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We should start by saying that if you are surprised by the low total on the Green Bay Packers, please take note that Aaron Rodgers has been placed on the COVID-19 list after having tested positive for the virus. So now his backup gets the call.
Injuries are at the center of two of our other games as well, as Jameis Winston is out for the duration and Derrick Henry may not play again this year.
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Baltimore Ravens: Over 27.5 Points (-130) / Under 27.5 Points (+100)
The Play: RAVENS OVER 27.5 POINTS (-130)
John Harbaugh’s record coming off a bye is profitable (9-5 ATS) and one would expect that the Ravens are going to be in a gnarly mood after rolling over in that 41-17 loss to the Bengals. Our guess is that this manifests itself on the offensive side.
There isn’t anything wrong with the ground game; even if you subtracted Lamar Jackson’s substantial contribution, they’re averaging over four yards per carry.
And no one is even close to Jackson when it comes to intended “air yards” per attempt (10.5), and he hasn’t turned the ball over in the red zone yet. What we’re saying is that these guys are perfectly willing to attack down the field. We’re not overly impressed with Minnesota’s defense, and the pass rush that has produced 24 sacks is going to be mitigated.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 4;25 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Green Bay Packers: Over 20.5 Points (-105) / Under 20.5 Points (-125)
The Play: PACKERS OVER 20.5 POINTS (-105)
We don’t know how good Jordan Love is; nobody does. But the Packers, and head coach Matt LaFleur, apparently had enough faith in him to make him a #1 draft choice even with Aaron Rodgers on the roster.
And now he gets the chance he was waiting for; the chance he thought he might get in the early days of training camp, while Rodgers was supposedly expressing a desire to be dealt out of Green Bay.
Love, who ran an offense at Utah State that can be characterized as “up-tempo,” has thrown just seven passes, and those passes came in the opener, a blowout loss to the Saints.
But we can tell you a couple of things. One is that Love will have a full complement of receivers, or close to it, as Davante Adams, Allan Lazard and Marquez Valdez-Scantling are expected to play. And the Packers may also be getting back left tackle David Bakhtiari, who is simply one of the best in the business.
And another thing, naturally,is that the Chiefs have problems stopping people. They are 31st in the league in yards allowed per drive, and dead last in yards allowed per play.
So this may not be a replay of the way it’s been in the recent past, when the Packers folded up without Rodgers.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 1 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: New Orleans Saints: Over 24 Points (-115) / Under 24 Points (-115)
The Play: SAINTS OVER 24 POINTS (-115)
We can’t really sit here and describe the Falcons’ defensive unit as “stout.” But it’s not terrible. It’s kind of middle-of-the-road, in point of fact. or even below. They have allowed 2.59 points per drive, which is more than all but six NFL teams.
Frankly, I would like this total better if Taysom Hill was going to be the starting quarterback for the Saints. But Trevor Siemian has just gotten that call from coach Sean Payton, on the basis that he’s got more starting experience.
Well, Siemian will have the benefit of a two-fisted ground attack (Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram), along with a receiver corps that might be a little healthier.
And listen – Hill, who was a full participant in practice this week, is going to be used. Don’t make any mistake about that. And that will bring a different element into the offense. Maybe that’s the best way he’s deployed; who knows.
We just know that the Falcons are not likely to “stuff” too many plays on the part of New Orleans, which may be 26th in the NFL in yards per drive but is 17th in points per drive, which means they have at least shown some degree of efficiency.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams Team Totals
Time: Sunday, November 7 – 8:20 PM ET
Team Totals Odds: Tennessee Titans: Over 22.5 Points (-115) / Under 22.5 Points (-115)
The Play: TITANS UNDER 22.5 POINTS (-115)
Sure, the Titans have exceeded this total in every game since the season. But that was while they had the services of the best running back in the business, which isn’t the case right now, as he is likely out for the season.
Derrick Henry’s presence accounted for about 37% of Tennessee’s offensive output, and when you have built your offense around a single player, that is a hard thing to compensate for, especially when you consider the yardage this guy got after contact.
So the Titans will likely take to the air a lot more – a significant turn of events, since they ran the ball 47.4% of the time. And the Rams will be there to meet them.
Somebody is going to have to come up big in the Tennessee passing game, because we’re not sure how far either AJ Brown (questionable with knee injury) or Julio Jones is going to get against Jalen Ramsey, who may not have numbers comparable to last season’s but is still permitting just ten yards a completion.
And then, to a pass rush that is second in the NFL in sacks per game, they have added Von Miller to harass Ryan Tannehill. who’s been sacked on 8.3% of his dropbacks, fourth worst in the league.
