Broncos vs Bengals: Playoff Hopes on the Line

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos December 28th 2024

The over/under line is currently sitting at 50 points as the Bengals are favored on the money line at -177. The Broncos and Bengals will face off on Saturday, December 28th at 4:30 ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Bengals are -3 point favorites on the point spread, and this week 17 AFC matchup can be viewed on NFLN.

Denver vs. Cincinnati Key Information

Teams: Broncos at Bengals
Where: Paycor Stadium Cincinnati
Date: Saturday, December 28th
Betting Odds CIN -177 | DEN +150 O/U 50

The Broncos Can Win If…

Heading into week 17, the Broncos sit at 9-6, giving them a 78.6% chance of making the playoffs. They currently rank 7th in the AFC and 20th in our power rankings. Denver is 5-2 at home and 4-4 on the road, including a 34-27 loss to the Chargers in week 16. Before that, they had won four straight, including a 31-13 victory over the Colts in week 15.

Denver has a +5.5 scoring margin and is 11-4 against the spread. They are 7-0 ATS as favorites and 4-4 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 10-5, with the over hitting in four straight games. Their games have averaged 42.9 points, with an average O/U line of 40.7.

Heading into week 17, the Broncos rank 22nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in passing attempts per game (34) but sit 22nd in passing yards per game, averaging 205.5. On the ground, they average 108.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 19th, on 26.1 attempts per game. Denver is 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37.7% success rate, and they rank 20th in red zone conversion percentage.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions December 28th 2024

In week 16, Bo Nix threw for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 29 of 40 passes without an interception. Marvin Mims Jr. led the team with 62 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Audric Estime had 48 rushing yards and a touchdown. Denver scored 17 points in the first half against the Chargers but managed only 3 points in the 4th quarter.

In their 34-27 loss to the Chargers, the Broncos’ defense allowed 380 total yards and 117 rushing yards on 28 attempts. They gave up 263 passing yards on 23 completions, with the Chargers averaging 8.5 yards per attempt through the air. Despite forcing one interception, Denver allowed two passing touchdowns and a 74.2% completion rate to the Chargers. Opponents also converted on 50% of their third down attempts against the Broncos.

Denver’s defense managed two sacks in the game and had a +4 advantage in quarterback hits, but they lost the tackles for loss battle by -1.

Denver will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 3-0.
Denver has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Denver went 7-3 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Bengals Can Win If…

The Bengals have won three straight games, including a 24-6 victory over the Browns in week 16. Cincinnati was favored by 10 points and covered the spread, improving their record to 7-8. They rank 15th in our NFL power rankings and have a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs heading into week 17.

Against the spread, the Bengals are 9-6 this season, with an average scoring margin of +2 points per game. Their O/U record is 10-5, with their games averaging 54.4 points compared to an average line of 46.6.

Joe Burrow has been on fire for the Bengals, throwing for 252 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 16 against the Browns, without an interception. He posted a passer rating of 134, bouncing back from a 2-interception game in week 15. Burrow’s top target, Ja’Marr Chase, had 6 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown in week 16, following a 94-yard performance in week 15 and a 177-yard game in week 14. Chase Brown led the rushing attack with 91 yards on 18 carries.

Heading into week 17, the Bengals rank 5th in our offensive power rankings. They are 6th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.2 points per game, and lead the league in passing yards with 267.3 per game. On the ground, they rank 29th in rushing yards per game and 26th in attempts.

In their 24-6 win over the Browns, the Bengals’ defense was dominant, allowing just 125 passing yards and forcing two interceptions. Cleveland managed only 273 total yards, with 148 of those coming on the ground, although they averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. The Bengals defended the run well, holding the Browns to 24 yards rushing attempts.

Cincinnati’s defense recorded five sacks and limited the Browns to a 25% conversion rate on third down. They also kept Cleveland out of the endzone, not allowing a single touchdown through the air.

Spanning across their last three games, Cincinnati have gone 2-1. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
Cincinnati has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). Across these games, their ATS record was just 4-5-1, while posting an over-under record of 8-2.

The Lean

Our projected score for this week 17 matchup between the Bengals and Broncos is 29-25 in favor of Cincinnati. Even though the Broncos are the favorite at +3, we have the Bengals pulling off the upset and covering the spread. For this game, we are going with the Bengals to cover as home favorites.

As for the best over/under pick, with the line sitting at 50 points, we have a projected score of 54 points, making the over a great pick in this matchup.Broncos Look to Punch Playoff Ticket While Bengals Fight to Stay Alive

It’s crunch time in the AFC, and Saturday’s matchup between the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals is loaded with drama. The Broncos are just one win away from their first playoff appearance since 2015, while the Bengals are battling to keep their postseason hopes alive in a must-win scenario.

Broncos: So Close, Yet So Far

The Broncos (9-6) have been grinding all season and are now on the brink of breaking an eight-year playoff drought. A win on Saturday would seal the deal, but last week’s 34-27 loss to the Chargers was a tough pill to swallow. Denver blew a 21-10 lead, snapping their four-game win streak.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been a bright spot, though. The first-year QB looked sharp against the Chargers, completing 29 of 40 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Despite the loss, Nix is showing he’s got what it takes to lead the Broncos into the future.

And here’s some good news: cornerback Riley Moss is expected to return after missing three games with an MCL injury. His presence alongside All-Pro Pat Surtain II will be huge in trying to slow down Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ electric offense.

“We’ve got to finish the season the right way to get toward our destiny.”

–Pat Surtain

Bengals: Win or Go Home

For the Bengals (7-8), the stakes couldn’t be higher. They need to win this game, win their season finale, and hope other teams (looking at you, Dolphins, Colts, and Broncos) drop the ball to keep their playoff dreams alive.

The good news? Joe Burrow is on an absolute tear. He leads the league in completions (384), passing yards (4,229), and touchdowns (39). Oh, and he’s the first QB in NFL history to throw for three touchdowns and 250 yards in seven straight games. Casual, right?

Burrow will be looking to his partner-in-crime Ja’Marr Chase, who’s chasing history of his own. Chase leads the NFL in receptions (108), receiving yards (1,510), and touchdowns (16) as he eyes the coveted receiving Triple Crown.

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And don’t sleep on running back Chase Brown, who’s been quietly putting up 100+ scrimmage yards in five straight games. This Bengals offense is stacked.

On defense, Cincinnati has been making plays, forcing nine takeaways in the last two games. That kind of momentum could be the X-factor they need in this do-or-die matchup.

Matchups to Watch

Joe Burrow vs. Denver’s Secondary
- With Riley Moss back alongside Pat Surtain II, the Broncos will try to slow down Burrow, but let’s face it—stopping him is easier said than done.
Bo Nix vs. Bengals’ Defense
- The rookie QB has to stay poised against a Bengals defense that’s been feasting on turnovers lately.
Ja’Marr Chase’s Game-Changing Ability
- Chase is a highlight waiting to happen. If he gets going, it’s going to be a long day for Denver.

What’s at Stake?

For Denver: A win means they’re in the playoffs. Simple as that.
For Cincinnati: It’s do or die. A loss ends their season, while a win keeps their hopes alive for at least one more week.

Prediction

The Broncos have the pieces to pull this off, especially with their defense getting a boost from Riley Moss. But the Bengals have Joe Burrow, who’s playing like a man on a mission. Add in the home crowd and a red-hot Ja’Marr Chase, and Cincinnati might just find a way to stay alive.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 31, Broncos 27

This game has all the makings of a thriller. Both teams are desperate, and neither can afford to slip up. Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions December 28th 2024