Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Predictions December 25th 2024

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves December 25th 2024

In a Western Conference matchup, the Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14) will travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks (19-10) at the American Airlines Center. The Timberwolves come into this game on a three-game losing streak, while the Mavericks have won their last two games.

Tip-off is scheduled for 2:30 ET and can be seen on ABC. According to oddsmakers, the Mavericks (-210) are currently 5-point favorites over the Timberwolves (+173). The over/under line for the game is sitting at 222 points.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
• Where: Dallas at American Airlines Center
• Date: Wednesday, December 25th
• Betting Odds DAL -5, MIN +173 | DAL -210 O/U 222

The Timberwolves Can Win If…

The Timberwolves fell to 14-14 on the season after a 117-104 road loss to the Hawks on Monday. Minnesota, favored by 3 points, failed to cover the spread, and the game’s total of 221 points narrowly missed the O/U line of 223.5.

Atlanta’s 12-0 run early in the game put Minnesota in a deep hole, but the Timberwolves responded by outscoring the Hawks 36-17 in the 2nd quarter. The teams played evenly in the 3rd, but Atlanta pulled away in the 4th, matching their 1st-quarter dominance by outscoring Minnesota 35-19.

The Timberwolves struggled offensively in their loss to the Hawks, shooting just 42.9% from the field and 32.6% from beyond the arc. Despite their shooting woes, they managed to hit 14 threes in the game.

Naz Reid led the way with 23 points, including 10 in the 3rd quarter, while Julius Randle added 19 points and 13 rebounds. Anthony Edwards contributed 16 points, with 7 coming in both the 1st and 3rd quarters.

Defensively, the Timberwolves had a strong 2nd quarter, holding the Hawks to just 17 points, but they struggled in the 1st and 4th, allowing 35 points in each. Overall, they gave up 117 points in the loss, with Atlanta shooting 53% from the field.

Minnesota also had trouble defending the three, as the Hawks hit 18 threes at a 50% clip. The Timberwolves sent Atlanta to the line 26 times, where they made 21 free throws. On the defensive boards, Minnesota collected 27 rebounds, giving up 6 offensive boards, while also recording 12 steals and 3 blocks.

• Across their ten previous road games, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 107 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.
• Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have an over/under record of 1-4 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Mavericks Can Win If…

The Mavericks improved to 19-10 on the season with a 132-108 win over the Trail Blazers on Monday. Playing at home, Dallas entered the game as -13 point favorites and covered the spread, while the total of 240 points went over the pre-game line of 230.5.

After trailing 31-28 at the end of the 1st quarter, Dallas took control by outscoring Portland 34-22 in the 2nd quarter and 40-23 in the 3rd. The Mavericks led 102-76 heading into the 4th quarter, allowing them to coast to victory despite being outscored 32-30 in the final period.

The Mavericks shot 53.3% from the field in their win over the Trail Blazers, with Luka Doncic leading the way with 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. Daniel Gafford was perfect from the field, scoring 23 points, while Kyrie Irving added 20 points, hitting 2 threes at 33.3%.

Dallas made 12 threes as a team, shooting 33.3% from beyond the arc. Gafford and Doncic both scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter, with Gafford adding 12 in the period.

Despite a rough 1st and 4th quarter, the Mavericks’ defense held the Trail Blazers to 108 points in their win. They gave up 31 points in the 1st quarter but tightened up in the 2nd and 3rd, allowing just 22 and 23 points, respectively.

Dallas did a great job defending the three, holding Portland to just 8 made threes on 27% shooting. The Mavericks also sent the Blazers to the line 19 times, where they made 14 free throws. Defensively, Dallas recorded 10 steals and 4 blocks.

• The Mavericks are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 4-1 straight-up.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 8-2.
• In their last five games, the Mavericks have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Not only do we have the Mavericks winning this one by a score of 135-123, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Mavericks at -5.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 222 and our model has the Timberwolves and Mavericks finishing with a combined 258 points. Our pick is to take the over.

Timberwolves Seek Offensive Revival Against Mavericks

The Minnesota Timberwolves aim to snap a three-game losing streak and find offensive consistency as they face the surging Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night in Dallas.

Timberwolves’ Offensive Woes

Minnesota (14-14) has struggled to find its rhythm on offense, averaging just 109.3 points per game—23rd in the NBA. They’ve failed to score 110 points in regulation in their last 14 games, and Monday’s 117-104 loss to the Atlanta Hawks highlighted their struggles.

The Wolves fell into an early 27-9 hole and never recovered, as turnovers and missed opportunities around the rim plagued their performance.

Head coach Chris Finch acknowledged the team’s lack of consistency:

“We start the fourth, and it just became a shot-making contest. We missed about five wide-open shots, and they made theirs at the other end of the floor, and then turnovers hurt us late.”

Naz Reid provided a spark off the bench with 23 points, and Julius Randle added 19 points and 13 rebounds. Despite these contributions, the Wolves’ offense continues to lack cohesion.

Randle expressed his frustration:
“To be honest, man, I don’t know. Like when we’re playing with pace, moving, all that stuff, it works sometimes. We’ve just got to do it more consistently.”

Mavericks on a Roll

The Mavericks (18-9) have won 14 of their last 17 games and boast a 10-4 record at home. Dallas enters the game following a dominant 132-108 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday, fueled by Luka Doncic’s return from a left heel contusion.

Doncic scored 27 points in the victory and has historically performed well against Minnesota, averaging 24.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in 16 career games.

Head coach Jason Kidd emphasized the team’s need to maintain focus despite their recent success:

“We’re in a good seat, but still a long way to go. The West is too tough. We’re not satisfied yet.”

Center Daniel Gafford added a spark off the bench against Portland, scoring 23 points on perfect shooting from the field (7-for-7) while adding energy and enthusiasm.

“I feel like I’m on top of the world,” Gafford said. “It gives me a chance to yell and get the blood flowing, too.”

Dallas also features guard Klay Thompson, who is on the verge of passing Reggie Miller (2,560) for fifth on the NBA’s all-time 3-pointers list. Thompson needs just two more 3-pointers to reach the milestone.

Key Matchups

For the Timberwolves:

• Anthony Edwards: The Wolves’ leading scorer will need to replicate his 37-point effort from their October loss to Dallas.
• Julius Randle: Consistency and leadership from Randle will be crucial in stabilizing Minnesota’s offense.

For the Mavericks:

• Luka Doncic: Doncic’s ability to control the game will be pivotal against a struggling Timberwolves defense.
• Daniel Gafford: Gafford’s energy off the bench could provide a critical edge in a matchup where depth matters.

Previous Meeting

The Mavericks defeated the Timberwolves 120-114 on Oct. 29 in Minnesota. Kyrie Irving led Dallas with 35 points, while Edwards paced the Wolves with 37.

Outlook

Minnesota’s struggles on offense will be tested against a Dallas team that thrives at home. To stay competitive, the Wolves will need to capitalize on their opportunities early and contain Doncic. The Mavericks, meanwhile, will look to maintain their momentum and take advantage of Minnesota’s inconsistency.