Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Predictions January 29th 2025

No. 4 Alabama Braces for Tough SEC Showdown vs. No. 14 Mississippi State

Alabama looks to secure its 12th victory in 13 games when it takes on No. 14 Mississippi State in a high-stakes SEC battle Wednesday night in Starkville, Mississippi. Both teams have a lot to prove as they navigate the challenging conference season.

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Alabama’s Momentum and Title Aspirations

The No. 4 Crimson Tide (17-3, 6-1 SEC) is coming off three consecutive wins against strong opponents, including then-No. 8 Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and LSU. With a half-game deficit behind No. 1 Auburn in the SEC standings, Alabama knows every game is critical to its championship hopes.

Despite their recent success, Alabama is showing that there’s always room for improvement. Against LSU, the team struggled early but came alive in the second half thanks to defensive adjustments by head coach Nate Oats. This was particularly evident when star scorer Mark Sears, averaging 18.1 points per game, was benched after going scoreless in the first half.

“We played the guys in the second half that we thought gave us the best chance to win the game, and we won the game,” Oats said, emphasizing the importance of accountability and defensive focus.

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Key Players Fueling Alabama’s Success

• Aden Holloway: The sophomore guard is emerging as a crucial contributor off the bench. Holloway followed up a 22-point game against Vanderbilt with 19 points against LSU. He has averaged 15.4 points over the past nine games, providing a consistent offensive spark.
• Chris Youngblood: After recovering from an ankle injury, Youngblood made his first start of the season, scoring 13 points and grabbing five rebounds in 30 minutes against LSU. The fifth-year transfer brings valuable experience, having started 118 games in his collegiate career.

With a balanced mix of veteran leadership and young talent, Alabama’s depth is proving to be one of its biggest assets.

Mississippi State’s Struggles and Opportunities

The No. 14 Bulldogs (16-4, 4-3 SEC) have hit a rough patch, losing three of their last five games, all to ranked teams: then-No. 6 Kentucky, No. 1 Auburn, and then-No. 6 Tennessee. However, they bounced back with a hard-fought 65-60 overtime win at South Carolina, a game that showcased both their resilience and their vulnerabilities.

Head coach Chris Jans acknowledged the team’s struggles, particularly in shooting and turnovers, but commended their grit. “It wasn’t pretty basketball,” Jans said. “For the people that like the aesthetically pleasing game, this wasn’t fun. But it was a road win in the toughest conference in the country, and we’ll take it.”

Challenges Facing the Bulldogs

• Shooting Woes: Mississippi State shot just 23.1% (6-of-26) from three-point range against South Carolina, highlighting a recurring issue. Star guard Josh Hubbard, the team’s leading scorer at 16.3 points per game, has also been in a shooting slump, hitting just 25.9% over his last six games.
• Turnovers and Rebounding: The Bulldogs were outrebounded 45-30 and committed 17 turnovers in their last game, areas they’ll need to improve to compete with a high-powered Alabama offense.

Key Contributors for Mississippi State

• Josh Hubbard: Despite his shooting struggles, Hubbard has been the Bulldogs’ most reliable scorer, reaching double figures in 19 of 20 games this season. Mississippi State will need him to rediscover his form against Alabama’s tough defense.
• Riley Kugel: Providing critical bench scoring, Kugel has averaged 16 points over the last three games. His ability to deliver in crunch moments has been a bright spot for the Bulldogs.

Coaching Strategies: Contrasting Styles

Both coaches have emphasized resilience and adaptability in their approaches:

• Nate Oats (Alabama): Known for his uptempo style, Oats has focused on defensive adjustments and leveraging the depth of his roster. Benching Mark Sears against LSU was a bold move that paid off, showing his willingness to prioritize team dynamics over individual performance.
• Chris Jans (Mississippi State): Jans leans into his team’s physicality and determination, but he acknowledges the need for cleaner execution. His emphasis on mental toughness will be critical if Mississippi State hopes to upset Alabama.

The Historical Edge

Alabama has dominated the recent series, winning six straight matchups and nine of the last 10. Mississippi State will need to play near-flawless basketball to break that trend, especially against an Alabama team firing on all cylinders.

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Keys to Victory

For Alabama:

1. Maintain defensive intensity, especially in the second half.
2. Continue capitalizing on bench contributions from players like Holloway and Youngblood.
3. Neutralize Mississippi State’s physicality on the boards.

For Mississippi State:

1. Improve shooting efficiency, particularly from beyond the arc.
2. Limit turnovers to avoid giving Alabama easy transition opportunities.
3. Exploit home-court advantage and feed off the energy of the crowd.

What’s at Stake

With Alabama chasing Auburn for the SEC lead and Mississippi State looking to solidify its position in the rankings, this game carries significant implications for both teams. For Alabama, it’s an opportunity to cement their dominance. For Mississippi State, it’s a chance to prove they can compete with the best.

As the SEC season heats up, Wednesday’s matchup promises to be a thrilling clash of styles, talent, and determination.

Final Thoughts

Alabama comes in as the clear favorite, but Mississippi State has shown they can grind out tough wins. With both teams featuring standout players and distinct strengths, fans should expect a competitive and hard-fought game. Will Alabama extend its dominance, or can Mississippi State deliver a statement victory?