Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks and Predictions February 3rd 2025

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks February 3rd 2025

At 8:00 ET, the 5th-place Bucks (-484) will be in Oklahoma City to take on the 1st-place Thunder (-10). Milwaukee has lost three straight and is 26-21 overall, while Oklahoma City is 38-9.

The over/under line is set at 232 and this non-conference matchup will be televised on FDSO.

Bucks vs. Thunder Key Information

• Sport: NBA
• Teams: Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder
• Where: Oklahoma City at Paycom Center
• Date: Monday, February 3rd
• Betting Odds OKC -10, MIL +367 | OKC -484 O/U 232

The Bucks Can Win If…

The Bucks fell to 26-21 on the season after a 132-119 home loss to the Grizzlies on Sunday. Milwaukee, who entered the game as 4-point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 251 points narrowly exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 248.5.

Milwaukee appeared to be in control after a strong 3rd quarter, leading 99-93, but they were outscored 39-20 in the 4th. A key moment came when the Grizzlies went on an 11-0 run, breaking a 35-35 tie and taking a 46-35 lead.

In their 132-119 loss to the Grizzlies, the Bucks connected on 20 three-pointers, shooting 44.4% from deep. Overall, they hit 48.4% of their shots from the field.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists, shooting 66.7% from the floor. Khris Middleton added 20 points, hitting 4 threes at an 80% clip.

Despite a solid defensive effort in the 2nd quarter, the Bucks couldn’t contain the Grizzlies in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 37 and 39 points, respectively, in a 132-119 loss. Milwaukee allowed Memphis to shoot 48% from the field.

The Bucks did well in limiting the Grizzlies’ three-point shooting, holding them to 35% with 14 made threes. However, they struggled on the boards, allowing 22 offensive rebounds. Milwaukee finished with 7 steals and 5 blocks.

• Across the Bucks last ten road games, the team averaged 115 points per game while allowing 117. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-6, while going 5-5 straight-up.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Bucks have gone 4-6 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-8.
• Over their last five games, the Bucks have an over/under record of 4-1 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.

The Thunder Can Win If…

Oklahoma City improved to 38-9 on the season with a dominant 144-110 win over the Kings on Saturday. The Thunder, who were favored by 7.5 points, covered the spread with ease. The game’s total points of 254.5 exceeded the O/U line of 237.5 by 16.5 points.

A key moment came when the Thunder went on a 12-0 run, extending their lead from 58-45 to 70-45. They outscored the Kings 46-24 in the 2nd quarter and finished strong, holding Sacramento to 20 points in the 4th while adding 31 of their own.

In their 144-110 win over the Kings, the Thunder shot 53.3% from the field and hit 19 threes at a 41.3% clip. Aaron Wiggins led the way with 41 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 made threes, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 29 points and 9 assists.

Luguentz Dort contributed 20 points, hitting 6 threes at 60% efficiency. Wiggins scored 14 points in the 4th quarter, and Gilgeous-Alexander added 13 in the 1st.

Even with a rough 3rd quarter, the Thunder’s defense held the Kings to 110 points on Saturday. They were especially strong in the 2nd and 4th quarters, giving up just 24 and 20 points, respectively. Overall, Oklahoma City limited Sacramento to 40% shooting from the field.

The Thunder were excellent at defending the three, allowing just 11 made threes on 25% shooting. They also grabbed 50 defensive rebounds while giving up 9 offensive boards. Oklahoma City finished with 5 steals and 6 blocks.

• Across the Thunder last ten home games, the team averaged 115 points per game while allowing 106. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-5-1, while going 7-3 straight-up.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-2.
• In their last three games, the Thunder have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 1-2 vs. the spread.

The Lean

Coming in as the underdogs at +10, we have the Bucks as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 232, and our model predicts the Bucks and Thunder to score a combined 241 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Bucks, Thunder Set for High-Stakes Rematch of NBA Cup Final

Milwaukee Looks to End Losing Streak Against Surging Oklahoma City

The Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet for the first time since their NBA Cup final showdown on Dec. 17, a game Milwaukee won 97-81. This time, however, the stakes are different as both teams battle for playoff positioning in the highly competitive NBA landscape.

The Bucks, struggling with inconsistency, have lost three straight and enter Monday’s matchup seeking to regain their defensive edge. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on fire, winning 18 of their last 22 games and continuing to assert themselves as a legitimate Western Conference contender.

NBA Cup Final Recap: Bucks’ Defense Stifled Thunder’s Star

In their previous meeting, Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated with:

• 26 points
• 19 rebounds
• 10 assists

More notably, Milwaukee’s Andre Jackson Jr. delivered a defensive masterclass against OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, limiting the MVP candidate to just 21 points on 8-for-24 shooting.

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault acknowledged the challenge posed by Milwaukee’s physical defense:

Oklahoma City’s Explosive Form Since NBA Cup Loss

Since falling to the Bucks in December, the Thunder have been one of the NBA’s best teams. Their 18-4 record in that span has helped them climb to the top of the Western Conference standings.

In their most recent outing, a 144-110 rout of the Sacramento Kings, OKC showcased its depth:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 29 points (in just three quarters)
• Aaron Wiggins: Career-high 41 points

The Thunder have maintained their elite offensive efficiency, ranking top-five in points per game and shooting percentage since January.

However, OKC could be shorthanded on Monday, as All-Star Jalen Williams (wrist), Cason Wallace (shoulder), and Alex Caruso (ankle) are all listed as questionable.

Bucks Struggling to Find Rhythm After NBA Cup Victory

Milwaukee had hoped its NBA Cup championship would be a turning point, but the reality has been different:

• 12-10 record since NBA Cup final
• Three consecutive losses
• Allowing an average of 133.7 points per game during skid

The Bucks’ defense has been a major concern, and their latest setback, a 132-119 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, highlighted their struggles.

With Bobby Portis absent for personal reasons, Doc Rivers has had to experiment with rotations. The team also faces trade speculation ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline, adding further uncertainty.

Rivers addressed Portis’ availability before Sunday’s game:

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Andre Jackson Jr. vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Can Jackson replicate his defensive effort from the NBA Cup final, or will SGA break free this time?
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Impact – The Bucks’ superstar will need another all-around performance to keep Milwaukee in contention.
3. OKC’s Depth vs. Milwaukee’s Defense – If Williams, Wallace, and Caruso remain sidelined, the Thunder’s role players must step up again.

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Final Thoughts

With Milwaukee desperate to halt its skid and OKC aiming to continue its dominance, Monday’s game presents an exciting rematch with postseason implications. Will the Bucks rediscover their defensive identity, or will the Thunder get their revenge?