Virginia Cavaliers vs Smu Mustangs Picks and Predictions January 15th 2025

Skidding Virginia tries for some vengeance vs. SMU

Virginia looks to break a three-game losing streak as it faces ACC newcomer SMU on Wednesday night in Charlottesville, Va. Both teams enter the contest with contrasting momentum, but Virginia has a chance to redeem itself after falling to SMU earlier this season.

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Virginia’s Tough Start to 2025

The Cavaliers (8-8, 1-4 ACC) have struggled to find their rhythm this season. They are winless in the new year, coming off a challenging West Coast trip that saw them lose to Cal and Stanford by a combined 37 points. This marks Virginia’s worst start to ACC play since the 2008-09 season under former coach Dave Leitao.

Interim head coach Ron Sanchez acknowledged the team’s defensive shortcomings, stating, “It just comes down to having a little more defensive pride and a little more pride with toughness on the glass.” His comments come on the heels of an 88-65 loss to Stanford, where Virginia was outscored 40-12 in the paint and committed 12 turnovers.

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Challenges in the First Meeting

When these teams first met on Dec. 7 in Dallas, SMU (12-4, 3-2 ACC) made an emphatic ACC debut with a 63-51 win. Virginia managed to keep the game close until the final 10 minutes when SMU’s defense shut them down, holding the Cavaliers without a field goal.

Isaac McKneely was the lone bright spot for Virginia, scoring 17 points. However, Virginia’s struggles on the boards were evident as they were outrebounded by 11—a recurring issue that Sanchez aims to address.

SMU: A Team on the Rise

The Mustangs enter the game with momentum after dismantling Georgia Tech 93-71 last Saturday. SMU jumped out to a dominant 50-19 halftime lead, with Chuck Harris scoring 21 points and B.J. Edwards adding 19. The Mustangs shot an impressive 50% from the field and from beyond the arc (14 of 28).

SMU head coach Andy Enfield made a pivotal lineup change against Georgia Tech, starting Harris in place of 6-foot-11 Yohan Traore. The adjustment paid dividends, providing defensive versatility and boosting offensive efficiency.

“Defensively, we felt like the small lineup would help us and give us probably our best offensive lineup to start the game,” Enfield explained. “And it worked.”

Players to Watch

• Virginia: Isaac McKneely continues to be a key offensive contributor for the Cavaliers. To secure a win, Virginia will need additional scoring support and improved interior defense to prevent second-chance opportunities for SMU.
• SMU: Kario Oquendo, who scored 21 points off the bench in the first matchup against Virginia, remains a game-changer. The Mustangs also rely on Samet Yigitoglu, who contributed 16 points in their last meeting.

Keys to the Game

For Virginia, rebounding and defensive intensity are non-negotiable. Limiting SMU’s three-point shooting and forcing turnovers will be critical to slowing the Mustangs’ high-powered offense. Offensively, the Cavaliers must establish consistency and avoid prolonged scoring droughts like the one that doomed them in the previous matchup.

For SMU, maintaining the momentum from their win over Georgia Tech will be essential. The smaller lineup has proven effective, but rebounding against a determined Virginia squad may require adjustments. SMU’s depth, highlighted by players like Oquendo, gives them an edge in high-pressure moments.

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What’s at Stake?

This game is pivotal for both teams. Virginia hopes to gain its footing and avoid falling further in the ACC standings, while SMU looks to solidify its position in its first ACC season. A win for the Mustangs would validate their recent adjustments and reinforce their potential as a dark horse in the conference.

Prediction

While Virginia has the home-court advantage, SMU’s offensive versatility and confidence make them tough to beat. The Cavaliers must play a near-perfect game defensively and execute better on offense to secure a much-needed victory.