2025 Tour Down Under Odds and Predictions

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The 2025 UCI Cycling season gets underway on January 21 as the 25^th edition of the Tour Down Under begins in Adelaide, South Australia. This six-stage cycling event, which ends on January 26, features some of the sport’s top stars looking to get an early jump on the year and pick up some wins before the Spring Classics.

It should come as no surprise that Australia has won the most Tour Down Under events (14) as they show up and show out in their homeland’s biggest cycling event. However, the 2024 event saw Great Britain’s Stephen Williams win the race.

The Brit will return this year to defend his title. He’s considered the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 Tour Down Under as of this writing. The 2023 Tour Down Under winner, Jay Vine, will also participate this year and is considered a contender for the overall victory.

Let’s take a look at the latest cycling odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our 2025 Tour Down Under predictions.

Tour Down Under Course

As mentioned, the Tour Down Under is a six-stage event with no days off. The race begins in Prospect on Tuesday, January 21 and finishes on King William Road in Adelaide on Sunday, January 26.

The 2025 Tour Down Under spans 824.6 km (512.4 miles) and traverses along this route:

Stage 1 (January 21): Prospect to Gumeracha

The opening stage is a 150.7 km (93.6 mi) route that some would classify as hilly. Yet, it has a mixture of sprints and smaller climbs beginning in Prospect. Sprinters will get things going in Williamstown at about 41 km into the day.

The peloton will turn its attention towards the Adelaide Hills before finishing with two circuits in the town of Gumeracha. This is the first time that the TDU will finish in Gumeracha.                                 

Stage 2 (January 22): Tanunda to Tanunda

The second day is a 128.8 km (80.0 mi) circuit through Barossa, which has been a mainstay in the TUD since the beginning. The start and finish will be in Tanunda, but there’s going to be plenty of action between then.

Greenok will be the home of two sprints that come between the 31 and 50 km points. Menglers Hill is a Cat 1 climb and the biggest of the day. The average incline is 6.9 percent, while the max gradient is 12.2 percent.

Stage 3 (January 23): Norwood to Uraidla

Stage 3 is considered to be the toughest day of the race with three Cat 1 climbs. Two of the climbs reach a max gradient over 20 percent.

The 147.5 km (91.7 mi) route begins in Norwood, heads to Norton Summit and then into the Adelaide Hills even further. A handful of smaller towns dot this course until the finish in Uraidla.

Stage 4 (January 24): Glenelg to Victor Harbor

Stage 4 is the longest day of the Tour Down Under at 157.2 km (97.7 mi). The day starts in Glenelg and is considered to be a scenic route with rolling hills and a finish in Victor Harbor. Don’t let the day fool you as there are some punch Cat 2 climbs that will certainly affect the race.    

Stage 5 (January 25): McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill

Stage 5 is a tour through the wine region that begins in McLaren Vale and runs 145.7 km (90.5 mi) to the finish at Willunga Hill. This is the last day for the climbers and punchers before the flat-stage finale on Sunday. The battle up Willunga Hill could decide the overall winner for the race.

Stage 6 (January 26): Adelaide to Adelaide

The final stage is a 90 km (56 mi) city route through the streets of Adelaide and is for the sprinters looking for one last bit of glory. The overall winner should have already been decided by the end of Stage 5. The finish line will occur on King William Road and should be a furious bunch sprint for the stage win.                             

Tour Down Under Odds

Check out the following Tour Down Under odds:

Defending Tour Down Under champ Stephen Wiliams is the slight odds-on favorite over UAE’s Jhonatan Narvaez. Oscar Onley and Lucas Plapp are the next favorites according the oddsmakers at the time of writing. Jay Vine, the 2023 winner, is a notable contender that’s further down the list compared to Williams and Narvaez.

Tour Down Under Contenders

The following cyclists are widely considered to be the Tour Down Under contenders heading into this race: 

Stephen Williams (+275) 

Israel-Premier Tech’s Stephen Williams won the 2024 Tour Down Under and is back to defend his title, with the hopes of winning a second straight year. That would make him just the second man to accomplish this feat alongside Daryl Impey.

Williams made the following comments about his win last year:

“Winning my first Tour Down Under was an unbelievable moment for me. I’m chasing another strong result to kickstart my 2025 season, and hopefully it will lead to another breakthrough year.”

The TUD victory propelled Williams to his best year as a professional cyclist. He would also go on to win La Fleche Wallone by upsetting the favorites. But that wasn’t all. He also won the Tour of Britain last September, having beat out Oscar Onley by 16 seconds.

Israel-Premier has put a strong team around Williams for this race. George Bennett, Simon Clarke and Michael Woods are a few of his teammates that should help the 28-year-old Brit contend for another TUD victory. Can Williams win two years in a row?

Jhonatan Narvaez (+350) 

The addition of Jhonatan Narvaez to Team UAE has a big impact on this race. First, he was the runner-up in last year’s Tour Down Under. Second, he has a strong team around him that includes fellow contender Jay Vine who won this race in 2023.

Narvaez had three Top 5 finishes in last year’s TUD, but came up short to Williams. It was also his best result on the year. However, Narvaez was on the dysfunctional Team INEOS last year, so that had a lot to do with his ceiling and success.

This year, as long as Tadej Pogacar isn’t racing, Narvaez could be a contender to win wherever he takes a starting line. That includes the 2025 Tour Down Under.

Will Narvaez finally win this race or will he finish behind Williams again?

Oscar Onley (+550) 

Picnic-PostNL rider, Oscar Onley, had an impressive performance at the 2024 Tour Down Under. Sure, he didn’t win the overall General Classification but Onley did finish 4^th overall and won the battle up Willunga Hill.

The 22-year-old was 8^th at the Tour de Suisse, fared well as a support rider in the Tour de France as he finished the race, and was runner-up to Williams at the Tour of Britain.

Like Narvaez, Onley is looking to upstage his fellow countryman and rival by moving up the GC to win the 2025 Down Under. Of the favorites, Onley has the least overall talent on his team. However, he can float by himself up the climbs and compete with the best without any real support.

Will this young rider make 2025 his breakout season?

Luke Plapp (+550) 

Jayco AlUla’s Luke Plapp is the top Australian rider, according to the online betting sites. And, he’s also showed his form already by winning winning the Australian national time trial for a second year in a row. He finished second in the road race but let his teammate win instead. Plapp won the Australian national road race last year.

Speaking of last year, Plapp crashed in Stage 3 and bailed before Stage 4 in the Tour Down Under. So, he’s aiming to show his true potential in his country’s biggest race.

Plapp has the speed on flat stages and hilly routes. The only question is whether or not he can hang with the true climbers in this race.

Best Tour Down Under Betting Value

Jay Vine (+900) comes in as one of the contenders, but is on the same team as Jhonatan Narvaez so it’s going to be challenging to pick which Team UAE rider will be the captain. Furthermore, Vine is coming into this race already beaten by Plapp.

Vine finished 2^nd in the Australian national time trial behind Plapp. He was also 6^th in the road race, which raises more questions for the 2023 Tour Down Under winner.

Furthermore, Vine didn’t compete in this race last year. So, it will be interesting to see if he tries to reclaim the throne as the race winner or if he goes for a supporting role to Narvaez.

If Vine goes for the race win, then his +900 odds offer great value. Unfortunately, we won’t learn more about his form and intentions or instructions until on the roads of Adelaide.

Top Longshot To Win The Tour Down Under

Michael Woods (+4000) For Michael Woods (+4000), this is just his 4^th appearance in the Tour Down Under. He last raced this event in 2019 and finished 7^th. His best result came in 2016, when he finished 15^th. He has five Top 10 results over that span.

Woods is more than capable of winning a stage in the Tour Down Under. And, if he gets enough of a lead by winning that stage, things could get hairy with Israel-Premier Tech.

Woods will definitely support his leader Stephen Williams, but if the team let’s the Canadian fly up the road, he could become a real contender like Sepp Kuss did in the 2023 Vuelta a Espana.

Tour Down Under Predictions

For the first race of the season, the 2025 Tour Down Under is shaping up to be an exciting battle between the top contenders: Williams, Narvaez, Onley, Plapp and Vine.

I’m really intrigued by the duo of Narvaez and Vine on Team UAE Emirates. However, speaking of that squad, former UAE rider Finn Fisher-Black left that team to sign with Red Bull BORA Hansgrohe. He will be the team’s leader for this race and actually has the talent to compete for the victory.

With that said, there have only been two times in the 25-year history of this race that Australia didn’t win the next year after a different country won.

The first came in 2007 and 2008 when Switzerland’s Martin Elmiger won and then Germany’s Andre Greipel won the next year. The second time came when South Africa’s Daryl Impey won in 2018 and 2019. Every other year, Australia bounced back to win this race following a foreigner’s victory.

I like the Australian’s chances this year with Plapp and Vine. In particular, I think Plapp is going to show his full potential in the 2025 Tour Down Under and bring the honor back to his homeland.

If Vine ends up taking control of Team UAE, then I really like his chances to win as well. So, make sure to keep an eye on this and call an audible during the race. For now, I’m taking Plapp.

Bet: Luke Plapp (+550)

Tour Down Under Winners

Simon Gerrans holds the record for most Tour Down Under wins with four. There are a handful of riders that have won two or more Tour Down Under races. However, only Daryl Impey has won this race in consecutive years. 

The following is a list of the most recent Tour Down Under winners. There were now races held in 2021 and 2022 due to Covid: