Penn State Nittany Lions vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Picks and Predictions January 9th 2025

Penn State, Notre Dame charge into semifinals in pursuit of elusive title

For Penn State and Notre Dame, the stakes have never been higher. Both storied programs aim to end over three decades of national championship droughts in a high-stakes College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinal showdown at the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. The winner will earn a coveted spot in the CFP national championship game on January 20 in Atlanta, facing either Texas or Ohio State, who clash in the Cotton Bowl Friday night.

Sign Up!

The Journey to the Semifinals

This marks a historic year for college football with the debut of a 12-team CFP bracket. Sixth-seeded Penn State (13-2) enters the semifinals after dominant wins over SMU (38-10) in the first round and Boise State (31-14) in the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State is chasing its third national title, its last coming in 1986.

Seventh-seeded Notre Dame (13-1), on the other hand, secured a statement 23-10 victory over No. 2 seed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, ending a decade-long drought of major bowl wins. With 11 consensus national championships under its belt, the Fighting Irish seek their first since 1988.

“This team embraces the underdog role,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman remarked. “We’ve talked all year about being misfits, and that mindset drives us.”

Key Matchups and Team Strengths

Turnover Margins: A Battle of Ball Security

Turnovers could be the game’s defining factor. Notre Dame boasts the nation’s third-best turnover margin (+18) and forced two critical turnovers against Georgia to secure the win, despite only gaining 244 total yards. Defensive standout Xavier Watts has led the charge with six interceptions and a fumble recovery.

Penn State is no slouch, ranking 20th in turnover margin (+10). Head coach James Franklin noted the parallels between the teams: “They do an excellent job of not beating themselves. That’s a core principle we share, and it sets the stage for a tight contest.”

Notre Dame’s Dual-Threat Quarterback

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard brings versatility to the table with 2,383 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 831 rushing yards this season. Leonard’s mobility shone against Georgia, where he added 80 rushing yards to offset a modest 90 passing yards.

Freeman praised Leonard’s confidence: “He’s grown tremendously in trusting himself. That confidence is key to our success.”

Betting Guides for Our Top Sports

Penn State’s Ground Game and Defensive Power

Penn State’s offense leans on a powerful rushing attack led by Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have combined for 2,041 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns this season.

Defensively, linebacker Abdul Carter has been a game-changer with 21.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. However, Carter’s availability is uncertain due to an arm injury sustained in the Fiesta Bowl. Franklin remains optimistic: “His attitude is great, and it’ll come down to how he feels later this week.”

Historical Rivalry Renewed

The all-time series between these programs is tied at 9-9-1. Their last meeting in 2007 ended in a decisive 31-10 win for Penn State. Notre Dame’s last Orange Bowl appearance dates back to 1996, while Penn State returns to the game for the first time since 2006.

Adding to the intrigue, the two teams have met only once in a bowl game before, with Notre Dame claiming the 1976 Gator Bowl.

Strategies for Victory

Notre Dame: Defense Leads the Way

The Fighting Irish will rely heavily on their defensive prowess, particularly in limiting Penn State’s explosive run game. With their ability to generate turnovers and force opponents into mistakes, Notre Dame has thrived in pressure situations.

Penn State: Balanced Attack and Discipline

Penn State’s path to victory lies in a balanced approach. A dominant running game coupled with disciplined defense will be critical. If Abdul Carter can play, his presence could disrupt Notre Dame’s offense and force Leonard into mistakes.

Weekly College Football Picks

What’s at Stake

For both programs, this game represents a chance to reclaim national relevance. A win here could not only end a decades-long title drought but also solidify the legacy of their respective coaches—Franklin and Freeman.

As Franklin aptly summarized, “It’s about playing to your strengths and staying disciplined. This is the kind of game where every detail matters.”

Conclusion

The stage is set for a thrilling Orange Bowl clash. Whether it’s Penn State’s powerhouse run game or Notre Dame’s turnover-focused defense that prevails, fans are in for a battle of grit, discipline, and determination. One team will take a step closer to championship glory; the other will leave the field with dreams deferred once more.