UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas 2 Odds and Predictions

The UFC returns on January 11th, when we get a rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas at UFC Fight Night 249.

This is actually a pretty loaded weekend for MMA fans and bettors alike, as there’s also the highly anticipated ONE Fight Night 27 to consider.

Still, nothing beats out the UFC, and this weekend’s fight card is a banger. The headliner is set up to be an epic battle, but there are a slew of fights preceding it that you’ll want to watch and possibly even bet on.

Not sure how to bet on UFC Fight Night 249? I’ve got you covered with the latest odds and my top betting pick for every match.

UFC Fight Night 249 Odds

Here are the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 odds at the top MMA betting sites. 

The UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 odds are pretty appealing when it comes to the main card. There is only one fight with odds at -300, which really means pretty much anyone is fair game this weekend.

Ribas and Dern both come in as alluring values. It all depends on how much stock you place in the first meeting and how you think the second installment will go down.

Across the board, this looks like a fun card, and we haven’t even touched on the Prelims yet. You can use my picks above, or keep reading and dive into further explanation for each fight prediction

Of course, I’m not the only betting expert on our site that can help you with MMA wagers.

You can roll with all of my UFC Fight Night 249 betting picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial.

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UFC Fight Night 249 Main Card Predictions

The main card gets rolling at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Amanda Ribas (-189) vs. Mckenzie Dern (+164)

We get a fun rematch as the UFC Fight Night 249 main event, with the favored Amanda Ribas (13-5) looking to best Mckenzie Dern (14-5) for a second time. Should Dern split the series, she could set herself up for a title shot in the women’s strawweight division and possibly down the road we can get a trilogy match.

Ribas won the first go-around, but it was via Decision, so we know Dern can hang with her. Dern also did bounce back nicely by taking out Lupita Godinez back in August, so while her recent form (2-3 over her last five bouts) isn’t great, I’m still encouraged.

Both fighters are 31 and similar builds, but Ribas does have a three-inch reach edge. Dern isn’t a KO threat, but she has seven submissions to her name and can handle business on the floor. Ribas has the edge in striking numbers and has proven to be the more balanced fighter, but I like the idea of a tap coming down this weekend.

All things considered, Dern is a really nice value bet to cap off the night at +164.

Bet: Mckenzie Dern (+164)

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-126) vs. Carlston Harris (+106)

Next up is a pretty underrated bout between Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8) and Carlston Harris (19-6). Ponzinibbio enters as a slight favorite, but the Argentine Dagger is getting a bit long in the tooth at age 38.

He is as vicious as they come (16 KOs), but he can also make you tap (6 submissions). His chin isn’t the strongest, of course, as he’s been knocked out four times in his career. He also loses three inches in reach to Harris and has poor form (1-4) over his last five bouts.

The 37-year old Harris isn’t exactly in his prime, either, and he’s not quite as explosive as Ponzinibbio. He also has a soft chin, as he’s been KO’d thrice and got blasted last May by Kalin Williams.

Ultimately, I don’t particularly trust either of these fighters. However, Ponzinibbio is coming in at an arguable discount and he’s the more tenacious striker with better fight-ending upside.

Bet: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-126)

Cesar Almeida (-275) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+235)

This third match is fairly underrated, but it’s another battle of the olds. Cesar Almeida (6-1) is now 36 years old, but he’ll be taking on a fighter in Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6) who is even older.

Almeida has the edge in striking in this spot and a mild one-reach advantage. In addition,  Cesinha has four career KOs and is coming off an impressive win over Ihor Potieria. His lone loss is to the tough Roman Kopylov, too.

His opponent is still a tall order. Razak Alhassan has six losses on his ledger and most of them have come recently, but his 12 career knockouts tell you he’s still dangerous. I definitely see Judo Thunder as an upset threat, but his recent form (2-5-1) over his last eight fights is not very encouraging.

This feels like a spot to not get too cute in. Almedia looks like a pretty good bet to get the win.

Bet: Cesar Almeida (-275)

Roman Kopylov (-251) vs. Chris Curtis (+211)

I mentioned Roman Kopylov earlier, and he’s also fighting at UFC Fight Night 249. Kopylov (13-3) is the heavy favorite when he takes on Chris Curtis (31-11). Curtis has four more years on Kopylov and he’s a bit shorter, but he also has way more experience.

I’m not sure it matters when being tasked with taming a ferocious beast like Kopylov, though. He brings 11 career KOs to the table and he’s never been knocked out, himself. His weakness has been on the ground to this point, while his only loss since 2022 is a forgivable defeat by the hands of Anthony Hernandez.

This is a matchup of similar styles, as Curtis is a KO threat (17 career knockouts), but he’s only scored one submission in his lengthy career. I still see him as live to stage the upset, but Kopylov is the better, more exciting fighter.

Kopylov feels like the correct call, although I’d stretch my neck for a KO or inside the distance prop bet if you can find it.

Bet: Roman Kopylov (-251)

Austin Bashi (-300) vs. Christian Rodriguez (+250)

Next up is Austin Bashi (13-0), who will put his unblemished MMA record on the line against Christian Rodriguez (11-2). Rodriguez is a solid challenge thanks to his balanced skill-set, but he doesn’t offer the same upside Bashi tends to.

That said, Rodriguez is a solid 4-2 in the UFC, with his only two losses coming against solid fighters in Julian Erosa (submission) and Jonathan Pearce (Decision). He’d been on a four-fight hot streak before succumbing to a Guillotine choke last July.

Bashi is a different animal, though. He’s a highly skilled fighter that is very much on the rise. He’s still just 23 years old and will be making his UFC debut, though, so there is always the chance he could falter.

My gut is he lives up to the hype and gets the win here, though. I’m not super confident in an early finish, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

Bet: Austin Bashi (-300)

Uros Medic (-195) vs. Punahele Soriano (+170)

The last fight on the UFC Fight Night 249 main card is a pretty good one. Bettors can target Uros Medic (10-2) or put their money on Punahele Soriano (10-4).

Medic enters as the mild favorite, as he does have the slight edge in the striking department (5.51 significant strikes landed per minute and 62.56% striking accuracy), but he loses over an inch in reach.

The Doctor has KO upside (8 knockouts) and has never been knocked out or KO’d. His floor game can go either way, but the odds are good that his fight is ending early, one way or another.

That could be music to Soriano’s ears, as he has finishing upside of his own (6 KOs). The problem is his recent form (2-4) is not easy to trust. Story Time is in play for an upset, but my gut says Medic is the one to side with.

Bet: Uros Medic (-195)

UFC Fight Night 249 Preliminary Card Predictions

UFC Vegas 101 officially starts with the Prelims on ESPN+ at 3:00 pm EST.

Jose Johnson (-180) vs. Felipe Bunes (+160)

The Prelims don’t always sound sexy, but this weekend’s event has some good fights in the early portion of the show. Jose Johnson (16-9) and Felipe Bunes (13-7) square off in a potential banger.

These two guys have 21 wins by early stoppage between them, and they can be deadly on the ground or standing up. The overall edge does appear to lie with Johnson, however, as he’s six years younger, has a mild reach advantage, and is the more accurate striker.

Bunes is the more dangerous fighter on the floor (8 submissions), but Johnson’s explosive nature is tough to ignore here.

Bet: Jose Johnson (-180)

Marco Tulio (-500) vs. Ihor Potierira (+375)

This is another good one, as the 30-year old Marco Tulio (12-1) will hope to avoid just his second career MMA loss. The odds indicate he’s not in any real danger, but Ihor Potierira (20-7) is an experienced foe with a versatile skill-set and 15 career finishes.

The Duelist’s recent form is pretty bad, of course, as he’s dropped two fights in a row and four of his last five. He’s also been finished three times during that stretch, showing the once promising Ukraine native could be regressing sharply.

That isn’t ideal in the face of a tough matchup with Tulio, who is quite explosive (8 KOs) and is red hot with eight consecutive wins. This is his UFC debut, of course, so anything can happen.

Still, Tulio is in far better form, is an exciting prospect, and the odds greatly favor him. I’d be shocked if he got taken out in this one.

Bet: Marco Tulio (-500)

Thiago Moises (-185) vs. Trey Ogden (+160)

It feels like Thiago Moises has been around forever, and yet he is impossibly still just 29 years old. He is favored in this bout, and he’ll look to add to a respectable 18-8 mark.

Moises has run hot and cold lately (3-4 over his last seven fights), but all three of his recent wins ended the fight early. He’s a very skilled and versatile fighter, but it looks like he has an even match in Trey Ogden (18-6).

Ogden is not a major threat standing up (0 KOs), but he’s very good on the ground (11 submissions) and he’s been in good form (3-1-1) over his last five fights. That said, Moises is a bit more well-rounded, and is six years younger.

Bet: Thiago Moises (-185)

Jacobe Smith (-450) vs. Preston Parsons (+350)

Another fighter on this card will put a perfect record on the line when Jacobe Smith (9-0) prepares to battle Preston Parsons (11-5). This feels like a classic gatekeeper match, as Smith (7 KOs) is super explosive and seems set up for success in his UFC debut.

Parsons is being thrown to the lions in this spot, as Smith is a dangerous opponent out to prove he belongs. That’s bad news for Smith, who needs this fight to get to the ground to have a chance, and also doesn’t have the best recent form.

Smith is the obvious play here. To chase down a little more value, I’d look for KO or inside the distance bets involving this match.

Bet: Jacobe Smith (-450)

Ernesta Kareckaite (-260) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+220)

The 26-year old Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1) heads into UFC Fight Night 249 as the obvious betting favorite, as she’s landed an insane 7.90 significant strikes per minute and has a massive nine-inch reach edge against her opponent.

Kareckaite did not impress in a Decision loss in her UFC debut, but she looks primed to bounce back against Caliari (8-2). Caliari is also in play here, as she’s a versatile fighter who comes in with a nice four-fight winning streak.

Of course, she’s also making her debut under the UFC banner, and she gives up major size and reach numbers here. All things told, the data and odds point to Ernesta. I’m all for a sprinkling of Caliari due to the price, but this feels like a bad spot for her UFC debut.

Bet: Ernesta Kareckaite (-260)

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-210) vs. Bruno Lopes (+180)

We get another unbeaten fighter in the Prelims, as Magomed Gadzhiyasulov will look to make it to 10-0 when he battles Bruno Lopes (13-1). Lopes only has one loss on his resume, but the 31-year old loses 1.5-inches in reach in this matchup.

Lopes also grades out as the less accurate striker, but he’s been quite explosive and versatile so far in his career. He’s been impressive with 11 of 13 wins coming inside the distance, but he’s tough to trust as he makes his UFC debut.

Gadzhiyasulov got a Decision win over Brendson Ribeiro in his UFC debut back in June, and he’ll aim to keep the good times rolling, as well as stay unbeaten in general. The odds aren’t alluring, but he does grade out as the better fighter.

Bet: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-210)

Fatima Kline (-950) vs. Viktoriia Dudakova (+650)

Last, but not necessarily least, we have one of the biggest favorites of the night in Fatima Kline (6-1) taking on Viktoriia Dudakova (8-1). Kline got off to a 6-0 start to his professional MMA career, but couldn’t get the job done in her UFC debut, losing to Jasmine Jasudavicius last July.

She will attempt to right that wrong this weekend, where Dudakova offers a tougher than credited challenge. Dudakova dropped her first professional loss last August, but got off to a 2-0 start in the UFC and was undefeated before that defeat.

Given the gross pricing and Dudakova’s versatility and finishing ability (6 of 8 wins by stoppage), I don’t mind her as a dice roll at this week’s event.

Bet: Viktoriia Dudakova (+650)

UFC Fight Night 249 Fight Card