Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim Odds and Predictions

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The old adage that the show must go on, applies to this fight as one of boxing’s most accomplished and feared fighters will still compete, but he will do so against a late-replacement fighter. Originally, the undefeated Naoya “Monster” Inoue (28-0, 25 KOs) was set to take on the unbeaten contender Sam Goodman, but the latter withdrew twice due to cuts suffered in training. 

Instead of cancelling “the Monster show,” Top Rank boxing found a replacement for the bout in Korean journeyman Ye Joon Kim (21-2-2, 13 KOs). This will be Kim’s third bout in Japan. He’s currently 2-0 when fighting in the Land of the Rising Sun. 

For Inoue, he’s been on a historic tear that was punctuated by headlining the first fight at the Tokyo Dome since Mike Tyson’s epic upset against Buster Douglas. Additionally, Inoue has cleaned out two weight classes to become the undisputed champ in the bantamweight and super bantamweight (junior featherweight) divisions. 

Also, on the card is Japan’s rising welterweight prospect Jin Sasaki (18-1-1, 17 KOs) as he takes on a beatable opponent in Shoki Sakai (29-14-3, 15 KOs). 

Let’s take a look at the latest Inoue vs. Kim boxing odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Kim vs. Inoue predictions.

Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim Preview

Check out the tale of the tape for Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim:

Naoya Inoue Recent Fights

I, for one, was looking forward to Inoue vs. Goodman. Not that I thought Inoue would have any problem defeating the undefeated Australian contender, and #4 ranked junior featherweight, but I was looking forward to a more competitive fight than the one we have now. 

No offense to Kim, who I respect for taking this late-notice fight, but he’s not even on Goodman’s level. Sure, there are the rare massive upsets like Douglas over Tyson. However, Inoue is not Tyson. Inoue is a machine who is far too disciplined to let a replacement fighter beat him or even hurt him.

When Inoue enters the ring, he’s determined to knock out his opponent. Japan’s greatest boxer has knocked out 25 of his 28 opponents. He’s stopped nine straight opponents, which includes world champions. 

The last man to go the distance was Nonito Donaire in 2019. Guess what, three years later, Inoue knocked out Donaire in the 2^nd round of their rematch. 

Paul Butler, Stephen Fulton, Luis Nery, and TJ Doheny were all supposed to be top champions and contenders but they ended up being no match for Inoue. 

Monster stopped Butler in the 11^th, Fulton in the 8^th, Nery in the 6^th and Doheny in the 7^th. Butler came the closest to being the 4^th man to survive a full fight with Inoue. 

This will be the 8^th consecutive time that Inoue has fought in Japan. At this point, it would take something historic to get him to compete in another country. Monster has earned the right to take this approach. He’s fighting for history and legacy, not just the money like most other boxers. 

With that said, there’s a rumor that he’s interested in fighting in the United States again. Some people think that could be as soon as this year. 

Inoue has a mandatory title defense against Murodjon Akhmadaliev who was the former IBF and WBA super bantamweight champ. Akhmadaliev lost his IBF title to Marlon Tapales in April 2023. Guess what, Inoue crushed Tapales via 10^th round KO in December 2023, to take that belt as well. 

Naoya Inoue Odds

Inoue is a massive betting favorite for this fight with odds ranging from -4000 to -10000. It’s a bit surprising that most sites don’t have him listed at -10000 odds. This is the second straight fight where Inoue is a massive odds-on favorite. He in the same range for his bout against TJ Doheny in September 2024.

You have to go back to his fight against Stephen Fulton in July 2023, to find odds that are below -1000 for the unbeaten Japanese star. 

Ye Joon Kim Recent Fights

Ye Joon Kim has spent the majority of his pro career fighting in his native country of Korea. He’s won two bouts in a row and is ranked 11^th in the division with the WBO. He captured the WBO Oriental super bantamweight championship last May, with a 5^th round TKO victory over Rakesh Lochchab. 

Kim was also the IBF Asia super bantamweight champion and last held that title in 2016-17. He’s won 17 of his last 18 fights with the lone defeat coming via majority decision in April 2023. That defeat was against a 14-9 fighter in Rob Diezel.

For Kim, this will be the biggest opportunity of his career. If he can pull off a strong showing against the superior fighter, then it could help boost his stock and put him in line for bigger paydays that come against more notable opponents. 

Ye Joon Kim Odds

For Ye Joon Kim, this fight is the only boxing lines that I can find for him. He opened at +1600 and is closing as high as +2000 for this bout. I wouldn’t be surprised if the odds go up as Kim is a massive underdog for this bout, especially as a late replacement. 

Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim Predictions

As mentioned above, I respect Kim for stepping in on late notice and taking on one of the best boxers in the world. Canelo, Crawford, Usyk and Inoue are my Top 4 pound-for-pound boxers in the world today and the order changes on a weekly basis for me. 

With that said, there’s no way that Kim is surviving the full 12 rounds with Inoue. Monster is going to overwhelm Kim with his power and eventually pick up the 26^th KO of his career. 

Bet: Naoya Inoue (-10000)

The Best Inoue vs. Kim Prop Bets

Since Ye Joon Kim is a late replacement, and not viewed as a real threat, many sportsbooks have yet to add their traditional array of boxing prop bets for this fight. We will continue to add them as they trickle out: 

Over/Under 3.5 rounds 

• Over 3.5 (-115)
• Under 3.5 (-115)

The only question about this fight is whether or not Kim can make it beyond 3.5 rounds. I don’t see it happening. Nine of Inoue’s wins have come Under this mark. It’s been a while since it last happened, but that was because Monster was taking on world champions and top contenders. Kim is neither of these. 

I’m taking the Under for this prop bet. 

Bet: Under 3.5 (-115)