Navy Midshipmen vs Oklahoma Sooners Picks and Predictions December 27th 2024

Navy Midshipmen vs Oklahoma Sooners December 27th 2024

ESPN is handling the TV coverage for the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, where the Oklahoma Sooners and Navy Midshipmen will face off. Kick-off is set for 12:00 ET from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, although it is technically a neutral site. The over/under line is at 44.5 points, and the Sooners are the -8.5-point favorites. Oklahoma comes in with a 6-6 record, while Navy is 8-3 on the season.

Oklahoma vs. Navy Key Information

• Teams: Sooners at Midshipmen
• Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth
• Date: Friday, December 27th
• Betting Odds OKL -290 | NAVY +240 O/U 44.5

The Sooners Can Win If…

Oklahoma enters Week 1 against Navy with a 6-6 record. They are 4-3 at home and 1-3 on the road this season. The Sooners have been favored in four of their 12 games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +2.8 points per game, and they are 5-6 against the spread.

Oklahoma’s ATS record is 2-2 as the favorite and 3-4 as the underdog. At home, they are 2-1 against the spread when favored and 1-3 as the underdog. On the road, they’ve gone 2-1 ATS as the underdog and 0-1 as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is 44.5 points. Oklahoma’s games have averaged 45.9 points, with an average over/under line of 48.5 points. They are 5-6 against the over/under this season, with eight games featuring higher lines than this week’s total.

Oklahoma’s offense has been underwhelming heading into week 10, averaging just 24.3 points per game, which ranks 70th nationally. They are 94th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is low at 35.2%, and they are 118th in passing yards, with 167.6 per game. Jackson Arnold has thrown for 1,421 yards with a passer rating of 89.

Arnold has 12 touchdown passes and three interceptions this season. Oklahoma is 13th in rushing attempts, averaging 41.8 per game, but they rank 71st in rushing yards, with 161.9 per game. Jovantae Barnes leads the team with 577 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Oklahoma’s defense, ranked 25th nationally, has allowed 21.6 points per game this season. They’ve been strong against the run, giving up just 107.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 19th in the country.

In their recent game against LSU, Oklahoma allowed 37 points and 395 total yards, including 285 passing yards and three passing touchdowns.

• The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Oklahoma Sooners have gone 4-6 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Midshipmen Can Win If…

Navy enters their Week 12 matchup against Oklahoma with an 8-3 record, going 4-1 on the road and 3-2 at home. They’ve been favored in six of their eleven games, posting a 5-1 record as the favorite.

Their ATS record stands at 7-3, with a +9.1 average scoring margin. Navy is 5-1 against the spread as the favorite and 4-1 ATS on the road this season.

The over/under line for this week is 44.5 points. Navy’s games have averaged 55.5 points, with an average over/under line of 50.2 points. Their over/under record is 6-4, with eight games featuring higher lines than this week’s total.

Navy’s offense has been strong on the ground, averaging 249.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the nation. They are 15th in rushing attempts, with 45.1 per game. Heading into week 1, they are 30th in points scored, with 32.3 per game, and we have them ranked 27th in our offensive power rankings.

Eli Heidenreich leads the team with 402 rushing yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and has scored three touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Horvath has thrown for 1,154 yards and 11 touchdowns, with four interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 108.

Navy’s defense comes into this week ranked 23rd nationally, allowing 23.2 points per game. In their recent win against East Carolina, they gave up 20 points and forced one interception. The defense allowed 350 total yards, including 219 passing yards and two touchdowns, while holding East Carolina to 131 rushing yards on 34 attempts.

Opponents have averaged 220.6 passing yards per game against Navy, completing 58.9% of their throws. On the ground, Navy’s defense has allowed 162.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 110th nationally, on an average of 36.5 rushing attempts per game.

• Across Navy’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Navy has a record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread sits at 5-4-1 in these matchups, while posting a 5-5 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our projections have Oklahoma winning their week one matchup against Navy by a score of 28-18. The over/under line is set at 44.5 points, and with a projected total of 46 points, we recommend taking the over.

For a point spread pick, we like Oklahoma to cover as -8.5 point road favorites.

Navy Seeks Historic 10th Win Against Oklahoma in Armed Forces Bowl

The Navy Midshipmen aim for a rare 10-win season as they face the Oklahoma Sooners in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday in Fort Worth, Texas.

A Surreal Matchup for Navy’s Coach

For Navy head coach Brian Newberry, the Armed Forces Bowl is a homecoming of sorts. A native of Norman, Okla., Newberry grew up cheering for the Sooners.

“It’s going to be surreal seeing them across that sideline,” Newberry said. “I’m excited about it. Can’t wait for it.”

Navy (9-3) enters the game after a commanding 31-13 win over rival Army and looks to secure just the sixth 10-win season in program history. The Midshipmen last achieved the milestone in 2019.

This is Navy’s first bowl appearance against an SEC opponent since the 1955 Sugar Bowl, where they blanked Ole Miss 21-0.

A Rare Opportunity

“When you come to Navy, you’re not expecting that you’re going to be playing Oklahoma,” said Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. “If you would have told me that when I committed here, I thought that would’ve been pretty cool.”

Horvath, who has rushed for 1,091 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, leads a Navy team ranked seventh nationally in rushing offense (249.3 yards per game). He recorded five 100-yard rushing games this season, including a 204-yard performance in the win over Army.

Oklahoma Looks to Avoid Losing Season

Oklahoma (6-6) enters its 26th consecutive bowl game, the second-longest active streak behind Georgia’s 28. The Sooners, however, needed a stunning upset of then-No. 7 Alabama to reach bowl eligibility and are fighting to avoid their second losing season in three years.

The Sooners boast one of the top rushing defenses in the nation, allowing just 154.9 yards per game (12th in FBS). However, key defensive players, including consensus All-American linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman Jr., are expected to miss the game as they prepare for the NFL Draft. Additionally, linebacker/defensive back Dasan McCullough has entered the transfer portal.

Linebacker Kip Lewis, who will play a larger role in Stutsman’s absence, is familiar with the kind of challenge posed by Navy’s triple-option offense.

“I’m from east Texas, so I’ve played Wing-T back in high school,” Lewis said. “It’s been a minute since I played it, but it brought me back to my roots.”

Offensive Challenges for the Sooners

Oklahoma’s offense will also be short-handed. Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is set to make his first start since mid-October after Jackson Arnold transferred to Auburn.

The Sooners have struggled with injuries at wide receiver throughout the season, and several receivers who missed significant time have since entered the transfer portal. There is hope that Deion Burks, who has played in only one of the past eight games, will be available.

Key Matchups

For Navy:

• Blake Horvath: The Midshipmen’s offensive success hinges on Horvath’s ability to exploit Oklahoma’s depleted defense.
• Navy’s Secondary: The Midshipmen’s opportunistic defense, which leads the nation with 20 interceptions, will look to disrupt Oklahoma’s passing game.

For Oklahoma:

• Kip Lewis: Lewis will need to step up against Navy’s triple-option offense, which places immense pressure on linebackers.
• Michael Hawkins Jr.: The freshman quarterback must manage the game effectively to give the Sooners a chance against Navy’s defense.

Check out the latest John Wooden Award Odds & Predictions for detailed analysis and updates.

Historical Context

This marks just the second meeting between Navy and Oklahoma. The Midshipmen won the first matchup 10-0 in Norman in 1965.

Outlook

The Armed Forces Bowl provides a unique clash between Navy’s triple-option attack and Oklahoma’s traditionally strong defense, albeit a shorthanded one. Navy’s cohesive rushing game and opportunistic defense give them an edge, but Oklahoma’s athleticism and pride in avoiding a losing season could make this a tightly contested game.