Missouri Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Picks and Predictions December 30th 2024

Missouri Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes December 30th 2024

The Missouri Tigers are the -2.5 point favorites as they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. Kick-off is set for 2:30 ET from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, with ESPN handling the broadcast. The over/under line is at 43.5 points. Iowa comes in with an 8-4 record, while Missouri is 9-3 on the season.

Iowa vs. Missouri Key Information

Iowa enters Week 1 against Missouri with an 8-4 record. They’ve gone 5-1 at home but are 2-3 on the road. The Hawkeyes have been favored in 10 of their 12 games, going 7-3 as the favorite.

Iowa’s over/under record is 8-3, with their games averaging 45.1 points. This week’s line is 43.5, and their average over/under line has been 40.2 points.

Their ATS record is 5-5-1, with a +10.9 average scoring margin. At home, they are 3-2-1 ATS, and on the road, they’ve gone 2-3.

Heading into week 11, Iowa’s offense is averaging 28 points per game, placing them 49th in the country. They rank 69th in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing attack is the strength of the offense, averaging 200.6 yards per game on 38.3 attempts.

Kaleb Johnson leads the team with 1,537 rushing yards, 21 touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Quarterback Cade McNamara has thrown for 1,017 yards, six touchdowns, and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 76.

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Iowa’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 7th nationally by allowing just 17.1 points per game. Against Nebraska, they gave up only 10 points, though they allowed 20 first downs and 334 total yards, including 144 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 190 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 118.1 rushing yards per game on 30.8 attempts against Iowa, while quarterbacks have posted a 76.6 passer rating, completing 62.6% of their passes for an average of 196.2 yards per game.

Missouri enters this week’s game against Iowa with a 9-3 record, having gone 5-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. They’ve been favored in six of their 12 games, going 6-0 as the favorite. At home, they are 4-0 when favored and have a perfect record overall.

The Tigers are 7-3 against the spread, with a +9 average scoring margin. They’ve covered in four of five home games and are 5-1 ATS as the favorite this season.

This week’s over/under line is 43.5 points. Missouri’s games have averaged 49.2 points, with an average line of 50 points. They are 4-6 against the over/under this season.

Missouri’s offense ranks 45th in scoring, averaging 29.1 points per game, and they are 40th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10. Their third-down conversion rate is impressive, ranking 16th nationally at 46.7%. The Tigers focus on the run game, averaging 39.9 rushing attempts per game, and they are 58th in rushing yards, with 172.6 yards per game.

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Brady Cook leads Missouri’s passing attack with 2,248 yards and a 63.3% completion rate. He has thrown nine touchdowns and two interceptions, with a passer rating of 94. Theo Wease Jr. has 809 receiving yards on 55 catches. Nate Noel leads the ground game with 804 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored three touchdowns.

Missouri’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 17th nationally by allowing just 20.1 points per game. They’ve given up 134 rushing yards per game and 185.5 passing yards, ranking 37th in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of 83.3 and are completing 59.1% of their throws against Missouri.

In their recent game against Arkansas, Missouri’s defense allowed 21 points but kept Arkansas’s passing attack out of the end zone. They allowed 229 passing yards and 148 rushing yards on 35 attempts.

Our projections have Iowa winning this week one matchup against Missouri by a score of 24-20. Iowa comes into the game as the +2.5 point underdogs, and we like their chances to pull off the straight-up win.

With the over/under line set at 43.5 points, we are projecting a combined 44 points, so the over is the best play for this matchup.

Star Players Sit Out as Iowa Battles No. 19 Missouri in Music City Bowl

The Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 19 Missouri Tigers face off Monday in the Music City Bowl in Nashville, Tenn., with both teams navigating significant roster changes due to injuries, transfers, and NFL draft preparations.

Iowa’s Quarterback Situation

Iowa (8-4) welcomes back quarterback Brendan Sullivan, who has been sidelined with a sprained ankle since Nov. 8. Sullivan, who stepped into the starting role after Cade McNamara suffered a concussion against Northwestern, has completed 24 of 35 passes for 344 yards and two touchdowns this season.

“He feels fully confident,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said. “The injury is in the history now. This has been a good period where he’s getting some work.”

Backup quarterback Jackson Stratton is also available, having led Iowa to wins over Maryland and Nebraska. McNamara has since entered the transfer portal.

Changes in Iowa’s Backfield

Star running back Kaleb Johnson has opted to prepare for the NFL draft, leaving Iowa’s ground game in the hands of Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson. Moulton led the Hawkeyes with 377 yards and two touchdowns on 70 carries, while Patterson added 235 yards on 54 carries.

Missouri’s Offensive Adjustments

Missouri (9-3) enters the game without several key offensive weapons. Wide receiver Luther Burden III is preparing for the NFL draft, and tight end Brett Norfleet and receiver Mookie Cooper are out due to season-ending surgeries.

Quarterback Brady Cook, despite battling a high ankle sprain and a hand injury this season, will lead the Tigers’ offense. Cook has thrown for 2,248 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions while also rushing for 169 yards and five scores.

With Burden absent, Theo Wease Jr. (55 catches, 809 yards, three touchdowns) will shoulder more responsibility in the passing game.

“They have some veteran players where it really counts,” Ferentz said. “The quarterback is an outstanding player.”

The Ground Game Battle

Missouri’s ground game is back at full strength, featuring running backs Nate Noel (804 yards, three touchdowns), Marcus Carroll (578 yards, 12 touchdowns), and Jamal Roberts (214 yards, three touchdowns). Their effectiveness will be tested against Iowa’s disciplined defense, led by coordinator Phil Parker.

A Clash of Defensive Philosophies

Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz praised Iowa’s long-standing defensive identity under Parker.

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“Their defensive coordinator, we were joking, he’s been there since 1998, that’s older than most of our team,” Drinkwitz said. “Very disciplined, very detailed on the defensive side of the ball.”

Iowa’s Consistency and Legacy

Since 2001, Iowa has missed a bowl game just twice, showcasing its stability under Ferentz’s leadership.

“Coach Ferentz, I have a tremendous amount of respect for him,” Drinkwitz said. “Model of consistency and development.”

Transfer Drama Adds Intrigue

The matchup gained an extra layer of intrigue when Missouri landed transfer quarterback Beau Pribula from Penn State, a player Iowa had been pursuing.

As both teams look to overcome roster challenges, the Music City Bowl promises to be a battle of grit, discipline, and adaptability.