Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Ohio State Buckeyes Picks and Predictions January 20th 2025

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Ohio State Buckeyes January 20th 2025

ESPN is handling the television coverage for the College Football Playoff National Championship, presented by AT&T, between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Kick-off is set for 7:30 ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with Ohio State coming in as the -8.5 point favorite. The over/under line is at 45.5 points. The Buckeyes have a 13-2 record, while Notre Dame is 14-1 this season.

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Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Key Information

• Teams: Buckeyes at Fighting Irish
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta
• Date: Monday, January 20th
• Betting Odds OHIOST -370 | ND +292 O/U 45.5

The Buckeyes Can Win If…

Ohio State enters the College Football Playoff National Championship with a 13-2 record, going 8-1 at home and 5-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in all 15 games this season, and their average scoring margin is +23.6 points per game.

Against the spread, the Buckeyes are 9-6, with a 5-4 record at home and 4-2 on the road. Their over/under record stands at 7-8, with an average line of 50.5 points and an average total of 48 points per game.

This week’s line is set at 45.5 points. Ohio State has played in 12 games with higher lines and seven games with more points than this week’s total, while two games had lower lines and eight had fewer points.

Ohio State’s offense ranks 10th in points per game, scoring 35.8, as they head into the College Football Playoff National Championship. However, they are ranked 2nd in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Will Howard has thrown for 3,779 yards, with a passer rating of 118, completing 72.6% of his passes. He has 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Ohio State is 10th in passing yards per game, averaging 265.1, and 4th in completion percentage at 71%. Jeremiah Smith leads the receivers with 1,227 yards and 14 touchdowns. On the ground, TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 964 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and has scored 10 touchdowns.

Ohio State’s defense has been a standout unit this season, allowing just 12.2 points per game, the fewest in the nation. They’ve also been tough against the run, giving up only 93.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 9th nationally, and 161.1 passing yards per game, which is 7th best in the country.

In their recent game against Texas, Ohio State allowed 14 points and 341 total yards. Texas rushed 29 times but managed just 58 yards, while the Buckeyes gave up 283 passing yards but also forced an interception.

• Through their last three games, the Ohio State Buckeyes have a record of 3-0. Against the spread, the team is 3-0 in these same games while going 2-1 on the over/under.
• Ohio State has put together a record of 8-2 in their last ten games (regular season). This includes going 6-4 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Fighting Irish Can Win If…

Notre Dame enters the College Football Playoff National Championship with a 14-1 record, going 7-0 on the road and 7-1 at home. They’ve been favored in 13 of their 15 games, holding a 12-1 record as the favorite. As the underdog, they are 2-0 this season.

The Fighting Irish have a 13-2 record against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +22.7 points per game. They are 7-0 ATS on the road and 6-2 at home, covering 11 of 13 games as the favorite.

Notre Dame’s over/under record is 8-7, with their games averaging 51.3 points. Their average over/under line is 47.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 45.5 points.

Notre Dame’s offense has leaned on their rushing attack, ranking 7th nationally with 211.8 yards per game. Jeremiyah Love has rushed for 1,121 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and has scored 17 touchdowns. Overall, the Fighting Irish are 6th in scoring, with 37 points per game, and they are 14th in our offensive power rankings heading into the championship game.

Riley Leonard has thrown for 2,606 yards, completing 66.4% of his passes, with 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Notre Dame ranks 61st in passing yards per game. Jaden Greathouse leads the team with 464 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Notre Dame’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 5th nationally by allowing just 14.3 points per game. They’ve also held opponents to 165.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 8th in the country, and quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of just 58, the 2nd-lowest in the nation.

In their recent game against Penn State, Notre Dame’s defense allowed 24 points but also forced an interception. They gave up 204 rushing yards on 42 carries, while holding Penn State’s passing game to 135 yards.

• Notre Dame will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 3-0. Their over-under record in these games was 1-2.
• Across Notre Dame’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 9-1. Across these games, their ATS record was just 8-2, while posting an over-under record of 6-4.

The Lean

Our pick for this week one matchup between Ohio State and Notre Dame is to take the over, with the line currently set at 45.5 points. We have the final score projected at 46 points, making the over the best play.

Notre Dame comes into the game as +8.5 point underdogs, and while we have Ohio State winning 27-19, we expect Notre Dame to cover the spread.

Weekly College Football Picks from Expert Handicappers

Top Defenses Collide as Ohio State and Notre Dame Battle for CFP Title

The College Football Playoff (CFP) Championship game is the pinnacle of the college football season, and this year, the battle between Ohio State and Notre Dame promises to be one for the ages. These two defensive juggernauts bring contrasting styles, elite playmakers, and storied histories into a high-stakes clash for the national title. Can Notre Dame’s steadfast defense outmaneuver Ohio State’s high-octane offense? Or will the Buckeyes finally claim their first title in a decade?

Ohio State’s Dynamic Offense: Can Jeremiah Smith Shine Again?

Ohio State’s success this season has been largely fueled by their offense, which features a blend of star power and depth. At the center of it all is Jeremiah Smith, the standout freshman receiver whose 1,227 yards and 14 touchdowns this season have propelled the Buckeyes into the championship game.

Despite being limited to just one catch for three yards against Texas in the semifinals, Smith’s impact extends beyond his individual stats. His ability to draw double and even triple coverage opens opportunities for other playmakers like Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka, who combined for over 1,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season.

Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is confident that Smith will rebound. “He’s always a forward-looking guy,” Kelly said. “He’s ready for the next challenge.”

Adding to their offensive arsenal is quarterback Will Howard, who has been in stellar form during the playoffs. With a 73.9% completion rate and six touchdowns, Howard’s efficiency will be key to breaking down Notre Dame’s elite defense.

Notre Dame’s Defensive Prowess: Leonard Moore Leads the Charge

If any team can contain Ohio State’s offense, it’s Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish boast one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking second in both pass defense (165.3 yards per game) and scoring defense (14.3 points allowed per game).

The standout star of their defense is freshman cornerback Leonard Moore. Recently named Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, Moore has been a revelation for the Fighting Irish with 10 pass breakups and two interceptions this season. His ability to play aggressive man coverage will be critical in limiting Smith’s impact.

“We’re not going to change who we are,” Moore said. “We’ll play man coverage like we do every week.”

Notre Dame’s defense has also thrived on turnovers, securing 19 interceptions this season—fifth most in the nation. If they can capitalize on mistakes and create scoring opportunities, they’ll put themselves in a position to win.

Key Battle: Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard vs. Ohio State’s Defense

On the offensive side, Notre Dame is led by quarterback Riley Leonard, a dual-threat playmaker who transferred from Duke. While Leonard’s playoff numbers—514 passing yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions—don’t leap off the page, his ability to extend plays with his legs (145 rushing yards in the playoffs) makes him a unique challenge.

Leonard will face an Ohio State defense that leads the nation in scoring defense (12.2 points per game) and total defense (251.1 yards per game). Cornerback Denzel Burke’s return from injury adds even more firepower to a secondary already equipped to handle Notre Dame’s passing attack.

The Fighting Irish will also rely on running back Jeremiyah Love, who has rushed for 1,122 yards this season. However, his recent struggles—just 65 rushing yards over the last two games—raise questions about his ability to penetrate Ohio State’s front seven.

Scores&Stats Expert Betting Guide

X-Factors That Could Swing the Game

While stars like Smith and Moore will grab headlines, several X-factors could tilt the balance:

1. Offensive Line Play: Notre Dame will be without left tackle Anthonie Knapp, potentially exposing Riley Leonard to increased pressure. Tosh Baker, making his first start of the season, will need to step up against a relentless Ohio State pass rush.
2. Special Teams Impact: Notre Dame’s semifinal win over Penn State came on a clutch 41-yard field goal by Mitch Jeter. In a tight game, special teams execution could make the difference.
3. Turnover Battle: Both teams excel at creating turnovers. Ohio State’s ability to force mistakes from Leonard and capitalize on them could determine the outcome.

Historical Stakes: A Legacy-Defining Moment

For Notre Dame, this game represents an opportunity to end a 36-year title drought. Their last championship came in 1988, and they haven’t played for a title since the 2013 BCS National Championship.

Ohio State, on the other hand, seeks to claim its first national title since 2014. After falling short in their last CFP Championship appearance in 2021, the Buckeyes are hungry to reclaim their spot at the top.

Conclusion

The CFP Championship between Ohio State and Notre Dame is more than a clash of elite programs—it’s a showcase of contrasting styles, generational talent, and the unpredictable drama that defines college football. With both teams boasting top-tier defenses and explosive playmakers, this game promises to be a nail-biter until the very last second. Will Ohio State’s offense prove too much for Notre Dame, or will the Fighting Irish’s defense deliver a title-clinching performance? Football fans around the world can’t wait to find out.