Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Picks and Predictions January 12th 2025

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos January 12th 2025

The Broncos are +358 on the money line as they face the Bills in an AFC wild card round matchup. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, has Buffalo as the heavy favorite at -468. The Bills are favored by -8.5 points, with the over/under line set at 47 points. CBS is handling the television coverage of this one.

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Denver vs. Buffalo Key Information

Denver finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 7th in the AFC and 3rd in the AFC West. The Broncos were 6-2 at home but 4-5 on the road. After entering the season 17th in our power rankings, they were able to secure a playoff spot despite losing their last three games. In week 18, they bounced back from losses to the Bengals and Chargers with a 38-0 win over the Chiefs. Denver was favored by 11 points and covered the spread, while the 38 points fell short of the 40.5-point line.

Against the spread, the Broncos were 12-5, including an 8-0 record as favorites. Their average scoring margin was +6.7 points per game. Denver’s O/U record was 11-6, with their games averaging 43.3 points compared to a 41.3-point line.

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Broncos rank 16th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game (25) and 19th in yards per game (324.6). Denver ranks 20th in passing yards per game (212.4) on 33.5 attempts per game, and they are 16th in rushing yards per game (112.2) on 27.1 attempts per game. They rank 13th in 3rd-down conversion rate and are 22nd in red zone efficiency, despite being 11th in red zone attempts.

In his last outing, Bo Nix threw for 216 yards (25/36) without a touchdown or interception in Denver’s win over the Buccaneers. Courtland Sutton led the team with 68 receiving yards, while Tyler Badie rushed for 70 yards on 9 carries. Denver scored 14 points in the first half, but only managed 6 points in the second half.

In their 38-0 win over the Chiefs, the Broncos’ defense was absolutely dominant, allowing just 98 total yards. Kansas City managed only 27 yards on 11 rushing attempts. Denver’s secondary was stingy, allowing just 71 yards passing and not giving up any touchdowns.

The Broncos’ pass rush was relentless, recording five sacks and hitting the quarterback nine more times than the Chiefs. Additionally, Denver held Kansas City to just a 11.1% conversion rate on third down.

With a 13-4 record, the Bills finished the regular season atop the AFC East and 2nd in the conference standings. Buffalo went 5-1 in division play and was a perfect 8-0 at home, but they were just 5-4 on the road. After two straight losses, the Bills closed out the season with three consecutive wins, including a 31-10 victory over the Dolphins in week 2 and a 47-10 win over the Jaguars in week 3. They also beat the Cardinals 34-28 in week 1, though they were unable to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Buffalo has an average scoring margin of +9.2 points per game and is 10-7 against the spread this season. They are 8-5 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-6, with the over hitting in their last two games. The average line in their games has been 46.3 points, while their contests have averaged 52.5 points.

Josh Allen has been on fire to start the season, posting a passer rating of 107 in week 2 and 137 in week 1 before his 142 rating in week 3, where he threw for 263 yards and 4 touchdowns without an interception. Allen has also been well-protected, going without a sack in weeks 2 and 3. Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving in week 3, with 6 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, following his 54-yard performance in week 2.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in our offensive power rankings and is 2nd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 30.9 points per game. They are 9th in both passing (227.9 yards per game) and rushing (131.2 yards per game), despite ranking 22nd in passing attempts. The Bills are 7th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 44.1% success rate.

In their 23-16 loss to the Patriots, the Bills’ defense allowed 232 passing yards on 22 completions. Despite this, they did limit New England to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. Buffalo also defended the run well, allowing just 77 yards on 30 attempts (2.6 yards per attempt). The Bills’ defense recorded one sack and had more QB hits and tackles for loss than the Patriots.

Buffalo’s defense forced New England to settle for field goals on several drives, but the Patriots still managed to score 23 points. The Bills’ defense will look to improve in the red zone in future games, as the Patriots were able to score touchdowns on two of their three trips inside the 20-yard line.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as road underdogs in this week one postseason matchup between the Broncos and Bills. The point spread currently has the Bills as 8.5-point favorites, and with our projected final score being 27-23 in favor of the Broncos, there is a lot of value in taking them to cover at +8.5.

As for the over/under, we have a projected combined score of 50 points, making the over an excellent bet with the line sitting at 47 points.

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Josh Allen, Bills Begin Super Bowl Quest Against Upstart Broncos

The Buffalo Bills, perennial contenders under head coach Sean McDermott and quarterback Josh Allen, begin their pursuit of a long-awaited Super Bowl title as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Their journey starts Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park, N.Y., against the seventh-seeded Denver Broncos, a team making its first playoff appearance since winning Super Bowl 50.

Bills Seek Redemption

The Bills (13-4) are making their sixth consecutive postseason appearance, a remarkable run of consistency that has yet to yield the ultimate prize. Despite winning their wild-card games in each of the past four seasons, Buffalo has reached the AFC Championship Game only once during this stretch.

Head coach Sean McDermott acknowledged the challenges of maintaining high expectations while falling short in the postseason. “It is in our history of not getting to accomplish our ultimate goal year to year,” McDermott said. “But at the end of the day, we’ve had a lot of success, and it’s a hard thing to win in this league.”

Allen and Brady: Offensive Powerhouse

Josh Allen, a dominant force in wild-card games with 13 touchdown passes in five appearances, will again be the focal point of Buffalo’s offense. The unit, coordinated by Joe Brady, finished second in the league in scoring (30.9 points per game) and ranked in the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards.

Allen praised Brady’s work, though he jokingly downplayed his coordinator’s value amid speculation of head coaching interest: “Nothing. Teams should stay away from him.”

To succeed, the Bills must protect the football against Denver’s opportunistic defense. Buffalo allowed the fewest sacks (14) and turnovers (eight) in the league during the regular season. That resilience will be tested by a Broncos defense that led the NFL with 63 sacks and forced 25 turnovers.

Broncos Ride Momentum

The Broncos (10-7) surged into the playoffs with a 38-0 dismantling of a resting Kansas City Chiefs squad in Week 18. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix shined with 321 passing yards and four touchdowns, capping a stellar regular season in which he threw for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns while adding four scores on the ground.

Nix is eager to make his mark in the postseason. “These are the moments that people remember you by,” he said. “We just got to go out there and cut it loose.”

Denver’s defense, led by Nik Bonitto (13.5 sacks) and Jonathon Cooper (10.5 sacks), has been the team’s backbone. Head coach Sean Payton emphasized the psychological toll of a relentless pass rush: “There’s this emotional and psychological toll with a sack that you have to overcome.”

Previous Matchup

These teams last met in November, with Denver pulling out a 24-22 victory in Buffalo. Allen struggled with two interceptions and a lost fumble in that contest, mistakes he’ll need to avoid this time around.

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Injury Report

Both teams enter the game relatively healthy. Denver’s only concerns are backup tackle Frank Crum (illness) and cornerback Damarri Mathis (back). Buffalo’s defensive back and returner Brandon Codrington (hamstring) missed practice Wednesday.

Key Storylines

• Can Josh Allen overcome his previous struggles against Denver’s defense?
• Will rookie Bo Nix maintain his composure in his first playoff start?
• How will Denver’s pass rush fare against Buffalo’s league-best pass protection?

Sunday’s clash promises to be a compelling mix of seasoned contenders and a hungry underdog eager to extend its Cinderella story.