Top Five NFL Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football Week 9

The Chicago Bears are customarily such a mess that sometimes we forget that they made the playoffs last season.

If that is going to happen this year, they are going to have to see the rapid development of rookie quarterback Justin Fields.

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But it’s going to be an uphill battle. Fields probably did not have to react to sophisticated coverages all that much at Ohio State, where their spread option often put the opposition back on its heels. He is getting sacked at a pretty high rate as he gets accustomed to the NFL.

In a sense, Ben Roethlisberger, who was playing in the NFL when Fields was just a toddler, is making some adjustments as well. Or rather, some re-adjustments, as his Pittsburgh Steelers know it is best for them to achieve much more balance in the offense.

Read our Bears vs. Steelers betting preview for MNF week 9.

Justin Fields Props Picks: Over 37.5 Rushing Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 37.5 Yards (-110) / Under 37.5 Yards (-120)

Young quarterbacks who are a little confused have a tendency to pull the ball down and run, often too soon. But it’s an instinct. And Fields, who could do that a lot when he was with the Buckeyes, made some things happen with his legs last week against the San Francisco 49ers. He registered 103 yards on ten carries. That was his first 100-yard game, and it was one of the factors that kept the Bears in the game (they lost 33-22).

Of course, we know that Matt Nagy and the offensive staff are probably telling him that they don’t want him taking unnecessary chances by running with the ball, but the truth of the matter is that the Steelers are liable to chase him out of the pocket. Their defense has the fifth highest sack percentage in the league, and TJ Watt (8.5 sacks) is an especially threatening presence. Fields gets sacked a lot (26 times), and to avoid that fate he may have to scramble.

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Najee Harris Props Picks: Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts

MNF Props Odds: Over 19.5 Attempts (-115) / Under 19.5 Attempts (-115)

There is no question as to the motivation of offensive coordinator Matt Canada with regard to the approach that is going to be taken. To have Big Ben standing back there and throwing down after down is going to be disastrous sooner or later, as he really can’t handle it any more. That was part of the rationale behind drafting Harris in the first round out of Alabama, to the surprise of many people.

This running game took a while to get going, but we see an upward trajectory. During the month of October, he had 356 rushing yards, fifth most in the NFL. He had 122 yards against Denver and last week registered 91 against Cleveland. He was the winner of the AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month designation.

The Steelers have run the ball 48% of the time over their last three games. And they are going to be more and more dependent upon what Harris can do.In our book, that means a lot of carries.

Ben Roethlisberger Props Picks: Over 23.5 Completions

MNF Props Odds: Over 23.5 Completions (-105) / Under 23.5 Completions (-130)

Canada has certainly encouraged Big Ben to get rid of the ball quicker, and he’s done that. He’s had an average “pocket time” of 2.1 seconds, which is pretty good, and he has been sacked only 14 times.

There’s a flipside, of course, which is that the ball isn’t traveling far down the field. Roethlisberger averages 6.9 Intended Air Yards per throw, which is 30th among quarterbacks. So while he may indeed get his yards, it’s going to take more completions to get there.

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Chase Claypool Props Picks: Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 21.5 Yards (-110) / Under 21.5 Yards (-120)

I know it sounds somewhat contradictory, considering our words about Roethlisberger’s short passing program, but I just like this guy as a big-play threat. He can literally score from anywhere because he can , and he goes into this game averaging 15.5 yards per catch.

Cole Kmet Props Picks: Longest Reception Under 14.5 Yards

MNF Props Odds: Over 14.5 Yards (-120) / Under 14.5 Yards (-110)

We do not anticipate Fields to be dialing long distance with his tight end out of Notre Dame. Kmet has been targeted an average of only 4.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. And we know that Pittsburgh’s linebackers are pretty fast and effective. Tight ends have caught only 32 passes against the Steelers.

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