Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kentucky Wildcats Picks and Predictions January 11th 2025

No. 6 Kentucky heads to No. 14 Mississippi St. focused on the glass

Another exciting clash between ranked opponents is set for Saturday as No. 6 Kentucky visits No. 14 Mississippi State in Starkville, Mississippi. This matchup brings together two teams with contrasting strengths, setting the stage for a thrilling Southeastern Conference (SEC) showdown.

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Kentucky’s Road Challenges: A Concern on the Glass

The Wildcats (12-3, 1-1 SEC) have struggled in road and neutral-site games this season, a trend underscored by their recent 82-69 loss to Georgia. In four of their five games away from Rupp Arena, Kentucky has faced double-digit deficits by halftime, a sign of inconsistency on unfamiliar courts.

Rebounding Woes:
Kentucky’s most glaring weakness is its inability to control the boards. They allowed Georgia and Florida to grab 13 and 15 offensive rebounds, respectively, in their last two games. Overall, Kentucky ranks 242nd nationally in offensive rebounds allowed, giving opponents an average of 9.3 extra chances per game.

Head coach Mark Pope recognizes this as a key issue. “It’s almost like the more we talk about it, the more of a challenge it becomes,” Pope admitted. The team continues to emphasize this area in practice, but improvements have been slow.

Mississippi State: A Rebounding Juggernaut

Mississippi State (14-1, 2-0 SEC) enters this game on an eight-game winning streak, powered by their dominance on the offensive glass. Ranked 41st nationally in offensive rebounds per game (13.3), the Bulldogs create second-chance opportunities that often swing games in their favor. They are tied for second in Division I in extra scoring chances, averaging 8.7 per game.

Depth and Balance:
The Bulldogs are a well-rounded team with multiple scoring threats. Seven players average at least seven points per game, and eight players log 15 or more minutes per contest. Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard leads the charge, scoring 17.1 points per game while shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc. Even when Hubbard was held to nine points against Vanderbilt on Tuesday, Mississippi State still secured a 76-64 win, thanks to RJ Melendez’s 19-point performance.

Kentucky’s Offensive Firepower

Despite their rebounding struggles, Kentucky boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, averaging 88.8 points per game (third nationally). Their depth is a major asset, with six players averaging 9.9 or more points per game. Otega Oweh leads the team with 15.7 points per game, but Kentucky’s ability to distribute scoring responsibility makes them a constant threat.

The Wildcats will need to rely on their offensive efficiency to counter Mississippi State’s rebounding dominance. A high-scoring game could help offset any second-chance points allowed to the Bulldogs.

Key Matchup: Offensive Firepower vs. Second-Chance Opportunities

This game presents a fascinating clash of styles. Kentucky will lean on its potent offense, aiming to outpace Mississippi State with their scoring depth and tempo. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will focus on controlling the glass and generating second-chance points to wear down the Wildcats.

What to Watch:

1. Rebounding Battle: Mississippi State’s ability to dominate the boards could expose Kentucky’s biggest weakness.
2. Josh Hubbard’s Impact: Hubbard’s sharpshooting will be critical, especially if Kentucky’s defense focuses on limiting his touches.
3. First-Half Trends: Kentucky has frequently fallen behind early in games, an area they must address to avoid chasing the Bulldogs on the road.

Coaches’ Perspectives

Mark Pope has been candid about his team’s rebounding struggles, calling them a “sign of distraction.” While Kentucky drills the fundamentals in practice, it remains to be seen if they can execute under game pressure.

Mississippi State head coach Chris Jans takes pride in his team’s depth. “We definitely have people capable of stepping up when needed,” Jans said. This flexibility has been a key factor in the Bulldogs’ success.

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Historical Context: Kentucky’s Dominance

Mississippi State faces a daunting historical challenge. The Bulldogs have beaten Kentucky just once in their last 20 meetings, with their last home win dating back to January 15, 2008. However, with a top-15 ranking and home-court advantage, this could be Mississippi State’s best chance to rewrite the narrative.

What’s at Stake

Both teams are vying for SEC dominance, and a win here would solidify their position in the national rankings. For Kentucky, addressing their rebounding woes could signal a turning point. For Mississippi State, maintaining their rebounding edge and balancing their offensive contributions will be crucial.

Prediction

This matchup could hinge on rebounding. If Mississippi State capitalizes on second-chance opportunities, they could edge out a win at home. However, if Kentucky’s offense fires on all cylinders and they manage to mitigate their rebounding issues, they could leave Starkville with a hard-fought victory.

Conclusion

The clash between Kentucky and Mississippi State is a battle of strengths and weaknesses, with each team having a clear path to victory. Whether it’s Kentucky’s offense or Mississippi State’s rebounding dominance that prevails, fans can expect a high-energy, tightly contested game.