiebreakers.

Lamar Jackson? He’s absolutely balling, setting a franchise record with 37 touchdown passes this season. And with Derrick Henry racking up 1,636 rushing yards, this offense is scary good. Henry’s even got a shot at another 2,000-yard season if he keeps up this pace.

“Every year with Lamar, it feels like he could be the MV”

–Patrick Ricard

Now, Baltimore’s not without its own injury concerns, but they’ve got the depth to handle it:

• Zay Flowers (shoulder) and Nelson Agholor (concussion) missed some practices, but they might still suit up.
• Tyler Linderbaum (back) is trending in the right direction, which is a big win for their offensive line.

What’s at Stake?

This isn’t just another game—it’s crunch time.

• For the Texans: A win means they’re still in the playoff hunt. A loss? Well, let’s just say it’ll be a long offseason.
• For the Ravens: A win could lock up the AFC North title and guarantee at least one playoff game at home.

Keys to the Game

Texans’ Game Plan

• Spread the Love: With limited receiving options, expect Stroud to lean on tight end Dalton Schultz (48 catches) and running back Joe Mixon (33 catches).
• Lock It Down: Defensively, they need to contain the dynamic duo of Jackson and Henry. Discipline is key—one misstep, and it’s game over.

Ravens’ Advantage

• Exploit the Gaps: With Houston’s defense looking like a patchwork quilt, this is Baltimore’s chance to strike big, especially through the air.
• Run the Show: Henry’s ground game could open the floodgates for Lamar to do what he does best—turn small plays into big ones.

History Isn’t on Houston’s Side

If you’re a Texans fan, this stat might sting: the Ravens have dominated this matchup with a 10-2 record, including two playoff wins. Houston hasn’t beaten Baltimore since 2014.

Prediction

On paper, this looks like the Ravens’ game to lose. They’ve got the depth, the momentum, and the star power. But don’t count out the Texans just yet—Stroud has been resilient all year, and he might have one more trick up his sleeve.

Still, with their roster depleted, it’s hard to bet against Baltimore in this one. Expect the Ravens to clinch a big win and keep their postseason momentum rolling.

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