PFL Champions Series 1 – Road to Dubai Odds and Predictions

It’s been a fun ride when it comes to my MMA betting picks lately. There’s more where that came from as Bellator and PFL fans unite for an explosive event at Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

The undefeated Usman Nurmagomedov will put his perfect record and Lightweight title belt on the line against Paul Hughes, finishing off an amazing fight card that promises to impress.

Last time out my MMA picks were on point at UFC 311, as I went 3-1 on the main card and 5-2 during the Prelims, capping the night’s action with a stellar 8-3 record. 

If you rolled with me, you were living in the green, and the aim is something similar when PFL Champions Series Dubai: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes fires off.

PFL Champions Series 1 Odds

Here are the PFL Champions Series 1 odds available at most MMA betting sites. 

Some of the PFL Champions Series 1 betting odds are some of the most obscene I’ve seen while covering MMA betting. Seriously, a guy with -2000 odds? It’s just not something you see very often.

There are two astronomical betting favorites like that at this event. Needless to say, betting on the favorite in those specific matches may not be very beneficial to you. And as enticing as the underdog’s price is, the odds may be that way for a reason, so backing the underdog may not be such a good idea, either.

Either way, I will break down all of these fights and try to point you in the right direction if you’re planning on betting on this weekend’s big MMA event.

You can roll with all of my PFL Champions Series 1 picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial.

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PFL Champions Series 1 Main Card Predictions

The main card gets rolling at 9:30 am EST on HBO Max.

Usman Nurmagomedov (-410) vs. Paul Hughes (+255)

Last week we saw another Nurmagomedov put their unblemished record on the line, and at PFL Champions Series 1 it is Usman’s turn. He comes in with an elite 18-0 record, having mopped the floor with the Bellator competition he’s run into to this point.

As most Nurmagomedov prospects tend to be, Usman is highly skilled, versatile, and has the ability to end fights early (14 wins by stoppage). The 26-year old hasn’t been quite as dominant lately, but he comes in as a hefty -410 favorite to get past Paul Hughes.

Hughes (13-1) hasn’t lost since 2020, and the Decision defeat to Jordan Vucenic is the lone loss on his ledger. He’s shown the ability to end fights early, and he’s been especially explosive recently with three of his last four wins coming by knockout.

Hughes is a confident fighter who could shock the world here, but I doubt it happens. This will be just his third fight in the Bellator/PFL ranks, and he’s facing a more skilled talent.

Bet: Usman Nurmagomedov (-410)

Vadim Nemkov (-2000) vs. Tim Johnson (+1000)

Next up is Vadim Nemkov, who had two other prestigious matchups get cancelled. Instead, he’ll settle for Tim Johnson, who he’s an absurd -2000 favorite to take down.

I can’t refute the fact that he’s favored, as Nemkov (17-2) is a punishing fighter with nine KOs to his name. The 32-year old is in fantastic form and hasn’t lost since 2016. His lone KO loss came by the hands of the stout Jiri Prochazka, and he simply will be running into an inferior talent here.

Kudos to Tim Johnson (18-10) for stepping up and taking this fight, but the 39-year old doesn’t stand a chance in this one. He’s eaten six KO losses in his career, and while he has KO upside of his own (10 knockout wins), he’s just 3-4 over his last seven fights and is the far inferior talent in this matchup.

There’s always the chance Tim Johnson surprises Nemkov with some power, but Nemkov has displayed a tough chin and has seen it all at this point. His recent wins include a TKO over Ryan Bader, Decision victories over Corey Anderson and Yoel Romero, and a submission win against Bruno Cappelozza.

Very little suggests he’s about to lose to an aging Johnson.

Bet: Vadim Nemkov (-2000)

Akhmed Magomedov (-270) vs. Nathan Kelly (+185)

We can settle things down a bit with this next bout, which pits Akhmed Magomedov (9-1) against Nathan Kelly (11-2). Magomedov is the clear favorite, but the pricing for this one leaves a lot more doubt than the previous two matches.

To this point, Magomedov has been a floor general, racking up five submission wins and grinding out four more victories via Decision. He’s never been stopped early, but he also has zero KO wins to his name. His recent form is a bit suspect, as he lost in just his second Bellator match, dropping a Decision to Henry Corrales.

Of course, that was Magomedov’s first professional MMA defeat. He’s still a maestro on the canvas, and he’ll hope to dominate Nathan Kelly there.

That is no guarantee, however. Kelly has been about as good, if not better. He hasn’t lost since going 0-2 to start his career back in 2018, and he’s now won 11 straight bouts. That run includes a 2-0 start in Bellator, as well as a 5-0 PFL record.

Along the way, Kelly has displayed immense ability on the mat (5 submissions), as well as some KO ability (four knockouts). Due to his hot run, versatility, and added finishing ability, I don’t mind chasing the value and backing the underdog.

Bet: Nathan Kelly (+185)

Ibragim Ibragimov (-550) vs. Kenny Mokhonoana (+325)

If you hadn’t guessed by now, the PFL Champions Series 1 card is filled with uneven matches – at least when it comes to betting odds. We see it again with Ibragimov (8-0), who has been an absolute menace with six finishes in eight fights.

He obviously lacks high-level experience, but the Russian has yet to lose professionally and has proven he can win in a number of ways. He’s come a long way from his amateur days, where he was undefeated as well, but had just one win by early stoppage.

Ibragimov is the heavy favorite to win, but Kenny Mokhonoana is a problem on the canvas (4 submissions) and comes in with a solid 5-1 record. He has even less experience than his opponent, and he lost his most recent match to Josh O’Connor.

Overall, this matchup favors Ibgragimov, and I see no reason to bet against him.

Bet: Ibragim Ibragimov (-550)

Renat Khavalov (-1750) vs. Cleiver Fernandes (+775)

If you thought we were done with obscene Champions Series 1 betting favorites, you’d be wrong. Renat Khavalov (8-0) is another perfect fighter who is definitely projected to stay out of the loss column.

He has been a force with his fists to this point, generating six knockouts in eight fights. He will be making his PFL debut, but he comes in with an impressive resume, even though he hasn’t fought professionally since delivering a TKO to Hikaru Yoshino in October of 2023.

Cleivr Fernandes (9-1) is the challenger here, and the 29-year old Brazilian has been a problem on the ground (5 submissions). There is a clear contrast of styles here in terms of finishing fights, but I still think this one sets up perfectly for yet another Khavalov victory.

Bet: Renat Khavalov (-1750)

Ahmed Sami (-220) vs. Tarek Suleiman (+160)

This is a much more palatable line, as Ahmed Sami (11-4) and Tarek Suleiman (13-8) both have some warts on their resume. 

Sami has some nice finishing ability (5 KOs, 3 submissions), but his recent form (2-2) is cause for pause. The 30-year old doesn’t have an amazing track record at fending off dangerous submissions or displaying the strongest chin, either.

Both could be a problem against a fighter like Suleiman. The Syrian has lost more fights, but he’s quite versatile and has 11 finishes to his name. If he wins, it’s unlikely to come via Decision, with just one of 13 victories coming that way.

Ultimately, I think this one won’t go the distance, so that may be the best bet. Suleiman is getting a bit long in the tooth at 35, but I like his finishing ability and the fact that he hasn’t lost via early stoppage in four years.

This feels like a solid spot to take a gamble and bet on the underdog.

Bet: Tarek Suleiman (+160)

Mirafzal Akhtamov (-550) vs. Mike Thompson (+325)

We get another lopsided affair when Mirafzal Akhtamov (8-0-1) tries to avoid his first professional MMA defeat. He’s displayed a versatile skill-set and nice finishing ability, while his most recent bout ended in a submission win over Scottie Stockman.

The 31-year old looks like the rightful betting favorite here, as he’s been very dominant across his fights. He’ll be facing Mike Thompson (7-2), who has been submitted once before, and simply doesn’t have the same submission chops Akhtamov provides.

Thompson is a bit more dangerous with his fists, but his one-dimensional skill-set makes him a tough sell here. You could certainly bet on him getting a KO, but I prefer to trust in the guy with more range.

Bet: Mirafzal Akhtamov (-550)

Hadi Omar Al Hussaini (-325) vs. Ruel Panales (+215)

The recent form hasn’t been amazing for Hadi Omar Al Hussaini (5-1-1), as he’s just 1-1-1 over his last three bouts and got submitted by Ziad Ayman in his most recent fight last July.

That doesn’t mean he’s not the correct favorite here, but he’s displayed some vulnerability lately and hasn’t been able to finish anyone early since knocking out Mohamed Salem Awad back in early 2022.

Perhaps that gives Ruel Panales a shot here, as all six of his wins have come by stoppage. He did get knocked out a few fights ago, but I like his aggressiveness and ability to stop the fight in a number of different ways.

Panales didn’t wow anyone in his UFC debut last August, but I like his resume enough to take a shot on him at +215. His massive reach advantage (six inches!) could be the key to this fight.

Bet: Ruel Panales (+215)

John Mitchell (-700) vs. Souhil Tairi (+400)

The 29-year old John Mitchell (9-2) will try to score his 10th win this weekend, when the Irishman takes on Souhil Tairi (7-5-1).

Mitchell has proven to be a versatile fighter, as well as an aggressive one, ending five of his fights early and doing so in three of his last five wins. He can leave himself open to damage, however, as he’s been finished twice now since 2022.

Tairi is experienced, but he’s suffered several losses in a number of different ways. At 33, he’s becoming increasingly harder to trust, while he has nabbed just one finish over the past two years.

While skilled and capable, I’d read the tea leaves here and bet on Mitchell to win and continue his ascent in the sport.

Bet: John Mitchell (-700)

Mostafa Rashed Neda (-170) vs. Haider Khan (+130)

Lastly, we have one of the most evenly priced fights at PFL Champions Series 1, with Mostafa Rashed Neda (9-3) going up against Haider Khan (8-1).

This looks to be a closely contested bout, as Rashed Nada offers elite ground and pounding ability (6 KOs) and is on fire with five straight wins. His last bout gave him three KO victories in a row, when he took out Abdel Rahmane Driai with one punch.

Khan may be a bit tougher to corral, as he is taller than Rashed Neda and a bit rangier. He’s a versatile fighter with four finishes split between KO and submission, and he’s only been KO’d once so far in his career.

The experience and strength factor do favor Rashed Neda, which is troubling when looking at the way he prefers fights to play out. 

Bet: Mostafa Rashed Neda (-170)

PFL Champions Series 1 Fight Card